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Jordan crestJordan
v
Syria crestSyria

Friendlies | Sun 27 Sep, 18:00

Jordan v Syria Stats

Data last updated: Sat 26 Sep 2026, 07:59 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Jordan hosts Syria in a friendly where both sides have shown attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities. Jordan's recent matches feature a 75% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, while Syria's last outings have all gone over this mark, reflecting open play and defensive lapses. Both teams have struggled defensively, conceding multiple goals per game, setting the stage for a potentially high-scoring encounter. The match will test attacking players like Mousa Tamari and Alaa Al Dali, with tactical openness likely given the friendly status and offensive emphasis.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Jordan's last four matches have seen 75% Over 2.5 Goals rate.
  • Syria has a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent games.
  • Jordan concedes an average of 2.5 goals per game, Syria 4 goals per game.
  • Key attackers Mousa Tamari and Alaa Al Dali provide goal threats and offensive impetus.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Over 2.5 Goals at a 73.1% chance, significantly higher than the implied market chance of 47.6%, indicating strong value. Both teams have demonstrated attacking potency but defensive fragility, with Syria conceding 4 goals per game and Jordan 2.5. Jordan's 75% Over 2.5 rate and Syria's perfect recent record for this market reinforce the likelihood of a high-scoring game. The presence of active attackers like Mousa Tamari and Alaa Al Dali further supports goal-scoring potential. No price warnings apply, making this a solid value bet with standard stake guidance.

Model Chance62.6% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance62.6% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+15 pts)
Positive
Jordan Over 2.5 Rate75%
Strong positive
Syria Over 2.5 Rate100%
Strong positive
Defensive Concession RatesJordan 2.5, Syria 4 goals per game
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with both Jordan and Syria focusing on attack rather than defense, as recent form shows both teams concede frequently. The attacking roles of Mousa Tamari and Alaa Al Dali should create chances, making Over 2.5 Goals a logical choice based on tactical openness and defensive weaknesses.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Over 2.5 Goals

“Jordan and Syria's recent matches reveal defensive vulnerabilities and attacking freedom, making Over 2.5 Goals a compelling selection. The attacking talents on both sides are likely to exploit space, ensuring a lively, goal-rich friendly.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Jordan's last four matches have seen 75% Over 2.5 Goals rate.

Syria has a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent games.

Jordan concedes an average of 2.5 goals per game, Syria 4 goals per game.

Key attackers Mousa Tamari and Alaa Al Dali provide goal threats and offensive impetus.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last five meetings, the average goals scored is 1.8, slightly below the Over 2.5 threshold.
  • However, recent form trends for both teams show a marked increase in high-scoring games, with Jordan and Syria frequently involved in matches exceeding 2.5 goals.
  • This suggests an upward tempo and attacking emphasis likely to produce goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Jordan1.25
Avg goals scored
Syria1
Jordan2.5
Avg goals conceded
Syria4
Jordan75%
BTTS rate
Syria100%
Jordan75%
Over 2.5 goals
Syria100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 31%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Both Jordan and Syria have shown a tendency for high-scoring games, with Jordan's matches exceeding 2.5 goals 75% of the time and Syria's at 100%. Both teams also have high BTTS rates, indicating that goals are likely from both sides. This suggests an open game with multiple scoring opportunities and limited defensive organisation.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Jordan to WinBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Syria to WinBetMGM guide price · model 16%
6
Check odds @ 6
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
The 62.6% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 75% for Jordan and 100% for Syria, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Jordan

LLDD
Last 50W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 2L
08 Jun 2026A Colombia0-2
31 May 2026A Switzerland1-4
31 Mar 2026H Nigeria2-2
27 Mar 2026H Costa Rica2-2

Syria

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
05 Jun 2026A Belarus1-4
Best odds for this sectionJordan to WinBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 67% · edge -7.5 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Syria to WinBetMGM guide price · model 16%
6
Check odds @ 6
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Jordan's recent form includes a 75% Over 2.5 Goals rate with 1.25 goals scored and 2.5 conceded per game, showing openness and defensive vulnerability. Syria's recent matches have all gone over 2.5 goals, conceding an average of 4 goals per game, reinforcing the expectation of a high-scoring encounter. Both teams' form supports the Over 2.5 Goals selection.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

75%Jordan Over 2.5
100%Syria Over 2.5
1.8H2H avg goals
In the last five meetings, the average goals scored is 1.8, slightly below the Over 2.5 threshold. However, recent form trends for both teams show a marked increase in high-scoring games, with Jordan and Syria frequently involved in matches exceeding 2.5 goals. This suggests an upward tempo and attacking emphasis likely to produce goals in this fixture.

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