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Juventude crestJuventude
v
Avai crestAvai

Serie B | Tue 28 Jul, 23:30

Juventude v Avai Stats

Data last updated: Mon 17 Aug 2026, 19:01 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Juventude face Avai in Serie B on Tue 28 Jul, 23:30. Juventude have won five consecutive home league matches, leading at half-time and keeping a clean sheet in every one. Avaí's poor away form, conceding 13 goals in six matches, leaves them vulnerable to Juventude's territorial dominance and attacking efficiency.

BT4Y match pick

Juventude to win

  • At 57/100, Juventude to win implies roughly 64%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 59%.
  • Juventude vs Avaí: Home Strength Meets a Serious Away-Day Problem.
  • Juventude have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Avai.
  • Juventude have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Juventude to win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Juventude sit 2 in the table, while Avai sit 17, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 59% for Juventude to win sits against roughly 64% implied by the current price. Juventude have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Avai. Juventude vs Avaí: Home Strength Meets a Serious Away-Day Problem.

Model chance vs price59% model chance against roughly 64% implied
Negative
Juventude have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points.Visible data support
Positive
Juventude have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Juventude vs Avaí: Home Strength Meets a Serious Away-Day.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Juventude Win is the preferred angle because juventude vs Avaí: Home Strength Meets a Serious Away-Day Problem. Juventude have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Avai. Avaí carry the stronger scoring threat, but Juventude must contribute for BTTS to land.

Main risk

Avaí carry the stronger scoring threat, but Juventude must contribute for BTTS to land.

Key Data Signals

Juventude to win evidence

Juventude vs Avaí: Home Strength Meets a Serious Away-Day Problem.

Juventude have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Avai.

Juventude have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Juventude Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Juventude sit 2 in the table, while Avai sit 17, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Juventude to win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Juventude5.75
    Avg corners for
    Avai2.67
    Juventude9.5
    Avg total corners
    Avai8.33
    Juventude2
    Avg yellow cards
    Avai1
    Juventude13.25
    Avg shots
    Avai8.33
    Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
    2
    Check odds @ 2
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    Over 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 46%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 52%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Over 10.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Juventude1.4
    Avg goals scored
    Avai1.2
    Juventude0.8
    Avg goals conceded
    Avai1.2
    Juventude20%
    BTTS rate
    Avai60%
    Juventude20%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Avai40%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 44% · edge +12.3 pts
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
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    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 29%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 47%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickJuventude to WinBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 64% · edge -4.6 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
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    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Juventude Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 68%
    1.26
    Check odds @ 1.26
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 52%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Juventude to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Juventude

    LWWDW
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 106W 1D 3L
    24 Jul 2026A Botafogo SP2-4
    17 Jul 2026H Cuiaba2-0
    10 Jul 2026H Vila Nova1-0
    06 Jul 2026A Nautico Recife0-0
    28 Jun 2026H Ceara2-0

    Avai

    WDWLL
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 1D 6L
    21 Jul 2026H America Mineiro2-1
    17 Jul 2026A São Bernardo1-1
    12 Jul 2026H Nautico Recife2-0
    06 Jul 2026A Botafogo SP1-3
    28 Jun 2026A Athletic Club0-1
    Market aligned with main pickJuventude to WinBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 64% · edge -4.6 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
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    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
    1.11
    Check odds @ 1.11
    Juventude Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 68%
    1.26
    Check odds @ 1.26
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    4Juventude wins
    1Draws
    5Avai wins
    22 Mar 2026Avai v Juventude2-0
    25 Sep 2023Avai v Juventude0-2
    03 Jun 2023Juventude v Avai3-2
    03 Sep 2022Juventude v Avai1-1
    15 May 2022Avai v Juventude1-2
    19 Jan 2021Avai v Juventude5-2
    Market aligned with main pickJuventude to WinBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 64% · edge -4.6 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
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    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Juventude to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Serie B

    Juventude22
    Played
    Avai0
    Juventude1
    Avg goals for
    Avai-
    Juventude0.5
    Avg goals against
    Avai-
    Juventude16
    Clean sheets
    Avai-
    Market aligned with main pickJuventude to WinBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 64% · edge -4.6 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Load more odds for this section
    Juventude Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 68%
    1.26
    Check odds @ 1.26
    Season data supports Juventude to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    2Juventude3922116511
    17Avai23226511-6
    Juventude sit in position 2, while Avai sit in position 17, so table pressure belongs in the Juventude to win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    20%Juventude Over 2.5
    40%Avai Over 2.5
    3.1H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Juventude sit at 20% and Avai sit at 40% with the H2H average at 3.1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Juventude v Avai prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Competition and hubs

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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