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Independiente Medellin crestIndependiente Medellin
v
Millonarios crestMillonarios

Primera A | Wed 12 Aug, 00:00

Independiente Medellin v Millonarios Stats

Data last updated: Mon 24 Aug 2026, 10:41 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Independiente Medellin face Millonarios in Primera A on Wed 12 Aug, 00:00. Independiente Medellin come in with 12 recent points and 1.8 goals per match, while Millonarios have 10 points and 1.4 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Independiente Medellin to Win

  • At 2.8, Independiente Medellin to Win implies roughly 36%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 51%.
  • Independiente Medellin have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 10 for Millonarios.
  • Millonarios have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Independiente Medellin to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Independiente Medellin sit 4 in the table, while Millonarios sit 8, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 51% for Independiente Medellin to Win sits against roughly 36% implied by the current price. Independiente Medellin have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 10 for Millonarios.

Model chance vs price51% model chance against roughly 36% implied
Strong positive
Independiente Medellin have the stronger recent points return, taking 12.Visible data support
Positive
Millonarios have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Independiente Medellin Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Independiente Medellin have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 10 for Millonarios. The fixture status adds uncertainty, so prices should be checked again once the match details settle.

Main risk

The fixture status adds uncertainty, so prices should be checked again once the match details settle.

Key Data Signals

Independiente Medellin to Win evidence

Independiente Medellin have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 10 for Millonarios.

Millonarios have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Independiente Medellin Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Independiente Medellin sit 4 in the table, while Millonarios sit 8, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Independiente Medellin to Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Independiente Medellin1.8
    Avg goals scored
    Millonarios1.4
    Independiente Medellin1.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Millonarios0.6
    Independiente Medellin60%
    BTTS rate
    Millonarios20%
    Independiente Medellin60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Millonarios20%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 55% · edge +5.4 pts
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 43%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 25%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 44%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 60% for Independiente Medellin and 20% for Millonarios, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickIndependiente Medellin to WinBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
    2.8
    Check odds @ 2.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Independiente Medellin Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 60%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 62%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 43%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Independiente Medellin to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Independiente Medellin4.75
    Avg corners for
    Millonarios7
    Independiente Medellin8.75
    Avg total corners
    Millonarios10
    Independiente Medellin3.25
    Avg yellow cards
    Millonarios3
    Independiente Medellin13.75
    Avg shots
    Millonarios14.67
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 56% vs implied 50% · edge +6.1 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 62%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Independiente Medellin

    WWWLW
    Last 54W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 107W 1D 2L
    05 Aug 2026A Deportes Tolima3-2
    02 Aug 2026H Deportivo Cali1-0
    25 Jul 2026H Deportivo Pasto3-2
    03 May 2026H Águilas Doradas1-2
    26 Apr 2026H Fortaleza FC1-0

    Millonarios

    WWLDW
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 3D 3L
    05 Aug 2026H Deportivo Pasto2-0
    02 Aug 2026A Junior1-0
    26 Jul 2026H Bucaramanga0-1
    03 May 2026A Alianza Valledupar2-2
    24 Apr 2026H Deportes Tolima2-0
    Market aligned with main pickIndependiente Medellin to WinBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
    2.8
    Check odds @ 2.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 79%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Independiente Medellin Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Independiente Medellin wins
    0Draws
    0Millonarios wins
    Market aligned with main pickIndependiente Medellin to WinBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
    2.8
    Check odds @ 2.8
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 60%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 43%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Independiente Medellin to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Primera A

    Independiente Medellin23
    Played
    Millonarios0
    Independiente Medellin1.4
    Avg goals for
    Millonarios-
    Independiente Medellin1.3
    Avg goals against
    Millonarios-
    Independiente Medellin6
    Clean sheets
    Millonarios-
    Market aligned with main pickIndependiente Medellin to WinBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
    2.8
    Check odds @ 2.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Independiente Medellin Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Season data supports Independiente Medellin to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    10Millonarios26197578
    11Independiente Medellin26197572
    4Independiente Medellin943012
    8Millonarios742112
    Independiente Medellin sit in position 4, while Millonarios sit in position 8, so table pressure belongs in the Independiente Medellin to Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Independiente Medellin Over 2.5
    20%Millonarios Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Independiente Medellin sit at 60% and Millonarios sit at 20%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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