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Iran crestIran
v
New Zealand crestNew Zealand

World Cup | Tue 16 Jun, 02:00

Iran v New Zealand Stats

Data last updated: Sat 11 Jul 2026, 14:14 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Iran face New Zealand in World Cup on Tue 16 Jun, 02:00. Iran's higher shot volume and sustained pressure should control this opening fixture effectively. While New Zealand have scored heavily against minor opposition recently, their wider record includes eight defeats. Iran possess superior tactical maturity, winning 13 of their last 20 matches.

BT4Y best bet

Requires you to pick whether the home team wins, the away team wins, or the match ends in a draw after 90 minutes

  • At 9/2, Over 2.5 Goals implies roughly 18%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 50%.
  • New Zealand scored in all 6 matches and went over 2.5 goals in every one of them.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 50% for Over that scoring level sits against roughly 18% implied by the current price. New Zealand scored in all 6 matches and went over 2.5 goals in every one of them.

Model chance vs price50% model chance against roughly 18% implied
Strong positive
New Zealand scored in all 6 matches and went.Article support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge +31.8 pts
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over that scoring level is the preferred angle because new Zealand scored in all 6 matches and went over 2.5 goals in every one of them. New Zealand’s conversion rate is sharper, but Iran appear to create more repeatable pressure.

Main risk

New Zealand’s conversion rate is sharper, but Iran appear to create more repeatable pressure.

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

New Zealand scored in all 6 matches and went over 2.5 goals in every one of them.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Iran-
Avg goals scored
New Zealand-
Iran-
Avg goals conceded
New Zealand-
Iran-
BTTS rate
New Zealand-
Iran-
Over 2.5 goals
New Zealand-
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 42% · edge +8 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 32%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 42% · edge +8 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
New Zealand to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Iran Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
New Zealand Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Over 2.5 Goals is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more World Cup analysisrelated match predictionplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Iran

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Iran yet.

New Zealand

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for New Zealand yet.

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 71% vs implied 50% · edge +21 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
New Zealand to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Iran Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
New Zealand Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Iran to WinBetfred guide price · model 43%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Iran wins
0Draws
0New Zealand wins
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 42% · edge +8 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
New Zealand to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Iran to WinBetfred guide price · model 43%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Over 2.5 Goals, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

World Cup

Iran3
Played
New Zealand3
Iran1
Avg goals for
New Zealand1.3
Iran1
Avg goals against
New Zealand3.3
Iran1
Clean sheets
New Zealand0
Best odds for this sectionNew Zealand to WinBet365 guide price · Model 41% vs implied 22% · edge +18.8 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Load more odds for this section
Iran Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
New Zealand Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Iran to WinBetfred guide price · model 43%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Season data supports New Zealand to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Iran330300
4New Zealand13012-6
9Iran330300
World Cup standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Iran Over 2.5
-New Zealand Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
New Zealand scored in all 6 matches and went over 2.5 goals in every one of them.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Iran v New Zealand prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Competition and hubs

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Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre