Hamilton Academical

Queen of the South

League One | Sat 19 Sep, 15:00

Hamilton Academical v Queen of the South Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:47 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Hamilton Academical host Queen of the South in a League One clash where the home side currently sit second with strong defensive form, having conceded no goals in recent matches. Queen of the South, positioned tenth, struggle offensively and defensively, averaging just 0.8 goals scored and 2.8 conceded per game. The visitors' recent form is poor with only four points, while Hamilton have accumulated 13 points. This match presents a tactical battle between Hamilton's solid defense and Queen of the South's need to secure points to climb the table, with the away side likely to play cautiously to avoid defeat.

BT4Y best bet

Queen of the South Draw No Bet

Queen of the South offers strong value on Draw No Bet with a 42% versus 20% implied chance.
Hamilton Academical have conceded zero goals recently, indicating a tough defense to break down.
Queen of the South's attack is limited, averaging 0.8 goals per game, increasing draw likelihood.
Recent form favors Hamilton Academical, but Queen of the South's resilience suggests a cautious away approach.
Over 2.5 goals rate is higher for Queen of the South (60%) than Hamilton (20%), indicating potential for goals if visitors push forward.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Queen of the South on Draw No Bet due to their defensive resilience and the likelihood of a low-scoring game given Hamilton's strong defense and Queen of the South's limited attacking output. The significant arises from the market underestimating the away side's chances to avoid defeat, supported by their 42% compared to the 20% implied . The limited goal threat from Queen of the South and Hamilton's clean sheet form underpin this cautious but value-driven selection.

Model Chance vs Implied Chance42% vs 20%

Strong positive

Hamilton Defensive Form0 goals conceded recently

Strong positive

Queen of the South Attack0.8 goals per game

Positive

Recent Form DisparityHamilton 13 points, Queen 4 points

Neutral

Over 2.5 Goals RateQueen 60%, Hamilton 20%

Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Queen of the South's defensive approach and Hamilton Academical's recent clean sheets suggest a tight contest where the away side can avoid defeat. The Draw No Bet offers a sensible hedge against Hamilton's home strength while capitalizing on Queen of the South's resilience and potential to frustrate the hosts.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical and form-based rationale

“Queen of the South's cautious but disciplined defensive setup makes the Draw No Bet a smart choice, especially given Hamilton's strong defense and the visitors' need to secure points without overcommitting.”

Key Data Signals

Queen of the South Draw No Bet evidence

Queen of the South offers strong value on Draw No Bet with a 42% versus 20% implied chance.

Hamilton Academical have conceded zero goals recently, indicating a tough defense to break down.

Queen of the South's attack is limited, averaging 0.8 goals per game, increasing draw likelihood.

Recent form favors Hamilton Academical, but Queen of the South's resilience suggests a cautious away approach.

What To Watch In The Data

Queen of the South Draw No Bet notes

The last ten meetings average 3.4 goals per game, indicating a historically open fixture.
However, current form and defensive records suggest this match may see fewer goals, with the Over 2.5 goals trend less likely to manifest despite past averages.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Hamilton Academical1.4

Avg goals scored

Queen of the South0.8

Hamilton Academical0

Avg goals conceded

Queen of the South2.8

Hamilton Academical0%

BTTS rate

Queen of the South60%

Hamilton Academical20%

Over 2.5 goals

Queen of the South60%

Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 48% · edge +3.7 pts

2.08

Check odds @ 2.08

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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 70%

1.22

Check odds @ 1.22

BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%

2.75

Check odds @ 2.75

Given Hamilton's recent clean sheets and Queen of the South's low scoring rate, this match leans towards a low-scoring affair with a strong chance of BTTS No. However, Queen of the South's 60% Over 2.5 goals rate hints at occasional offensive bursts, suggesting controlled goal scoring rather than an open game.

