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Jagiellonia crestJagiellonia
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Gornik Zabrze crestGornik Zabrze

Ekstraklasa | Sat 10 Oct, 19:15

Jagiellonia v Gornik Zabrze Stats

Data last updated: Fri 09 Oct 2026, 07:55 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Gornik Zabrze lead the Ekstraklasa standings and visit Jagiellonia, who sit mid-table with mixed recent results. Gornik have been defensively solid, conceding just 0.4 goals per game, while Jagiellonia have struggled at the back, allowing 2 goals per match. Gornik's tactical discipline and efficient attack contrast with Jagiellonia's higher scoring but leaky defense, setting up a contest where Gornik's stability and form give them an edge despite playing away. The fixture carries importance for Gornik to maintain their lead and for Jagiellonia to climb the table, adding competitive intensity.

BT4Y best bet

Gornik Zabrze to Win

  • Gornik Zabrze top the league with 22 points, showing strong form.
  • Jagiellonia concede 2 goals per game, highlighting defensive vulnerability.
  • Gornik concede only 0.4 goals per game, indicating defensive strength.
  • Jagiellonia have an 80% Over 2.5 goals rate, Gornik only 40%.
  • Gornik's recent form yields 13 points versus Jagiellonia's 6 in last matches.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Gornik Zabrze to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their league-leading form and defensive solidity conceding just 0.4 goals per game. Jagiellonia's defensive struggles and lower recent points tally support this view. The at 2.6 offer positive value given the implied chance of 38.5%. The model is strong at 70%, and the comprehensive player data further supports Gornik's attacking and defensive balance. No data limitations affect this assessment.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Gornik Defensive Record0.4 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Jagiellonia Defensive Weakness2 goals conceded per game
Negative
Recent Form PointsGornik 13 vs Jagiellonia 6
Strong positive
Odds Value Edge55% model chance vs 40% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Gornik Zabrze's superior defensive record and league-leading form make them the tactical favorite to secure victory. Their ability to limit opponents' chances contrasts with Jagiellonia's defensive frailties, making Gornik's win the most probable outcome based on current data and team dynamics.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and tactical balance

“Gornik Zabrze's disciplined defense and consistent form create a strong foundation for an away win, especially against a Jagiellonia side vulnerable at the back and reliant on high-scoring games.”

Key Data Signals

Gornik Zabrze to Win evidence

Gornik Zabrze top the league with 22 points, showing strong form.

Jagiellonia concede 2 goals per game, highlighting defensive vulnerability.

Gornik concede only 0.4 goals per game, indicating defensive strength.

Jagiellonia have an 80% Over 2.5 goals rate, Gornik only 40%.

What To Watch In The Data

Gornik Zabrze to Win notes

  • In the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 3, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend.
  • Jagiellonia's high Over 2.5 goals rate (80%) contrasts with Gornik's 40%, suggesting that while goals are possible, Gornik's defensive approach may temper the overall goal count, leading to a balanced tempo and scoring pattern.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Jagiellonia1.8
Avg goals scored
Gornik Zabrze1.4
Jagiellonia2
Avg goals conceded
Gornik Zabrze0.4
Jagiellonia80%
BTTS rate
Gornik Zabrze40%
Jagiellonia80%
Over 2.5 goals
Gornik Zabrze40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 62% · edge +8.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 82%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 46%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Jagiellonia's matches frequently exceed 2.5 goals with an 80% rate and 80% BTTS, reflecting their attacking style but defensive openness. Gornik's lower Over 2.5 and BTTS rates suggest a more controlled approach. This contrast indicates potential for goals but also defensive discipline from Gornik, balancing the goal threat.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGornik Zabrze to WinBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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Gornik Zabrze Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The 55% for Gornik Zabrze to Win sits against roughly 40% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Gornik Zabrze have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 6 for Jagiellonia.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Jagiellonia

LLWLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 0D 4L
20 Sep 2026H Legia Warszawa1-3
11 Sep 2026A Wisla Krakow0-2
06 Sep 2026H Slask Wroclaw2-1
03 Sep 2026A Lech Poznan1-2
30 Aug 2026A Raków Częstochowa5-2

Gornik Zabrze

DWWWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 1D 1L
19 Sep 2026A Motor Lublin0-0
15 Sep 2026A Korona Kielce2-0
12 Sep 2026H Lech Poznan2-1
06 Sep 2026A Cracovia Krakow1-0
03 Sep 2026A Raków Częstochowa2-1
Market aligned with main pickGornik Zabrze to WinBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 82%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Gornik Zabrze Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Gornik Zabrze's recent form is strong, accumulating 13 points compared to Jagiellonia's 6 in their latest matches. This momentum reflects Gornik's consistency and ability to secure results, contrasting with Jagiellonia's struggles to convert chances into points, reinforcing Gornik's status as favorites.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Jagiellonia Over 2.5
40%Gornik Zabrze Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
In the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 3, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend. Jagiellonia's high Over 2.5 goals rate (80%) contrasts with Gornik's 40%, suggesting that while goals are possible, Gornik's defensive approach may temper the overall goal count, leading to a balanced tempo and scoring pattern.

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