Football Stats Hub

Jaguares crestJaguares
v
Alianza Valledupar crestAlianza Valledupar

Primera A | Sun 27 Sep, 22:00

Jaguares v Alianza Valledupar Stats

Data last updated: Sat 26 Sep 2026, 07:57 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Jaguares and Alianza Valledupar meet in a Primera A clash where both teams have shown attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities. Jaguares average 1.8 goals scored and conceded per game, while Alianza Valledupar concedes 2.6 goals on average, highlighting an open game potential. Both sides have collected six points recently, suggesting competitive form. The fixture promises a lively encounter with offensive players like A. Zuluaga for Jaguares and M. Martínez for Alianza Valledupar likely to influence the goal tally. Tactical openness and defensive lapses set the stage for multiple goals.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Jaguares and Alianza Valledupar both have 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate recently.
  • Jaguares average 9.33 shots per game with 4 on target, indicating strong offensive pressure.
  • Alianza Valledupar concedes 2.6 goals per match, suggesting defensive frailty.
  • Top Jaguares attackers Rentería and López have high shots and goal threat metrics.
  • Alianza Valledupar’s M. Martínez contributes significantly to their attacking output.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Over 2.5 Goals at 67.5% chance, well above the implied 45.5% from , indicating strong value. Both teams have high recent Over 2.5 rates (80%), and Jaguares’ attacking metrics show sustained pressure with 9.33 shots per game. Defensive weaknesses, especially Alianza Valledupar’s 2.6 goals conceded average, support a high-scoring game. The presence of prolific attackers like A. López further enhances scoring potential. No data limitations or price warnings affect this confident pick.

Model Chance59.8% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+14.3 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Over 2.5 Rate80% both teams
Strong positive
Shots and Offensive PressureJaguares 9.33 shots/game
Positive
Defensive VulnerabilityAlianza Valledupar concedes 2.6 goals/game
Positive
Key PlayersRentería 9 goals, López 0.59 goals/game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking match given Jaguares’ strong offensive output and Alianza Valledupar’s defensive struggles. Jaguares’ key attackers, including Rentería and López, have been consistent goal threats, while Alianza Valledupar’s leaky defense increases the likelihood of multiple goals. This tactical and statistical setup favors Over 2.5 Goals in this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential

“Jaguares’ attacking trio and Alianza Valledupar’s defensive lapses create a fertile ground for goals, making Over 2.5 a compelling choice in this Primera A clash.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Jaguares and Alianza Valledupar both have 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate recently.

Jaguares average 9.33 shots per game with 4 on target, indicating strong offensive pressure.

Alianza Valledupar concedes 2.6 goals per match, suggesting defensive frailty.

Top Jaguares attackers Rentería and López have high shots and goal threat metrics.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last five matches, both teams have recorded Over 2.5 Goals at an 80% rate, indicating a strong trend for high-scoring games.
  • The average goals per game are elevated due to offensive tempo and defensive gaps, with Jaguares’ matches particularly open.
  • This trend panel suggests a continuation of goal-rich encounters in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Jaguares1.8
Avg goals scored
Alianza Valledupar1
Jaguares1.8
Avg goals conceded
Alianza Valledupar2.6
Jaguares80%
BTTS rate
Alianza Valledupar60%
Jaguares80%
Over 2.5 goals
Alianza Valledupar80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 46% · edge +14.3 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both teams have high Over 2.5 rates of 80%, and Jaguares have an 80% BTTS rate while Alianza Valledupar’s BTTS rate is 60%. Jaguares average 1.8 goals scored and conceded, while Alianza Valledupar concedes 2.6 goals per game, pointing to an open game with goals at both ends likely. This combination supports a high-scoring match with multiple goal contributors.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 46% · edge +14.3 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Jaguares to WinBetUK guide price · model 53%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Jaguares Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Alianza Valledupar to WinBetMGM guide price · model 31%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Alianza Valledupar Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The 59.8% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 45.5% implied by the current price (+14.3 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Jaguares and 80% for Alianza Valledupar, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Jaguares

LDDDW
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 4L
23 Sep 2026A Independiente Medellin1-2
12 Sep 2026H Fortaleza FC2-2
06 Sep 2026A Junior3-3
29 Aug 2026H America de Cali2-2
21 Aug 2026H Chico1-0

Alianza Valledupar

LWWLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 6L
19 Sep 2026H Santa Fe1-4
16 Sep 2026A Chico2-1
13 Sep 2026H Junior1-0
03 Sep 2026A America de Cali0-3
30 Aug 2026H Atletico Nacional1-5
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 80% vs implied 78% · edge +1.9 pts
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Load more odds for this section
Jaguares to WinBetUK guide price · model 53%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Jaguares Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Alianza Valledupar to WinBetMGM guide price · model 31%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Alianza Valledupar Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%
3
Check odds @ 3
Recent form data shows both teams have earned 6 points in their last matches, with Jaguares scoring and conceding 1.8 goals per game and Alianza Valledupar scoring 1 but conceding 2.6. Both sides have maintained an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate recently, reinforcing the likelihood of a high-scoring encounter based on current attacking and defensive performances.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Jaguares Over 2.5
80%Alianza Valledupar Over 2.5
1.9H2H avg goals
In the last five matches, both teams have recorded Over 2.5 Goals at an 80% rate, indicating a strong trend for high-scoring games. The average goals per game are elevated due to offensive tempo and defensive gaps, with Jaguares’ matches particularly open. This trend panel suggests a continuation of goal-rich encounters in this fixture.

Loading deeper match data…