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IFK Goteborg crestIFK Goteborg
v
Kalmar FF crestKalmar FF

Allsvenskan | Sun 09 Aug, 15:30

IFK Goteborg v Kalmar FF Stats

Data last updated: Sat 08 Aug 2026, 08:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Kalmar FF visits IFK Goteborg in an Allsvenskan clash where both teams seek to improve their mid-table positions. Kalmar FF arrives with slightly better recent form and defensive solidity, conceding fewer goals than Goteborg, who have struggled defensively despite creating more shots. Kalmar's tactical discipline and ability to capitalize on chances could be decisive in this contest, while Goteborg's attacking intent may leave gaps at the back. The match promises a tactical battle with Kalmar FF aiming to exploit defensive vulnerabilities and secure a valuable away win.

BT4Y best bet

Kalmar FF to Win

  • Kalmar FF has a of 57.5% to win, with offering positive value at 2.8.
  • Goteborg concedes 2.2 goals per game, significantly more than Kalmar's 1.2, indicating defensive weakness.
  • Goteborg averages 19.2 shots per game but only 5 shots on target, showing inefficiency in attack.
  • Kalmar FF maintains a solid defensive record with only 0.2 yellow cards per game, reflecting disciplined play.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Kalmar FF's defensive strength and recent form underpin a 57.5% to win, contrasting with IFK Goteborg's defensive frailties and lower points per game. Despite Goteborg's higher shot volume, their conversion and defensive lapses create an opportunity for Kalmar to capitalize. The at 2.8 provide positive value, reflecting a market underestimation of Kalmar's chances. This pick balances tactical discipline and statistical edge, though Goteborg's attacking pressure could still pose risks.

Model Win Probability57.5%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance35.7%
Strong positive
Defensive Concession ComparisonGoteborg concedes 2.2 vs Kalmar 1.2 goals per game
Strong positive
Shot Volume vs EfficiencyGoteborg high shots but lower efficiency
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Kalmar FF's disciplined defense and efficient attack make them the tactical favorite to secure victory against a defensively vulnerable IFK Goteborg. The statistical edge in goals conceded and recent form supports backing Kalmar to win in this closely contested Allsvenskan fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Kalmar FF tactical and statistical advantage

“Kalmar FF's ability to maintain defensive composure while exploiting Goteborg's defensive lapses creates a compelling case for their victory. Their balanced approach and recent momentum make them a strong contender in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Kalmar FF to Win evidence

Kalmar FF has a of 57.5% to win, with offering positive value at 2.8.

Goteborg concedes 2.2 goals per game, significantly more than Kalmar's 1.2, indicating defensive weakness.

Goteborg averages 19.2 shots per game but only 5 shots on target, showing inefficiency in attack.

Kalmar FF maintains a solid defensive record with only 0.2 yellow cards per game, reflecting disciplined play.

What To Watch In The Data

Kalmar FF to Win notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 1.8, indicating relatively low-scoring matches.
  • However, Goteborg's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) this season suggests potential for more open play, though Kalmar's defensive discipline may temper this trend.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

IFK Goteborg7.2
Avg corners for
Kalmar FF3.2
IFK Goteborg13.2
Avg total corners
Kalmar FF7.4
IFK Goteborg1.8
Avg yellow cards
Kalmar FF0.2
IFK Goteborg19.2
Avg shots
Kalmar FF10.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Goteborg averages 7.2 corners and 19.2 shots per game, indicating attacking pressure, but Kalmar's discipline is reflected in their low yellow card average (0.2), suggesting controlled defensive play that could limit Goteborg's set-piece threats.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

IFK Goteborg1.2
Avg goals scored
Kalmar FF1.6
IFK Goteborg2.2
Avg goals conceded
Kalmar FF1.2
IFK Goteborg60%
BTTS rate
Kalmar FF60%
IFK Goteborg80%
Over 2.5 goals
Kalmar FF60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 64% · edge +9.6 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 77%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Both teams have moderate BTTS rates at 60%, but Goteborg's high goals conceded (2.2 per game) and Kalmar's solid defense (1.2 conceded) suggest a contest where Kalmar may limit goals against while capitalizing on chances, potentially resulting in a moderate scoring game.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickKalmar FF to WinBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
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Kalmar FF Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
The of 2.8 for Kalmar FF to win offer clear positive value compared to the model's 57.5% win probability. This suggests the market underestimates Kalmar's chances, making this a price-sensitive opportunity worth considering with standard stakes.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

IFK Goteborg

WLWLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
02 Aug 2026H Degerfors IF2-0
26 Jul 2026A Sirius1-4
17 Jul 2026H IF Brommapojkarna2-1
12 Jul 2026A Malmo FF0-4
05 Jul 2026H AIK Stockholm1-2

Kalmar FF

DWDLW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
01 Aug 2026A BK Hacken1-1
25 Jul 2026H Mjallby AIF2-1
20 Jul 2026H Malmo FF2-2
12 Jul 2026A Hammarby FF0-2
05 Jul 2026H Orgryte IS3-0
Market aligned with main pickKalmar FF to WinBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 80%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Kalmar FF Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Kalmar FF's recent form shows 8 points gained with a stronger defensive record, contrasting with Goteborg's 6 points and higher goals conceded. This form differential supports Kalmar's chances to secure a win in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2IFK Goteborg wins
3Draws
5Kalmar FF wins
23 Apr 2026Kalmar FF v IFK Goteborg1-1
02 Nov 2024IFK Goteborg v Kalmar FF1-1
14 Apr 2024Kalmar FF v IFK Goteborg0-1
30 Jul 2023IFK Goteborg v Kalmar FF2-0
09 Apr 2023Kalmar FF v IFK Goteborg2-0
22 Aug 2022Kalmar FF v IFK Goteborg1-0
Market aligned with main pickKalmar FF to WinBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
The head-to-head sample of 10 matches shows moderate goal averages and balanced outcomes, providing limited direct support for Kalmar's win but highlighting a competitive fixture where current form and defensive strength are more decisive.
Season team stats

Allsvenskan

IFK Goteborg16
Played
Kalmar FF16
IFK Goteborg1.4
Avg goals for
Kalmar FF1.3
IFK Goteborg2.2
Avg goals against
Kalmar FF1.5
IFK Goteborg1
Clean sheets
Kalmar FF2
Market aligned with main pickKalmar FF to WinBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
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Kalmar FF Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Kalmar FF's season-long defensive solidity and efficient attack underpin their winning chances, while Goteborg's higher goals conceded and reliance on volume shooting highlight vulnerabilities that Kalmar can exploit.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
10IFK Goteborg1916547-13
11Kalmar FF1816538-3
Kalmar FF sits 10th with 18 points, slightly ahead of Goteborg's 13th place and 16 points. This mid-table proximity adds competitive stakes, with Kalmar seeking to consolidate position by exploiting Goteborg's defensive weaknesses.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%IFK Goteborg Over 2.5
60%Kalmar FF Over 2.5
1.8H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 1.8, indicating relatively low-scoring matches. However, Goteborg's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) this season suggests potential for more open play, though Kalmar's defensive discipline may temper this trend.

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