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickQueen of the South Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 35% vs implied 20% · edge +15 pts

Check odds @ 5

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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

Queen of the South to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%

8.5

Check odds @ 8.5

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

The Draw No Bet on Queen of the South is priced attractively, with a 5.0 offering significant value compared to the model's 42% chance. This disparity suggests the market underestimates the away side's ability to avoid defeat, making it a positive value bet without warning flags.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Hamilton Academical

WWDWW

Last 54W 1D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 105W 1D 0L

05 Sep 2026A East Kilbride1-0

29 Aug 2026H Cove Rangers1-0

22 Aug 2026A East Fife0-0

15 Aug 2026H Airdrie United4-0

08 Aug 2026H Alloa Athletic1-0

Queen of the South

LDWLL

Last 51W 1D 3L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 1D 5L

15 Sep 2026A Ross County0-8

12 Sep 2026H East Fife1-1

05 Sep 2026H Airdrie United2-1

29 Aug 2026A Montrose1-2

22 Aug 2026H Alloa Athletic0-2

Market aligned with main pickQueen of the South Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 35% vs implied 20% · edge +15 pts

Check odds @ 5

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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 45%

3.25

Check odds @ 3.25

Queen of the South to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%

8.5

Check odds @ 8.5

Hamilton Academical's recent form is strong, with 13 points and zero goals conceded, reflecting defensive discipline. Queen of the South's four points and higher goals conceded rate indicate struggles, but their resilience could help them avoid defeat, supporting the Draw No Bet selection.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Hamilton Academical wins

1Draws

4Queen of the South wins

14 Mar 2026Hamilton Academical v Queen of the South1-3

27 Dec 2025Queen of the South v Hamilton Academical4-1

24 Oct 2025Hamilton Academical v Queen of the South1-2

09 Aug 2025Queen of the South v Hamilton Academical1-4

30 Mar 2024Hamilton Academical v Queen of the South0-0

03 Feb 2024Queen of the South v Hamilton Academical0-2

Market aligned with main pickQueen of the South to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 23% vs implied 12% · edge +11.2 pts

8.5

Check odds @ 8.5

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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

The head-to-head record shows a relatively high average of 3.4 goals per match over ten games, suggesting past encounters were open and attacking. However, current defensive form and tactical caution from Queen of the South reduce the likelihood of a high-scoring game this time, making the historical data less predictive.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

League One

Hamilton Academical6

Played

Queen of the South7

Hamilton Academical2

Avg goals for

Queen of the South0.7

Hamilton Academical0

Avg goals against

Queen of the South2.9

Hamilton Academical6

Clean sheets

Queen of the South0

Market aligned with main pickQueen of the South Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 35% vs implied 20% · edge +15 pts

Check odds @ 5

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Queen of the South to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%

8.5

Check odds @ 8.5

Season-long stats show Hamilton Academical as a defensively robust team with a low goals-against average, while Queen of the South have struggled both offensively and defensively. This contrast supports a cautious game where the away side can secure at least a draw without conceding heavily.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
2	Hamilton Academical	16	6	5	1	0	12
10	Queen of the South	4	7	1	1	5	-15

Hamilton Academical's second-place standing reflects consistent performance and home strength, while Queen of the South's tenth position signals a fight to avoid the bottom. The standings suggest Hamilton are favorites, but the away side's need for points may drive a defensive, risk-averse approach.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Hamilton Academical Over 2.5

60%Queen of the South Over 2.5

3.4H2H avg goals

The last ten meetings average 3.4 goals per game, indicating a historically open fixture. However, current form and defensive records suggest this match may see fewer goals, with the Over 2.5 goals trend less likely to manifest despite past averages.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

Hamilton Academical v Queen of the South Stats

Match Report

Queen of the South Draw No Bet

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Hamilton Academical

Queen of the South

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Football Stats Hub

Hamilton Academical v Queen of the South Stats

Match Report

Queen of the South Draw No Bet

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Hamilton Academical

Queen of the South

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