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Celje crestCelje
v
Egnatia Rrogozhinë crestEgnatia Rrogozhinë

UEFA Champions League | Tue 28 Jul, 19:15

Celje v Egnatia Rrogozhinë Stats

Data last updated: Mon 27 Jul 2026, 05:29 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Celje host Egnatia Rrogozhinë at Stadion Z’dežele in the UEFA Champions League second qualifying round second leg, following a thrilling 3-3 draw in Albania. Both teams have shown potent attacking ability but defensive vulnerabilities, with Celje unbeaten in four matches yet conceding in each. Egnatia arrive unbeaten as well, having scored ten goals in three qualifiers but also conceding regularly. The tie is finely balanced, with home advantage giving Celje a slight edge, but both sides must balance attacking ambition with defensive discipline in a match likely to be open and high-scoring.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Celje to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Celje unbeaten in four matches but have conceded in every game.
  • Egnatia scored 10 goals in three Champions League qualifiers but conceded in all.
  • Both teams have found the net in all recent European matches, supporting BTTS.
  • Celje’s home advantage and attacking depth give them an edge to win.
  • Recent matches involving Celje have consistently featured at least three goals.
Price warning

Celje to Win & Both Teams to Score is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 31% while the model sits nearer 21% (-10.4 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Over 2.5 Goals shows a +15 pts edge at 1.65.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The selection reflects Celje’s strong home form and attacking firepower combined with Egnatia’s consistent scoring threat, making both teams likely to score. Despite the being below the market implied probability, the football context supports this pick due to Celje’s unbeaten run and Egnatia’s offensive output. However, the current price is short, so a reduced stake or waiting for improvement is advised. Defensive vulnerabilities on both sides increase the likelihood of goals from both teams, aligning with the combined bet.

Celje’s unbeaten run with goals scored in every matchPositive attacking and resilience
Positive
Egnatia’s strong scoring record but defensive lapsesSupports BTTS
Positive
Model chance (19.5%) below market implied chance (31.3%)Price-sensitive
Negative
Both teams’ recent matches consistently feature multiple goalsIncreases likelihood of BTTS
Positive
Main risk

Egnatia Rrogozhine carry the stronger scoring threat, but Celje must contribute for BTTS to land.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and scoring dynamics

“Celje’s resilience and home support give them the edge, but Egnatia’s attacking threat ensures this will be an open contest with goals at both ends.”

Key Data Signals

Celje to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Celje unbeaten in four matches but have conceded in every game.

Egnatia scored 10 goals in three Champions League qualifiers but conceded in all.

Both teams have found the net in all recent European matches, supporting BTTS.

Celje’s home advantage and attacking depth give them an edge to win.

What To Watch In The Data

Celje to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • In the last six competitive matches involving Celje, all have featured over 2.5 goals, highlighting a trend of high-scoring games.
  • Egnatia’s qualifiers also show a 67% rate of over 2.5 goals.
  • The first leg’s six-goal thriller reinforces the likelihood of a fast tempo and open play, suggesting that Over 2.5 Goals remains a strong trend for this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Celje3
Avg goals scored
Egnatia Rrogozhinë3.33
Celje3
Avg goals conceded
Egnatia Rrogozhinë1.67
Celje100%
BTTS rate
Egnatia Rrogozhinë100%
Celje100%
Over 2.5 goals
Egnatia Rrogozhinë67%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 61% · edge +15 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both teams have demonstrated strong attacking output in recent matches, with Celje scoring 14 goals in their last six games and Egnatia netting 10 in three qualifiers. Both sides have conceded in every competitive match this season, making goals likely at both ends. The first leg’s 3-3 scoreline further underscores the attacking openness and defensive vulnerabilities, supporting the BTTS route in this fixture.

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Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCelje Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 82% · edge -37 pts
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Celje to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
The current of 3.2 for Celje to Win & Both Teams to Score imply a 31.3% chance, which is notably higher than the model’s 19.5% probability. This indicates the market price is short and price-sensitive. While the football read is strong given both teams’ scoring records and defensive frailties, the value is limited at this price. drift or improved team news would enhance the value proposition for this selection.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Celje

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
22 Jul 2026A Egnatia Rrogozhinë3-3

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

DWD
Last 51W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 0L
22 Jul 2026H Celje3-3
15 Jul 2026H Petrocub6-1
08 Jul 2026A Petrocub1-1
Market aligned with main pickCelje Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 82% · edge -37 pts
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.08
Check odds @ 1.08
Celje to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Celje enter this match unbeaten in four, scoring consistently but conceding in every game, reflecting an attacking mindset paired with defensive vulnerability. Egnatia’s recent form shows prolific scoring with 10 goals in three qualifiers but also defensive lapses. Both teams’ recent matches have featured multiple goals and BTTS outcomes, reinforcing the expectation of an open, high-scoring encounter.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Celje wins
1Draws
0Egnatia Rrogozhinë wins
22 Jul 2026Egnatia Rrogozhinë v Celje3-3
Market aligned with main pickCelje to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 71% · edge -44.4 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
The single head-to-head match between these teams ended in a 3-3 draw, reflecting an open and high-scoring encounter with defensive vulnerabilities on both sides. This limited sample supports the expectation of goals from both teams and an attacking contest, though tactical adjustments in the second leg may influence the dynamics.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

UEFA Champions League

Celje1
Played
Egnatia Rrogozhinë3
Celje3
Avg goals for
Egnatia Rrogozhinë3.3
Celje3
Avg goals against
Egnatia Rrogozhinë1.7
Celje0
Clean sheets
Egnatia Rrogozhinë0
Market aligned with main pickCelje Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 82% · edge -37 pts
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Load more odds for this section
Celje to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Celje’s season stats reveal a potent attack with 14 goals in six matches but a leaky defense conceding in all games. Egnatia’s Champions League qualifiers show a similar pattern with strong scoring but defensive frailties. These season-long trends align with the combined bet, as both teams consistently contribute goals while struggling to keep clean sheets.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Celje Over 2.5
67%Egnatia Rrogozhinë Over 2.5
6H2H avg goals
In the last six competitive matches involving Celje, all have featured over 2.5 goals, highlighting a trend of high-scoring games. Egnatia’s qualifiers also show a 67% rate of over 2.5 goals. The first leg’s six-goal thriller reinforces the likelihood of a fast tempo and open play, suggesting that Over 2.5 Goals remains a strong trend for this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Celje v Egnatia Rrogozhinë prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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