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Jaguares crestJaguares
v
Deportes Tolima crestDeportes Tolima

Primera A | Sun 11 Oct, 22:05

Jaguares v Deportes Tolima Stats

Data last updated: Sat 10 Oct 2026, 08:55 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Jaguares face Deportes Tolima in a Primera A clash where both teams show contrasting defensive and attacking profiles. Jaguares have struggled defensively but generate significant attacking pressure, while Deportes Tolima maintain a more solid defense and rank higher in the league. The match is poised for active wing play and set-piece battles, with Jaguares pushing to improve their home form and Deportes Tolima aiming to consolidate their top-table position. Tactical emphasis on wide attacks and fouls won suggests a high corner count is likely in this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Over 8.5 Corners

  • Jaguares average 5 corners per match, Deportes Tolima 6.2, combining for over 11 corners on average
  • Model estimates a 75% chance for Over 8.5 Corners with a positive of 17.2%
  • Both teams show attacking intent with Jaguares taking 11.2 shots and Deportes Tolima 17 shots per game
  • Jaguares' aggressive wing play and Deportes Tolima's disciplined defense create frequent corner opportunities

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 8.5 Corners due to both teams' attacking styles and defensive vulnerabilities that lead to frequent corner situations. Jaguares' average of 5 corners and Deportes Tolima's 6.2 per game combine to a high total, supported by strong shot volumes and fouls won. The 75% significantly exceeds the implied market chance, indicating clear value. No data limitations affect , and the match context of open play and tactical wing focus further supports this corner-heavy scenario.

Model Chance72.8% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance72.8% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+15 pts)
Positive
Value Edge72.8% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Average Corners per Game11.2 combined
Strong positive
Shot VolumeHigh for both teams
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a match with frequent wing attacks and set-piece battles that should generate numerous corners. Jaguares' aggressive approach combined with Deportes Tolima's disciplined defense tends to produce many corner situations. The statistical corner averages and tactical context align well with the Over 8.5 Corners pick, making it a solid choice for this fixture.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · corners market

“This fixture’s tactical setup and attacking patterns strongly suggest a high number of corners, with both sides relying on wing play and set-piece opportunities to create chances.”

Key Data Signals

Over 8.5 Corners evidence

Jaguares average 5 corners per match, Deportes Tolima 6.2, combining for over 11 corners on average

Model estimates a 75% chance for Over 8.5 Corners with a positive of 17.2%

Both teams show attacking intent with Jaguares taking 11.2 shots and Deportes Tolima 17 shots per game

Jaguares' aggressive wing play and Deportes Tolima's disciplined defense create frequent corner opportunities

What To Watch In The Data

Over 8.5 Corners notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.7, indicating moderate scoring tempo.
  • However, the corner trend is more pronounced due to tactical emphasis on wing play and fouling, suggesting a higher tempo and frequent set-piece scenarios conducive to exceeding 8.5 corners.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Jaguares1.4
Avg goals scored
Deportes Tolima0.6
Jaguares2.2
Avg goals conceded
Deportes Tolima0.8
Jaguares80%
BTTS rate
Deportes Tolima40%
Jaguares80%
Over 2.5 goals
Deportes Tolima20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +14.3 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 35%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 51%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
While Jaguares average 1.4 goals per game and Deportes Tolima 0.6, the goal-scoring trend is less pronounced than corner generation. Jaguares have a high BTTS rate of 80%, but Deportes Tolima’s 40% BTTS rate and low over 2.5 goals rate of 20% suggest a more cautious scoring outlook, making corners a more reliable attacking metric here.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Jaguares Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
3
Check odds @ 3
Jaguares to WinBetMGM guide price · model 34%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%
2
Check odds @ 2
Deportes Tolima to WinBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Deportes Tolima Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
The 72.8% for Over 8.5 Corners sits against roughly 57.8% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Deportes Tolima lead the corner sample at 6.2 per match, with Jaguares lower at 5.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Jaguares

LLLDD
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 4D 5L
03 Oct 2026A Águilas Doradas0-2
27 Sep 2026H Alianza Valledupar1-2
23 Sep 2026A Independiente Medellin1-2
12 Sep 2026H Fortaleza FC2-2
06 Sep 2026A Junior3-3

Deportes Tolima

DDDDL
Last 50W 4D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 5D 2L
09 Oct 2026A Atletico Nacional0-0
03 Oct 2026H Chico0-0
28 Sep 2026A Fortaleza FC2-2
21 Sep 2026H America de Cali1-1
17 Sep 2026A Once Caldas0-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 50% · edge +10.7 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Jaguares Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
3
Check odds @ 3
Jaguares to WinBetMGM guide price · model 34%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Deportes Tolima to WinBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Deportes Tolima Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Recent form data shows Jaguares have an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals and BTTS at 80%, reflecting open play and attacking intent that often results in corners. Deportes Tolima’s more conservative form with lower over 2.5 and BTTS rates suggests the corners market is a better reflection of match dynamics than goals.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Jaguares Over 2.5
20%Deportes Tolima Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.7, indicating moderate scoring tempo. However, the corner trend is more pronounced due to tactical emphasis on wing play and fouling, suggesting a higher tempo and frequent set-piece scenarios conducive to exceeding 8.5 corners.

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