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Juventude crestJuventude
v
Operario-PR crestOperario-PR

Serie B | Sat 03 Oct, 00:45

Juventude v Operario-PR Stats

Data last updated: Fri 02 Oct 2026, 10:42 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie B clash features Juventude, sitting second in the standings with 53 points, hosting eighth-placed Operario-PR who have 48 points. Juventude's recent form shows some defensive vulnerability, conceding 1.2 goals per game, while Operario-PR boasts a more potent attack, averaging 2.4 goals per match. Operario-PR's attacking and ability to score in recent fixtures set up a compelling tactical battle, with the visitors looking to capitalize on their offensive momentum and Juventude's occasional defensive lapses. The match promises intensity and tactical adjustments from both sides as Operario-PR aims to secure a valuable away victory.

BT4Y best bet

Operario-PR to Win

  • Operario-PR holds a strong of 66.9% to win, with a positive of 42.5%.
  • Operario-PR averages 2.4 goals per game, doubling Juventude's 1.2, highlighting their attacking edge.
  • Juventude concedes 1.2 goals per match, indicating defensive vulnerabilities Operario-PR can exploit.
  • Operario-PR's over 2.5 goals rate is 80%, suggesting open, high-scoring games involving them.
  • Boschilia leads Operario-PR with 13 goals and 4 assists, key to their offensive threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Operario-PR's strong attacking output, averaging 2.4 goals per game with a high over 2.5 goals rate of 80%, contrasts with Juventude's more modest scoring and defensive record. The model values Operario-PR's ability to convert chances, supported by Boschilia's goal and assist contributions. Despite Juventude's higher league position, Operario-PR's recent form and offensive efficiency create a clear statistical edge. The price reflects significant value given the model's 66.9% win probability, making Operario-PR to win a compelling selection for this fixture.

Model Win Probability66.9%
Strong positive
Operario-PR Goals Per Game2.4
Strong positive
Juventude Goals Against Per Game1.2
Positive
Operario-PR Over 2.5 Goals Rate80%
Strong positive
Boschilia Goal & Assist Contribution13 goals, 4 assists
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Operario-PR's attacking prowess and recent form make them a strong candidate for victory despite Juventude's higher league standing. The visitors' ability to create and convert chances, led by Boschilia, combined with Juventude's defensive inconsistencies, suggests Operario-PR can secure an important away win in this Serie B encounter.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Operario-PR to Win

“Operario-PR's offensive efficiency and Boschilia's key role provide a clear pathway to victory, especially given Juventude's defensive lapses. This match could hinge on the visitors' ability to exploit those weaknesses effectively.”

Key Data Signals

Operario-PR to Win evidence

Operario-PR holds a strong of 66.9% to win, with a positive of 42.5%.

Operario-PR averages 2.4 goals per game, doubling Juventude's 1.2, highlighting their attacking edge.

Juventude concedes 1.2 goals per match, indicating defensive vulnerabilities Operario-PR can exploit.

Operario-PR's over 2.5 goals rate is 80%, suggesting open, high-scoring games involving them.

What To Watch In The Data

Operario-PR to Win notes

  • In the last three head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.33, supporting a moderate scoring trend.
  • Operario-PR's 80% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches suggests this fixture could see an above-average goal count, driven by their attacking tempo and Juventude's defensive gaps.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Juventude1.2
Avg goals scored
Operario-PR2.4
Juventude1.2
Avg goals conceded
Operario-PR1.2
Juventude40%
BTTS rate
Operario-PR60%
Juventude40%
Over 2.5 goals
Operario-PR80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
5
Check odds @ 5
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Operario-PR's matches frequently feature goals, with an 80% over 2.5 goals rate and a 60% BTTS rate, indicating open games with scoring from both sides. Juventude's lower scoring and BTTS rates suggest they are less prolific, but the visitors' attacking style should drive goal-scoring opportunities in this fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOperario-PR to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Operario-PR Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
The 39.4% for Operario-PR to Win sits against roughly 24.4% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Operario-PR have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 7 for Juventude.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Juventude

WLLWD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
28 Sep 2026A America Mineiro1-0
19 Sep 2026A Sport Recife1-2
13 Sep 2026H Athletic Club0-2
09 Sep 2026A Criciuma2-0
05 Sep 2026H Atletico Goianiense2-2

Operario-PR

DWDWW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
26 Sep 2026H Ceara2-2
22 Sep 2026A Criciuma2-0
15 Sep 2026A Nautico Recife3-3
10 Sep 2026H CRB3-0
06 Sep 2026A Londrina2-1
Market aligned with main pickOperario-PR to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Operario-PR Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Operario-PR's recent form shows 11 points gained with a strong attacking output of 2.4 goals per game, outperforming Juventude's 7 points and 1.2 goals per game. This momentum and scoring efficiency give Operario-PR a tactical edge going into the match, supporting their chances to secure a win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Juventude Over 2.5
80%Operario-PR Over 2.5
2.33H2H avg goals
In the last three head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.33, supporting a moderate scoring trend. Operario-PR's 80% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches suggests this fixture could see an above-average goal count, driven by their attacking tempo and Juventude's defensive gaps.

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