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Hammarby FF crestHammarby FF
v
Djurgardens IF crestDjurgardens IF

Allsvenskan | Sun 11 Oct, 13:00

Hammarby FF v Djurgardens IF Stats

Data last updated: Sat 10 Oct 2026, 08:59 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Allsvenskan clash features Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF, two top-three teams separated by just two points. Both sides have shown solid defensive organization recently, with Djurgardens conceding only 0.4 goals per game and Hammarby allowing 1.0. Their tactical setups emphasize control and measured attacking, which often results in fewer high-scoring matches. The stakes are high as both teams aim to consolidate their positions near the summit, suggesting a cautious approach that could limit goal-scoring opportunities in this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Hammarby FF concedes just 1.0 goals per game, Djurgardens IF only 0.4
  • Both teams have a 40% rate of matches over 2.5 goals, indicating moderate scoring frequency
  • Hammarby FF averages 23.8 shots per game but with a modest conversion rate
  • Djurgardens IF’s defensive solidity is reflected in their low goals against and shot allowance
  • Recent form shows both teams capable of tight matches with limited goal tallies

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The Under 2.5 Goals pick is supported by both teams' defensive strengths and moderate attacking output. Djurgardens IF’s exceptional defensive record (0.4 goals conceded per game) and Hammarby FF’s disciplined backline suggest limited scoring. Although Hammarby generates more shots, their conversion is not high enough to offset Djurgardens’ defense. The model’s 56.7% chance for Under 2.5 Goals aligns with the tactical context of a cautious, high-stakes match where both sides prioritize defensive solidity. No price warning is needed as the offer positive value.

Defensive solidityDjurgardens IF concedes 0.4 goals per game
Strong positive
Moderate scoring frequencyBoth teams have 40% Over 2.5 rate
Positive
Shot volume vs conversionHammarby FF averages 23.8 shots but moderate goals
Neutral
Match stakes and tacticsTop-table clash likely to be cautious
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sensible selection given the defensive discipline of both teams and the tactical caution expected in this high-stakes Allsvenskan fixture. Djurgardens IF’s stingy defense and Hammarby FF’s controlled attacking style suggest a match where goals will be at a premium. The data supports a low-scoring game, making this pick a solid choice for bettors.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive and tactical analysis

“This fixture’s defensive profiles and tactical caution strongly indicate a low-scoring game, with both sides likely to prioritize structure over open attacking play.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Hammarby FF concedes just 1.0 goals per game, Djurgardens IF only 0.4

Hammarby FF averages 23.8 shots per game but with a modest conversion rate

Djurgardens IF’s defensive solidity is reflected in their low goals against and shot allowance

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last 10 head-to-head matches average 2.4 goals per game, close to the Under 2.5 threshold.
  • This trend, combined with the teams’ recent defensive form, suggests a match with controlled tempo and limited goal-scoring opportunities, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals angle.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Hammarby FF1.8
Avg goals scored
Djurgardens IF2
Hammarby FF1
Avg goals conceded
Djurgardens IF0.4
Hammarby FF60%
BTTS rate
Djurgardens IF20%
Hammarby FF40%
Over 2.5 goals
Djurgardens IF40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 44%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 29%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Goal trends show both teams have a 40% Over 2.5 rate, suggesting moderate scoring frequency. Hammarby FF’s 60% BTTS rate contrasts with Djurgardens IF’s 20%, indicating that while Hammarby often concedes or scores, Djurgardens tends to keep clean sheets. This asymmetry supports a cautious goal expectation overall.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionDjurgardens IF Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Load more odds for this section
Djurgardens IF to WinBetfred guide price · model 41%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
DrawBetUK guide price · model 26%
4
Check odds @ 4
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Hammarby FF Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
The 56.7% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 41.7% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Hammarby FF and 40% for Djurgardens IF, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Hammarby FF

WWDLW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 2D 1L
20 Sep 2026A Degerfors IF1-0
13 Sep 2026H IF Brommapojkarna3-1
06 Sep 2026A Orgryte IS1-1
30 Aug 2026A AIK Stockholm2-3
23 Aug 2026H Gais2-0

Djurgardens IF

LWWWW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 0D 3L
20 Sep 2026H IF Elfsborg1-2
14 Sep 2026H Gais2-0
07 Sep 2026A Kalmar FF1-0
03 Sep 2026A Mjallby AIF2-0
31 Aug 2026H Mjallby AIF4-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Djurgardens IF Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Djurgardens IF to WinBetfred guide price · model 41%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
DrawBetUK guide price · model 26%
4
Check odds @ 4
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Hammarby FF Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Hammarby FF to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Recent form data shows Hammarby FF scoring 1.8 goals and conceding 1.0 per game, while Djurgardens IF scores 2.0 but concedes only 0.4. Both teams have a 40% Over 2.5 rate, indicating that low-scoring matches are common. This form supports the Under 2.5 Goals pick as both sides have shown defensive resilience.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Hammarby FF Over 2.5
40%Djurgardens IF Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
The last 10 head-to-head matches average 2.4 goals per game, close to the Under 2.5 threshold. This trend, combined with the teams’ recent defensive form, suggests a match with controlled tempo and limited goal-scoring opportunities, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals angle.

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