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Heerenveen crestHeerenveen
v
AZ Alkmaar crestAZ Alkmaar

Eredivisie | Sun 06 Sep, 13:30

Heerenveen v AZ Alkmaar Stats

Data last updated: Sun 06 Sep 2026, 20:37 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Heerenveen host AZ Alkmaar at the Abe Lenstra Stadion in a fixture that pits home resilience against the league leaders' attacking momentum. AZ Alkmaar arrive unbeaten with four straight wins, boasting 13 goals scored and a strong defensive record. Heerenveen, positioned 11th, have shown scoring ability but remain vulnerable defensively, conceding high shot volumes. Despite Heerenveen's recent 3-1 home wins over AZ, the visitors' consistent pressure and goal threat suggest an away victory with both teams finding the net. Key absences on both sides add uncertainty but also increase the likelihood of goals at both ends.

BT4Y best bet

AZ Alkmaar to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • AZ Alkmaar have won all four Eredivisie matches this season, scoring 13 goals and conceding 3.
  • Heerenveen concede an average of 19 attempts and 5.8 shots on target per game, highlighting defensive vulnerability.
  • Jacob Trenskow has two goals and one assist this season, underpinning Heerenveen's scoring potential.
  • AZ Alkmaar average 18.2 attempts and 7 shots on target per match, indicating sustained attacking pressure.
  • Recent home meetings saw Heerenveen win 3-1 twice, but current form favors AZ Alkmaar's attacking control.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates AZ Alkmaar to win with both teams scoring at 44.4% chance, above the market's 35.7% implied probability, reflecting strong value. AZ's high shot volume and goal output contrast with Heerenveen's defensive frailties, while Heerenveen's own scoring ability, led by Jacob Trenskow, supports the BTTS angle. The combination of AZ's attacking efficiency and Heerenveen's defensive concessions creates a compelling case for an away win with goals at both ends. No data limitations affect , and the price offers a standard stake opportunity.

Model Chance44.4%
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance35.7%
Positive
AZ Alkmaar Attack18.2 attempts, 7 shots on target per game
Strong positive
Heerenveen DefenseConcedes 19 attempts, 5.8 shots on target per game
Strong positive
Heerenveen ScoringJacob Trenskow with 2 goals, 1 assist
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

AZ Alkmaar's unbeaten start and high attacking output make them favorites to win, while Heerenveen's defensive weaknesses and home scoring record suggest both teams will find the net. The tactical contrast between AZ's sustained pressure and Heerenveen's vulnerability underpins the selection for an away win with goals at both ends.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and goal-scoring potential

“AZ Alkmaar's blend of attacking variety and clinical finishing against a defensively porous Heerenveen side sets the stage for a high-scoring away victory with both teams on the scoresheet.”

Key Data Signals

AZ Alkmaar to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

AZ Alkmaar have won all four Eredivisie matches this season, scoring 13 goals and conceding 3.

Heerenveen concede an average of 19 attempts and 5.8 shots on target per game, highlighting defensive vulnerability.

Jacob Trenskow has two goals and one assist this season, underpinning Heerenveen's scoring potential.

AZ Alkmaar average 18.2 attempts and 7 shots on target per match, indicating sustained attacking pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

AZ Alkmaar to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • The last ten meetings average 3.9 goals per game, with recent home fixtures seeing Heerenveen win 3-1 twice.
  • This high-scoring trend aligns with the Over 2.5 Goals market and supports expectations of an open game with multiple goals, driven by attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Heerenveen4.33
Avg corners for
AZ Alkmaar10.25
Heerenveen12.33
Avg total corners
AZ Alkmaar14
Heerenveen1
Avg yellow cards
AZ Alkmaar0.75
Heerenveen11.33
Avg shots
AZ Alkmaar20.75
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 69% vs implied 65% · edge +3.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
AZ Alkmaar's attacking control is evident in their 16.5 average shots and 8.5 corners per game, while Heerenveen generate fewer shots (13) and corners (4.5). Discipline is low with Heerenveen averaging 1 yellow card and AZ under 1, suggesting a game focused more on attacking play and sustained pressure than fouling or interruptions.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Heerenveen1.25
Avg goals scored
AZ Alkmaar3.25
Heerenveen1.5
Avg goals conceded
AZ Alkmaar0.75
Heerenveen50%
BTTS rate
AZ Alkmaar50%
Heerenveen50%
Over 2.5 goals
AZ Alkmaar50%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 35% · edge +10.9 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Both teams have scored in 50% of their recent matches, supported by AZ's average of 2.4 goals per game and Heerenveen's ability to score despite defensive lapses. The match-up features contrasting defensive records, with AZ conceding less but Heerenveen allowing high shot volumes, indicating a likely open game with goals at both ends.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAZ Alkmaar to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 56% · edge +14.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
AZ Alkmaar Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
The of 2.8 for AZ Alkmaar to win and both teams to score reflect a positive value opportunity, with the model assigning a 44.4% chance versus the market's 35.7%. This suggests the market underestimates AZ's attacking consistency and Heerenveen's defensive vulnerabilities, making the selection price-sensitive but justified.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Heerenveen

