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Japan crestJapan
v
Venezuela crestVenezuela

Friendlies | Mon 28 Sep, 11:25

Japan v Venezuela Stats

Data last updated: Sun 27 Sep 2026, 08:18 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Japan and Venezuela meet in an international friendly where both sides aim to sharpen their tactical cohesion ahead of upcoming competitive fixtures. Japan's disciplined defensive record contrasts with Venezuela's more open style, suggesting a contest with fluctuating territorial control. Recent form shows Japan averaging 3.5 corners per game, while Venezuela averages 2, indicating a moderately active wide play approach from both teams. The match is expected to feature sustained wing play and set-piece opportunities as both teams seek to exploit flank spaces and test defensive organization.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • Japan averages 3.5 corners per game, Venezuela 2, combining for 5.5 corners on average.
  • Model projects a 69% chance for Over 9.5 Corners, indicating strong value at 2.38 .
  • Both teams show attacking intent with Japan averaging 10.75 shots and Venezuela 9 per game.
  • Player data highlights active wide players like Yuto Nagatomo with 2 shots on target per 90 minutes, supporting wing pressure.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 9.5 Corners as a strong value bet with a 69% chance against an implied 42%, reflecting the teams' tendencies for wing play and set-piece creation. Japan's higher corner average and Venezuela's active attacking midfielders contribute to sustained pressure on the flanks. The data quality is solid with balanced samples for both sides, reinforcing in the corner count projection. This bet aligns with the tactical expectation of a dynamic wide battle generating numerous corner opportunities.

Model Chance57% model chance vs 42% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance57% model chance vs 42% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Japan Corner Average3.5 per game
Positive
Venezuela Corner Average2 per game
Positive
Player Wide ActivityY. Nagatomo 2 SOT/90
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a lively contest with Japan's disciplined wing play and Venezuela's attacking midfielders creating multiple corner chances. The corner count is likely to exceed 9.5 as both teams seek to exploit flanks and generate set-piece opportunities, supported by their recent form and tactical approaches.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corners market

“The corner market here offers a compelling angle given Japan's structured wing play and Venezuela's midfield aggression, which typically forces defensive clearances leading to corners. This match should see sustained wide pressure and set-piece activity.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Japan averages 3.5 corners per game, Venezuela 2, combining for 5.5 corners on average.

Model projects a 69% chance for Over 9.5 Corners, indicating strong value at 2.38 .

Both teams show attacking intent with Japan averaging 10.75 shots and Venezuela 9 per game.

Player data highlights active wide players like Yuto Nagatomo with 2 shots on target per 90 minutes, supporting wing pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • Over the last two meetings, the average goals were 3.5, indicating open play.
  • While this is a small sample, the tempo and attacking intent suggest a match with frequent transitions and wing attacks, which typically increase corner counts, supporting the Over 9.5 Corners trend.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Japan1.5
Avg goals scored
Venezuela1.5
Japan0.25
Avg goals conceded
Venezuela1
Japan25%
BTTS rate
Venezuela50%
Japan25%
Over 2.5 goals
Venezuela50%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 44% · edge +13.9 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 31%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 46%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Both Japan and Venezuela have modest goal-scoring rates but maintain active attacking patterns, with Venezuela showing a 50% over 2.5 goals rate and BTTS rate also at 50%. While goals may be limited, the attacking intent supports frequent attacking sequences that can lead to corners through sustained pressure and wide play.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Friendlies fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 53% · edge +15 pts
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Venezuela Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 32%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Japan to WinBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Japan Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Venezuela to WinBetMGM guide price · model 14%
9
Check odds @ 9
The 57% for Over 9.5 Corners sits against roughly 42% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Japan lead the corner sample at 3.5 per match, with Venezuela lower at 2.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Japan

WWWW
Last 54W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 0D 0L
24 Sep 2026H Uruguay3-1
31 May 2026H Iceland1-0
31 Mar 2026A England1-0
28 Mar 2026A Scotland1-0

Venezuela

WL
Last 51W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 1L
10 Jun 2026A Iraq2-0
06 Jun 2026H Türkiye1-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 32% · edge +12.8 pts
3.11
Check odds @ 3.11
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Venezuela Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 32%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.06
Check odds @ 1.06
Japan to WinBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Japan Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Venezuela to WinBetMGM guide price · model 14%
9
Check odds @ 9
DrawBetfred guide price · model 18%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Recent form data shows Japan with a steady corner average of 3.5 per game and Venezuela at 2, combining for a consistent pattern of wing play and set-piece chances. This form supports the expectation of a corner count exceeding 9.5, as both teams maintain attacking pressure and territorial control fluctuations.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

25%Japan Over 2.5
50%Venezuela Over 2.5
3.5H2H avg goals
Over the last two meetings, the average goals were 3.5, indicating open play. While this is a small sample, the tempo and attacking intent suggest a match with frequent transitions and wing attacks, which typically increase corner counts, supporting the Over 9.5 Corners trend.

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