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Hammarby FF crestHammarby FF
v
Anderlecht crestAnderlecht

UEFA Europa League | Thu 23 Jul, 18:00

Hammarby FF v Anderlecht Stats

Data last updated: Fri 24 Jul 2026, 03:38 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Hammarby FF host Anderlecht in the first leg of their UEFA Europa League second qualifying round tie, bringing strong domestic momentum and home form into the fixture. Hammarby have won six of eight home league matches this season, scoring freely and conceding sparingly, while Anderlecht enter a transitional phase under new manager Vitor Bruno, integrating new players and lacking recent competitive action. The Swedish side's attacking trio of Paulos Abraham, Montader Madjed, and Nahir Besara pose a significant threat against Anderlecht's new defensive partnerships. This match pits Hammarby's rhythm and home control against Anderlecht's pedigree and rebuilding challenge, setting up a tactical and emotional battle in Stockholm.

BT4Y match pick

Hammarby FF to Win

  • Hammarby have the strongest home record in the Allsvenskan with 19 points from 8 matches.
  • Recent form favors Hammarby with three consecutive wins scoring 8 goals and conceding only 1.
  • Anderlecht are in transition with a new manager and new defensive players, lacking recent competitive matches.
  • Paulos Abraham leads Hammarby's attack with 8 goals in 14 league appearances, supported by Madjed and Besara.
  • Anderlecht must quickly find cohesion to counter Hammarby's high tempo and home advantage.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model acknowledges Hammarby's strong home form and recent winning streak, which underpin a 43% chance to win, though this is below the market's 50% implied chance, making the current price-sensitive. The football context supports Hammarby's rhythm and attacking potency against Anderlecht's transitional phase and defensive uncertainties. Limited data on Anderlecht and the early season stage mean line-ups and late information could shift the outlook. Reduced staking or waiting for improvement is advised due to the negative , but the football read remains compelling for backing Hammarby to win.

Hammarby home formStrongest in Allsvenskan with 19 points from 8 matches
Strong positive
Recent form3 wins post-break, 8 goals scored, 1 conceded
Strong positive
Anderlecht transitionNew manager, new defensive players, no recent competitive games
Negative
Model chance vs marketModel 43% chance vs market implied 50% chance
Negative
Data qualityLimited data on Anderlecht increases uncertainty
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Hammarby FF's superior match sharpness and dominant home record provide a tactical edge in this qualifier. Their attacking trio offers multiple threats that could exploit Anderlecht's new defensive partnerships. Anderlecht's lack of recent competitive intensity and ongoing integration of new players make them vulnerable to Hammarby's rhythm and pressure, supporting a home win outcome.

Main risk

Those performances may have helped Bruno introduce his ideas, but Thursday will bring a very different test.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Hammarby's established domestic momentum and attacking depth create a clear tactical advantage over Anderlecht's transitional side, making a home victory the most plausible outcome in this first-leg tie.”

Key Data Signals

Hammarby FF to Win evidence

Hammarby have the strongest home record in the Allsvenskan with 19 points from 8 matches.

Recent form favors Hammarby with three consecutive wins scoring 8 goals and conceding only 1.

Anderlecht are in transition with a new manager and new defensive players, lacking recent competitive matches.

Paulos Abraham leads Hammarby's attack with 8 goals in 14 league appearances, supported by Madjed and Besara.

What To Watch In The Data

Hammarby FF to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches, Hammarby have demonstrated a strong tendency for matches exceeding 2.5 goals, with their attacking players frequently finding the net.
  • Anderlecht's defensive adjustments and new personnel may lead to defensive lapses, increasing the likelihood of a high-tempo game with multiple goals.
  • The trend suggests an open contest with potential for goals from both sides, aligning with the tactical indicators of sustained pressure and counter-attacking threat.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickHammarby FF to WinBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 47% · edge -3.5 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Hammarby FF Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The for Hammarby FF to win are currently priced at 2.0, implying a 50% chance, which is above the model's 43% estimated probability. This indicates a price-sensitive market where the current price is short. The football context supports backing Hammarby due to their strong home form and recent winning streak, but the lack of competitive rhythm for Anderlecht and data limitations suggest caution. drift or stronger late data would enhance value.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Hammarby FF-
Avg goals scored
Anderlecht-
Hammarby FF-
Avg goals conceded
Anderlecht-
Hammarby FF-
BTTS rate
Anderlecht-
Hammarby FF-
Over 2.5 goals
Anderlecht-
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 50% · edge +4 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 32%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Hammarby's recent matches show a potent attack with eight goals scored in three games and only one conceded, suggesting an open game with goal-scoring opportunities. Anderlecht's new defensive partnerships may be vulnerable, increasing the likelihood of goals at both ends. The tactical balance between Hammarby's high press and Anderlecht's counter-attacking threat supports a match with goals and potential BTTS.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Hammarby FF

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Hammarby FF yet.

Anderlecht

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Anderlecht yet.

Market aligned with main pickHammarby FF to WinBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 47% · edge -3.5 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Hammarby FF Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Hammarby FF enter this fixture on a three-match winning streak following the mid-season break, scoring eight goals and conceding just once. This run reflects their regained attacking sharpness and defensive solidity, contrasting with Anderlecht's lack of recent competitive matches. The form data underscores Hammarby's and rhythm, which are critical advantages in this early European qualifier.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Hammarby FF wins
0Draws
0Anderlecht wins
Market aligned with main pickHammarby FF to WinBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 47% · edge -3.5 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
There is no recent head-to-head data available between Hammarby FF and Anderlecht, limiting direct historical insight. Therefore, the match outcome will rely more heavily on current form, tactical setups, and team cohesion. The absence of prior meetings places greater emphasis on the teams' present competitive conditions and player readiness.
Season team stats

UEFA Europa League

Hammarby FF1
Played
Anderlecht1
Hammarby FF1
Avg goals for
Anderlecht1
Hammarby FF1
Avg goals against
Anderlecht1
Hammarby FF0
Clean sheets
Anderlecht0
Market aligned with main pickHammarby FF to WinBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 47% · edge -3.5 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
Hammarby FF Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Hammarby FF's season statistics reveal a strong attacking output combined with improved defensive balance, conceding only one goal in their last three matches. Their home record is the best in the Allsvenskan, with six wins and just one loss from eight games. This consistent performance underpins their ability to control matches and sustain pressure, supporting the likelihood of a home victory against Anderlecht's evolving side.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Hammarby FF Over 2.5
-Anderlecht Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Hammarby have demonstrated a strong tendency for matches exceeding 2.5 goals, with their attacking players frequently finding the net. Anderlecht's defensive adjustments and new personnel may lead to defensive lapses, increasing the likelihood of a high-tempo game with multiple goals. The trend suggests an open contest with potential for goals from both sides, aligning with the tactical indicators of sustained pressure and counter-attacking threat.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Hammarby FF v Anderlecht prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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