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Hibernian crestHibernian
v
Motherwell crestMotherwell

Premiership | Sat 16 May, 12:30

Hibernian v Motherwell Stats

Data last updated: Wed 24 Jun 2026, 22:43 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Hibernian face Motherwell in Premiership on Sat 16 May, 12:30. Hibs’ last four league games have all produced over 2.5 goals, suggesting a high-event finale is expected here. Hibernian enter the final day with significant momentum following back-to-back victories over Falkirk and Rangers.

BT4Y best bet

Victories over Falkirk and Rangers

  • At 13/8, Hibernian Win implies roughly 38%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 53%.
  • Hibernian have scored in each of their last eight home Premiership meetings with Motherwell.
  • Hibernian have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Motherwell.
  • Hibernian have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.6 conceded per match, which helps the Hibernian Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Hibernian sit 5 in the table, while Motherwell sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 53% for Hibernian Win sits against roughly 38% implied by the current price. Hibernian have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Motherwell. Hibernian have scored in each of their last eight home Premiership meetings with Motherwell.

Model chance vs price53% model chance against roughly 38% implied
Strong positive
Hibernian have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points.Visible data support
Positive
Hibernian have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.6 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Hibernian have scored in each of their last eight.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Hibernian Win is the preferred angle because hibernian have scored in each of their last eight home Premiership meetings with Motherwell. Hibernian have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Motherwell. Hibernian have sometimes lacked ruthlessness in decisive moments this season, but Scarlett delivered exactly that at Ibrox.

Main risk

Hibernian have sometimes lacked ruthlessness in decisive moments this season, but Scarlett delivered exactly that at Ibrox.

Key Data Signals

Hibernian Win evidence

Hibernian have scored in each of their last eight home Premiership meetings with Motherwell.

Hibernian have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Motherwell.

Hibernian have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.6 conceded per match, which helps the Hibernian Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Hibernian sit 5 in the table, while Motherwell sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Hibernian Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Hibernian2.2
    Avg corners for
    Motherwell4
    Hibernian10.6
    Avg total corners
    Motherwell8.8
    Hibernian2.6
    Avg yellow cards
    Motherwell2.4
    Hibernian6
    Avg shots
    Motherwell11.6
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 56% · edge +7.9 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 58%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Hibernian1.4
    Avg goals scored
    Motherwell1.4
    Hibernian1.6
    Avg goals conceded
    Motherwell2
    Hibernian80%
    BTTS rate
    Motherwell80%
    Hibernian80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Motherwell60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 60% · edge +16.1 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 64%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 82%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
    3.2
    Check odds @ 3.2
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickHibernian to WinBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 39% · edge +14.2 pts
    2.55
    Check odds @ 2.55
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 64%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Hibernian Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Hibernian to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Hibernian

    WWLLL
    Last 52W 0D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 3D 3L
    13 May 2026A Rangers2-1
    09 May 2026A Falkirk3-1
    03 May 2026H Celtic1-2
    26 Apr 2026H Heart Of Midlothian1-2
    11 Apr 2026A Aberdeen0-2

    Motherwell

    LDLWL
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 2D 6L
    13 May 2026H Celtic2-3
    09 May 2026H Heart Of Midlothian1-1
    02 May 2026A Falkirk0-1
    26 Apr 2026A Rangers3-2
    11 Apr 2026A Heart Of Midlothian1-3
    Market aligned with main pickHibernian to WinBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 39% · edge +14.2 pts
    2.55
    Check odds @ 2.55
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 80%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Hibernian Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    3Hibernian wins
    4Draws
    3Motherwell wins
    21 Mar 2026Motherwell v Hibernian0-0
    10 Jan 2026Hibernian v Motherwell1-1
    25 Nov 2025Motherwell v Hibernian2-0
    11 Jan 2025Hibernian v Motherwell3-1
    30 Nov 2024Motherwell v Hibernian0-3
    05 Oct 2024Hibernian v Motherwell1-2
    Market aligned with main pickHibernian to WinBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 39% · edge +14.2 pts
    2.55
    Check odds @ 2.55
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 64%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Hibernian to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Premiership

    Hibernian38
    Played
    Motherwell38
    Hibernian1.5
    Avg goals for
    Motherwell1.6
    Hibernian1.2
    Avg goals against
    Motherwell0.9
    Hibernian11
    Clean sheets
    Motherwell18
    Market aligned with main pickHibernian to WinBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 39% · edge +14.2 pts
    2.55
    Check odds @ 2.55
    Load more odds for this section
    Hibernian Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Season data supports Hibernian to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    4Motherwell54331412723
    5Hibernian51331312814
    4Motherwell61381613923
    5Hibernian573815121114
    Hibernian sit in position 5, while Motherwell sit in position 4, so table pressure belongs in the Hibernian Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    80%Hibernian Over 2.5
    60%Motherwell Over 2.5
    2.6H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Hibernian sit at 80% and Motherwell sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.6 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Hibernian v Motherwell prediction

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    Betting context

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