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Juventude crestJuventude
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Avai crestAvai

Serie B | Tue 28 Jul, 23:30

Juventude v Avai Stats

Data last updated: Mon 27 Jul 2026, 05:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Juventude hosts Avaí at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, aiming to extend their remarkable home run of five consecutive wins without conceding. Avaí face a tough challenge given their poor away form, having lost five of their last six on the road and conceding heavily. Juventude's tactical emphasis on defensive solidity and territorial control contrasts with Avaí's need to balance attacking intent with fragile defense. The match promises a tactical battle where Juventude seeks to reassert order after a recent defensive lapse, while Avaí must overcome their away-day struggles to disrupt the hosts' rhythm.

BT4Y match pick

Juventude to Win

  • Juventude has won five straight home league matches without conceding.
  • Avaí have conceded 13 goals in their last six away games, highlighting defensive frailty.
  • Juventude averages 12.2 shots per game with a high proportion inside the box.
  • Avaí's away form includes five losses and only one draw in their last six matches.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Juventude to win based on their dominant home form and superior defensive record, conceding only 0.8 goals per game compared to Avaí's 1.2. Despite the being slightly short, Juventude's control in possession and efficient shot creation inside the box underpin their chances. Avaí's away struggles and defensive vulnerabilities reduce their likelihood of securing points. The model advises cautious staking due to the price sensitivity but acknowledges the strong football read for a home victory.

Home Defensive StrengthJuventude concedes 0.8 goals per game at home
Strong positive
Away Defensive WeaknessAvaí concedes 1.2 goals per game away
Strong positive
Recent Home FormFive consecutive home wins without conceding
Strong positive
Price SensitivityOdds slightly short vs model chance
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Juventude's exceptional home defensive discipline and recent winning streak provide a solid foundation for victory. Avaí's ongoing away difficulties and defensive lapses make it challenging for them to secure points here. The tactical setup suggests Juventude will control the match tempo, making a home win the most plausible outcome.

Main risk

Avaí carry the stronger scoring threat, but Juventude must contribute for BTTS to land.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Juventude's blend of defensive resilience and territorial control at home makes them the clear favorites, while Avaí's away defensive frailty leaves them exposed to a structured home attack.”

Key Data Signals

Juventude to Win evidence

Juventude has won five straight home league matches without conceding.

Avaí have conceded 13 goals in their last six away games, highlighting defensive frailty.

Juventude averages 12.2 shots per game with a high proportion inside the box.

Avaí's away form includes five losses and only one draw in their last six matches.

What To Watch In The Data

Juventude to Win notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 3.1, indicating a moderately open fixture historically.
  • However, Juventude's recent home matches have been low scoring, with a 20% over 2.5 goals rate, contrasting with Avaí's 40%, suggesting potential for a controlled tempo with limited goals unless Avaí disrupt the pattern.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Juventude5
Avg corners for
Avai3.2
Juventude9.2
Avg total corners
Avai9.4
Juventude2
Avg yellow cards
Avai1.2
Juventude12.2
Avg shots
Avai9
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Juventude averages 5 corners per game, reflecting territorial control, while Avaí averages 3.2, indicating less attacking pressure. Juventude commits more fouls and tackles, showing aggressive but structured defense. Avaí's lower card count suggests less defensive aggression but also less control, contributing to their defensive vulnerabilities.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Juventude1.4
Avg goals scored
Avai1.2
Juventude0.8
Avg goals conceded
Avai1.2
Juventude20%
BTTS rate
Avai60%
Juventude20%
Over 2.5 goals
Avai40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 44% · edge +12.3 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 29%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Both teams to score is unlikely given Juventude's recent five-match home clean sheet streak and Avaí's defensive struggles away, conceding in eight consecutive away fixtures. The under 3.5 goals route aligns with Juventude's controlled style and Avaí's tendency to concede, suggesting a low-scoring match with limited goal exchanges.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickJuventude to WinBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 64% · edge -4.6 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Juventude Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.26
Check odds @ 1.26
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
The for Juventude to win reflect a slightly short price compared to the model's 59.1% chance, implying a 63.7% market probability. While this reduces value, the strong home form and defensive solidity justify the selection as a cautious but sensible choice. drift towards 1.70 would enhance value appeal.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Juventude

LWWDW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 1D 3L
24 Jul 2026A Botafogo SP2-4
17 Jul 2026H Cuiaba2-0
10 Jul 2026H Vila Nova1-0
06 Jul 2026A Nautico Recife0-0
28 Jun 2026H Ceara2-0

Avai

WDWLL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 6L
21 Jul 2026H America Mineiro2-1
17 Jul 2026A São Bernardo1-1
12 Jul 2026H Nautico Recife2-0
06 Jul 2026A Botafogo SP1-3
28 Jun 2026A Athletic Club0-1
Market aligned with main pickJuventude to WinBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 64% · edge -4.6 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
Juventude Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.26
Check odds @ 1.26
Juventude's recent form is strong with 10 points from their last five matches, scoring 1.4 goals per game and conceding 0.8, reflecting their defensive strength. Avaí have 7 points in the same period but concede more frequently at 1.2 goals per game, highlighting defensive frailty that Juventude can exploit.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Juventude wins
1Draws
5Avai wins
22 Mar 2026Avai v Juventude2-0
25 Sep 2023Avai v Juventude0-2
03 Jun 2023Juventude v Avai3-2
03 Sep 2022Juventude v Avai1-1
15 May 2022Avai v Juventude1-2
19 Jan 2021Avai v Juventude5-2
Market aligned with main pickJuventude to WinBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 64% · edge -4.6 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The head-to-head record over ten matches shows Juventude with a slight edge, having won four times compared to Avaí's two wins and four draws. The recent away win by Avaí demonstrates they can challenge Juventude, but overall the historical data supports Juventude's home advantage and likelihood to secure victory.
Season team stats

Serie B

Juventude19
Played
Avai19
Juventude1.1
Avg goals for
Avai1.1
Juventude0.6
Avg goals against
Avai1.4
Juventude13
Clean sheets
Avai6
Market aligned with main pickJuventude to WinBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 64% · edge -4.6 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Juventude Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.26
Check odds @ 1.26
Juventude's season stats show a robust defense with only 12 goals conceded in 19 matches, underpinning their home success. Avaí's 26 goals conceded reveal defensive weaknesses, particularly away. Both teams have scored 21 goals, but Juventude's balanced attack and defense favor a home win scenario.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5Juventude32199559
18Avai2019559-5
Juventude sits 5th with 32 points, comfortably above Avaí in 18th with 20 points. This 12-point gap reflects consistent home performance and overall season stability for Juventude, while Avaí's position underscores their struggles, especially on the road, adding pressure to their away performance.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Juventude Over 2.5
40%Avai Over 2.5
3.1H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 3.1, indicating a moderately open fixture historically. However, Juventude's recent home matches have been low scoring, with a 20% over 2.5 goals rate, contrasting with Avaí's 40%, suggesting potential for a controlled tempo with limited goals unless Avaí disrupt the pattern.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Juventude v Avai prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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