Hamburger SV

FSV Mainz 05

Bundesliga | Sun 06 Sep, 14:30

Hamburger SV v FSV Mainz 05 Stats

Data last updated: Sat 05 Sep 2026, 08:09 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Hamburger SV and FSV Mainz 05 meet in a Bundesliga clash where both teams have shown a cautious approach in recent matches. Hamburger SV have yet to score this season while conceding twice, and Mainz have secured a point without conceding. Both sides are still seeking attacking rhythm, and the tactical setup suggests a tight contest with limited goal-scoring opportunities. The match could hinge on defensive solidity and midfield control, with neither side having demonstrated prolific finishing so far this campaign.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

Hamburger SV have scored 0 goals and conceded 2 in recent matches, showing a low-scoring trend.
FSV Mainz 05 have kept clean sheets and have a point, indicating defensive resilience.
Both teams have 0% BTTS rate recently, supporting a low-scoring game.
Hamburger SV average only 8 shots per game versus Mainz's 21, but both lack clinical finishing.
The model estimates a 66% chance for Under 2.5 Goals, with a strong at 2.1 .

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals due to both teams' recent low scoring and defensive solidity. Hamburger SV have yet to find the net while conceding twice, and Mainz have maintained clean sheets with limited attacking output. The average shots and shots on target suggest cautious offensive play, reinforcing the likelihood of a low-scoring game. The offer positive value with an 18.4% edge, making this a sensible selection based on current form and statistical trends.

Recent low scoringHamburger SV 0 goals, Mainz 0 goals in recent matches

Strong positive

Defensive solidityMainz kept clean sheets, Hamburger SV conceded only 2

Positive

Shooting volumeBoth teams have moderate shots but low conversion

Positive

Odds value18.4% value edge at 2.1 odds

Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

This Under 2.5 Goals pick reflects the cautious starts from both Hamburger SV and Mainz, who have struggled to convert chances into goals. The defensive discipline shown so far suggests a tight match with limited scoring. The data supports a low-scoring outcome, making this a tactically sound and statistically backed choice.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match tactical and statistical analysis

“The early-season form and shot profiles indicate a match likely to be decided by narrow margins, with both teams prioritizing defensive organization over attacking risk.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Hamburger SV have scored 0 goals and conceded 2 in recent matches, showing a low-scoring trend.

FSV Mainz 05 have kept clean sheets and have a point, indicating defensive resilience.

Both teams have 0% BTTS rate recently, supporting a low-scoring game.

Hamburger SV average only 8 shots per game versus Mainz's 21, but both lack clinical finishing.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.5, indicating a moderate scoring history.
However, recent matches and current form suggest a slower tempo and fewer chances, making Over 2.5 Goals less likely in this fixture despite historical averages.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Hamburger SV1

Avg corners for

FSV Mainz 0511

Hamburger SV4

Avg total corners

FSV Mainz 0513

Hamburger SV1

Avg yellow cards

FSV Mainz 051

Hamburger SV8

Avg shots

FSV Mainz 0521

Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.

2.02

Check odds @ 2.02

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Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 49%

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 51%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 55%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

Hamburger SV average only 1 corner per game compared to Mainz's 11, indicating limited attacking pressure from the home side. Both teams average just 1 yellow card per match, suggesting disciplined play. The shot data shows Mainz take more shots but with limited accuracy, supporting a scenario of controlled, low-intensity attacking phases.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Hamburger SV0

Avg goals scored

FSV Mainz 050

Hamburger SV2

Avg goals conceded

FSV Mainz 050

Hamburger SV0%

BTTS rate

FSV Mainz 050%

Hamburger SV0%

Over 2.5 goals

FSV Mainz 050%

Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 59%

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%

2.75

Check odds @ 2.75

Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 52%

1.22

Check odds @ 1.22

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 32%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

