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Independiente crestIndependiente
v
San Lorenzo crestSan Lorenzo

Liga Profesional Argentina | Sun 13 Sep, 23:15

Independiente v San Lorenzo Stats

Data last updated: Sat 12 Sep 2026, 08:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Independiente face San Lorenzo in Liga Profesional Argentina on Sun 13 Sep, 23:15. Independiente come in with 7 recent points and 0.8 goals per match, while San Lorenzo have 7 points and 0.4 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

San Lorenzo to Win

  • At 4, San Lorenzo to Win implies roughly 25%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 40%.
  • San Lorenzo have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the San Lorenzo to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Independiente sit 8 in the table, while San Lorenzo sit 10, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 40% for San Lorenzo to Win sits against roughly 25% implied by the current price. San Lorenzo have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the San Lorenzo to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Model chance vs price40% model chance against roughly 25% implied
Strong positive
San Lorenzo have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Independiente sit 8 in the table, while San Lorenzo sit.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: San Lorenzo Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers San Lorenzo have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the San Lorenzo Win angle more than a raw possession edge. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

San Lorenzo to Win evidence

San Lorenzo have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the San Lorenzo Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Independiente sit 8 in the table, while San Lorenzo sit 10, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

San Lorenzo to Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Independiente0.8
    Avg goals scored
    San Lorenzo0.4
    Independiente1
    Avg goals conceded
    San Lorenzo0.6
    Independiente20%
    BTTS rate
    San Lorenzo0%
    Independiente40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    San Lorenzo0%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 64% · edge +4.3 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
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    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
    6
    Check odds @ 6
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.88
    Check odds @ 2.88
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 33%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    BTTS No is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: Independiente concede 1 on average and San Lorenzo score 0.4, so the clean-sheet route has a data base.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickSan Lorenzo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 40% vs implied 25% · edge +15 pts
    4
    Check odds @ 4
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    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 69%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    San Lorenzo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.88
    Check odds @ 2.88
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 33%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    San Lorenzo to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

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    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Independiente7
    Avg corners for
    San Lorenzo2.33
    Independiente13
    Avg total corners
    San Lorenzo7.67
    Independiente1.33
    Avg yellow cards
    San Lorenzo3
    Independiente12.33
    Avg shots
    San Lorenzo9
    Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 60% · edge +9.5 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 8.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Independiente

    WLDWL
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 1D 4L
    06 Sep 2026A Central Cordoba de Santiago1-0
    30 Aug 2026H Gimnasia M.0-3
    22 Aug 2026H Independ. Rivadavia0-0
    17 Aug 2026A Lanus3-1
    09 Aug 2026H Platense0-1

    San Lorenzo

    WLDWL
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 2D 5L
    05 Sep 2026H Talleres Cordoba1-0
    01 Sep 2026A Instituto Cordoba0-1
    22 Aug 2026A Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto0-0
    15 Aug 2026H Union Santa Fe1-0
    09 Aug 2026H Huracan0-2
    Market aligned with main pickSan Lorenzo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 40% vs implied 25% · edge +15 pts
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Load more odds for this section
    Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 70%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    San Lorenzo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    3Independiente wins
    6Draws
    1San Lorenzo wins
    02 May 2026San Lorenzo v Independiente1-2
    21 Sep 2025Independiente v San Lorenzo1-1
    08 Mar 2025San Lorenzo v Independiente1-2
    03 Aug 2024Independiente v San Lorenzo0-0
    01 Apr 2023San Lorenzo v Independiente0-0
    04 Jun 2022San Lorenzo v Independiente1-1
    Market aligned with main pickSan Lorenzo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 40% vs implied 25% · edge +15 pts
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.88
    Check odds @ 2.88
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 33%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    The head-to-head sample gives context for San Lorenzo to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Liga Profesional Argentina

    Independiente25
    Played
    San Lorenzo0
    Independiente1.3
    Avg goals for
    San Lorenzo-
    Independiente1.2
    Avg goals against
    San Lorenzo-
    Independiente8
    Clean sheets
    San Lorenzo-
    Market aligned with main pickSan Lorenzo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 40% vs implied 25% · edge +15 pts
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Load more odds for this section
    San Lorenzo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Season data supports San Lorenzo to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    5Independiente24166644
    7San Lorenzo22165740
    8Independiente1384131
    10San Lorenzo108314-2
    Independiente sit in position 8, while San Lorenzo sit in position 10, so table pressure belongs in the San Lorenzo to Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Independiente Over 2.5
    0%San Lorenzo Over 2.5
    1.6H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Independiente sit at 40% and San Lorenzo sit at 0% with the H2H average at 1.6 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Football predictions hub

    Find the latest football previews and betting angles from the main predictions hub.

    More stats pages

    Defensa Y Justicia v Gimnasia M.Liga Profesional Argentina · Fri 11 Sep 23:15Boca Juniors v Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional Argentina · Sat 12 Sep 01:30Estudiantes L.P. v PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina · Sat 12 Sep 18:45Independ. Rivadavia v AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina · Sat 12 Sep 18:45

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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