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Heart Of Midlothian crestHeart Of Midlothian
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Sturm Graz crestSturm Graz

UEFA Champions League | Tue 28 Jul, 19:45

Heart Of Midlothian v Sturm Graz Stats

Data last updated: Mon 27 Jul 2026, 05:29 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sturm Graz host Heart Of Midlothian in the first leg of their UEFA Champions League second qualifying round tie, bringing strong momentum and tactical discipline into this contest. Sturm Graz have lost only once in their last 20 matches and boast a solid home record, while Heart Of Midlothian arrive after consecutive pre-season wins under new manager Wouter Vrancken. The Austrian side's European experience and structured wing-back system contrast with Heart Of Midlothian's attacking ambition and transition threat, setting up a tactical battle where control, composure, and efficient attacking transitions will be decisive.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Sturm Graz to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Sturm Graz have lost just one of their last 20 matches, showing strong consistency.
  • Heart Of Midlothian have scored regularly but show defensive vulnerabilities away from home.
  • Both teams have attacking players capable of scoring, supporting a BTTS scenario.
  • Sturm Graz's home form and European experience give them an edge for a narrow win.
Price warning

Sturm Graz to Win & Both Teams to Score is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 30% while the model sits nearer 24% (-6.1 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Over 2.5 Goals shows a +14.3 pts edge at 1.57.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model recognizes Sturm Graz's strong home form and unbeaten run as a solid foundation for a win, combined with Heart Of Midlothian's ability to score away, making both teams to score plausible. However, the current are shorter than the model's estimated chance, indicating a price-sensitive selection rather than clear value. Reduced staking or waiting for improvement is advised. the football read remains compelling due to Sturm Graz's tactical control and Heart Of Midlothian's attacking threat in transition.

Sturm Graz home formLost 1 in 20 matches
Strong positive
Heart Of Midlothian away scoringRegular goals but defensive issues
Positive
Model chance vs market oddsModel 22.1% vs implied 30.3%
Negative
European experienceSturm Graz recent continental campaigns
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Sturm Graz's blend of home consistency and European experience positions them well to secure a narrow victory, while Heart Of Midlothian's attacking quality ensures goals for both sides. This match will hinge on Sturm's ability to control possession and Heart Of Midlothian's effectiveness in quick transitions, making the combined bet a tactically sound choice.

Main risk

Sturm Graz and Hearts both show solid scoring potential but differ in consistency.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match tactical and form analysis

“Sturm Graz's tactical discipline and home momentum, combined with Heart Of Midlothian's attacking threat, create a compelling scenario for a competitive match with goals at both ends.”

Key Data Signals

Sturm Graz to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Sturm Graz have lost just one of their last 20 matches, showing strong consistency.

Heart Of Midlothian have scored regularly but show defensive vulnerabilities away from home.

Both teams have attacking players capable of scoring, supporting a BTTS scenario.

Sturm Graz's home form and European experience give them an edge for a narrow win.

What To Watch In The Data

Sturm Graz to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last ten matches, both teams have consistently produced games with over 2.5 goals, reflecting open play and attacking intent.
  • Their head-to-head average of 4 goals in a single previous meeting further supports the likelihood of a high-tempo, goal-rich encounter in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Heart Of Midlothian0
Avg goals scored
Sturm Graz4
Heart Of Midlothian4
Avg goals conceded
Sturm Graz0
Heart Of Midlothian0%
BTTS rate
Sturm Graz0%
Heart Of Midlothian100%
Over 2.5 goals
Sturm Graz100%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 64% · edge +14.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 33%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Both teams have shown consistent scoring ability recently, with Sturm Graz averaging 1.8 goals and Heart Of Midlothian 1.6 goals per game. Defensive vulnerabilities on both sides support the likelihood of goals for each team, aligning well with the BTTS selection.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSturm Graz Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Sturm Graz to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 33%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The current for Sturm Graz to Win & Both Teams to Score are shorter than the model's estimated probability, indicating a price-sensitive market. While the football read is strong due to Sturm Graz's home form and Heart Of Midlothian's scoring ability, the lack of value suggests cautious staking or waiting for better is prudent.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Heart Of Midlothian

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
21 Jul 2026A Sturm Graz0-4

Sturm Graz

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
21 Jul 2026H Heart Of Midlothian4-0
Market aligned with main pickAway / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Sturm Graz Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Sturm Graz to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Sturm Graz's recent form is impressive, with only one loss in 20 matches and a strong home record including five wins in their last seven home games. Heart Of Midlothian have shown attacking promise with consecutive pre-season wins but have struggled defensively away, suggesting a competitive but challenging fixture for the visitors.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Heart Of Midlothian wins
0Draws
1Sturm Graz wins
21 Jul 2026Sturm Graz v Heart Of Midlothian4-0
Market aligned with main pickSturm Graz to WinBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 33%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The limited head-to-head sample of one match shows a high-scoring game with an average of 4 goals, indicating that previous meetings have been open and competitive. While the sample is small, it suggests that both teams are capable of scoring, aligning with the BTTS selection.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

UEFA Champions League

Heart Of Midlothian1
Played
Sturm Graz1
Heart Of Midlothian0
Avg goals for
Sturm Graz4
Heart Of Midlothian4
Avg goals against
Sturm Graz0
Heart Of Midlothian0
Clean sheets
Sturm Graz1
Market aligned with main pickSturm Graz Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Load more odds for this section
Sturm Graz to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Sturm Graz's season stats reveal a balanced attack averaging 1.8 goals per game and a solid defense conceding 0.9 goals, supporting their ability to control matches at home. Heart Of Midlothian's stats show good attacking numbers but defensive fragility on the road, reinforcing the expectation of goals at both ends and a narrow home win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Heart Of Midlothian Over 2.5
100%Sturm Graz Over 2.5
4H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, both teams have consistently produced games with over 2.5 goals, reflecting open play and attacking intent. Their head-to-head average of 4 goals in a single previous meeting further supports the likelihood of a high-tempo, goal-rich encounter in this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Heart Of Midlothian v Sturm Graz prediction

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