DLDW
Last 51W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 1L
30 Aug 2026A Willem II2-2
22 Aug 2026H PEC Zwolle0-2
16 Aug 2026A Ajax2-2
09 Aug 2026H Twente1-0

AZ Alkmaar

WWWW
Last 54W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 0D 0L
29 Aug 2026H GO Ahead Eagles5-2
22 Aug 2026A Fortuna Sittard2-0
15 Aug 2026A Utrecht4-1
08 Aug 2026H ADO Den Haag2-0
Market aligned with main pickAZ Alkmaar to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 56% · edge +14.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
AZ Alkmaar Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
AZ Alkmaar's perfect start with four wins and 13 goals scored contrasts with Heerenveen's mixed form, having earned 5 points from four games and scoring fewer goals. AZ's momentum and efficiency in front of goal underpin in their ability to secure victory, while Heerenveen's recent defensive concessions suggest they will likely concede again, supporting the BTTS element.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Heerenveen wins
2Draws
6AZ Alkmaar wins
12 Apr 2026AZ Alkmaar v Heerenveen3-0
23 Nov 2025Heerenveen v AZ Alkmaar3-1
22 May 2025AZ Alkmaar v Heerenveen4-1
02 Mar 2025Heerenveen v AZ Alkmaar3-1
14 Sep 2024AZ Alkmaar v Heerenveen9-1
28 Jan 2024Heerenveen v AZ Alkmaar2-2
Market aligned with main pickAZ Alkmaar to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 56% · edge +14.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
The head-to-head record shows a high-scoring pattern with an average of 3.9 goals per match over the last ten meetings. Heerenveen's recent 3-1 home wins provide context for their scoring ability at this venue, but AZ Alkmaar's current form and attacking strength suggest they can reverse this trend, making the H2H a background factor rather than a decisive guide.
Season team stats

Eredivisie

Heerenveen4
Played
AZ Alkmaar4
Heerenveen1.3
Avg goals for
AZ Alkmaar3.3
Heerenveen1.5
Avg goals against
AZ Alkmaar0.8
Heerenveen1
Clean sheets
AZ Alkmaar2
Market aligned with main pickAZ Alkmaar to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 56% · edge +14.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
AZ Alkmaar Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Over the season, AZ Alkmaar average 2.4 goals per game with a strong defensive record conceding 0.75 goals, reflecting balance and attacking potency. Heerenveen's season stats show a lower scoring rate of 1.25 goals and a higher concession rate of 1.5 goals per game, highlighting defensive weaknesses that AZ can exploit while Heerenveen maintain some scoring threat.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1AZ Alkmaar15550011
12Heerenveen55122-2
AZ Alkmaar sit 2nd in the Eredivisie with 12 points from four matches, demonstrating early-season control. Heerenveen are 11th with 5 points, reflecting inconsistency. The standings underscore AZ's status as favorites and the pressure on Heerenveen to perform at home, adding tactical urgency to the fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Heerenveen Over 2.5
50%AZ Alkmaar Over 2.5
3.9H2H avg goals
The last ten meetings average 3.9 goals per game, with recent home fixtures seeing Heerenveen win 3-1 twice. This high-scoring trend aligns with the Over 2.5 Goals market and supports expectations of an open game with multiple goals, driven by attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Heerenveen v AZ Alkmaar prediction

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Betting context

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