Recent form shows no goals scored by Hamburger SV and a clean sheet maintained by Mainz, with both teams registering 0% BTTS rates. This points to a low likelihood of both teams scoring, reinforcing the Under 2.5 Goals angle as both sides have struggled to create and convert chances.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionFSV Mainz 05 Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 53% · edge +11 pts

1.88

Check odds @ 1.88

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FSV Mainz 05 to WinBet365 guide price · model 55%

2.35

Check odds @ 2.35

Hamburger SV Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%

1.92

Check odds @ 1.92

Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 51%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

DrawBetUK guide price · model 26%

3.5

Check odds @ 3.5

Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 55%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

Hamburger SV to WinBetUK guide price · model 29%

2.9

Check odds @ 2.9

The Under 2.5 Goals market is priced attractively at 2.1, reflecting a 66% versus a 47.6% implied chance, indicating clear value. This price sensitivity suggests the market may underestimate the defensive tendencies and low scoring trends observed so far, making this a strong candidate for a value bet.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Hamburger SV

Last 50W 0D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 0D 1L

29 Aug 2026A Borussia Dortmund0-2

FSV Mainz 05

Last 50W 1D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 1D 0L

29 Aug 2026H SC Paderborn 070-0

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 81% vs implied 71% · edge +9.5 pts

1.4

Check odds @ 1.4

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FSV Mainz 05 Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%

1.88

Check odds @ 1.88

FSV Mainz 05 to WinBet365 guide price · model 55%

2.35

Check odds @ 2.35

Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 54%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

Hamburger SV Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%

1.92

Check odds @ 1.92

DrawBetUK guide price · model 26%

3.5

Check odds @ 3.5

Hamburger SV to WinBetUK guide price · model 29%

2.9

Check odds @ 2.9

Hamburger SV have failed to score in recent matches while conceding twice, and Mainz have kept clean sheets but also failed to score. Both teams' recent matches have stayed under 2.5 goals, confirming a trend of low scoring and defensive caution that aligns with the Under 2.5 Goals pick.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Hamburger SV wins

4Draws

3FSV Mainz 05 wins

20 Feb 2026FSV Mainz 05 v Hamburger SV1-1

05 Oct 2025Hamburger SV v FSV Mainz 054-0

03 Mar 2018Hamburger SV v FSV Mainz 050-0

14 Oct 2017FSV Mainz 05 v Hamburger SV3-2

07 May 2017Hamburger SV v FSV Mainz 050-0

17 Dec 2016FSV Mainz 05 v Hamburger SV3-1

Best odds for this sectionFSV Mainz 05 to WinBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 43% · edge +12.7 pts

2.35

Check odds @ 2.35

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DrawBetUK guide price · model 26%

3.5

Check odds @ 3.5

Hamburger SV to WinBetUK guide price · model 29%

2.9

Check odds @ 2.9

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 32%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

The head-to-head sample of ten matches shows an average of 2.5 goals per game, suggesting balanced encounters historically. However, the current tactical setups and recent low-scoring form of both teams weaken the direct relevance of past results, emphasizing defensive caution over attacking output in this fixture.

Season team stats

Bundesliga

Hamburger SV1

Played

FSV Mainz 051

Hamburger SV0

Avg goals for

FSV Mainz 050

Hamburger SV2

Avg goals against

FSV Mainz 050

Hamburger SV0

Clean sheets

FSV Mainz 051

Best odds for this sectionFSV Mainz 05 Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 53% · edge +11 pts

1.88

Check odds @ 1.88

Load more odds for this section

FSV Mainz 05 to WinBet365 guide price · model 55%

2.35

Check odds @ 2.35

Hamburger SV Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%

1.92

Check odds @ 1.92

Hamburger SV to WinBetUK guide price · model 29%

2.9

Check odds @ 2.9

Season-long data shows both teams averaging low goals per game and maintaining solid defensive records. Hamburger SV's attack has struggled to produce goals, while Mainz's defense has been relatively tight. These season stats underpin the expectation of a low-scoring match with limited goal-scoring opportunities.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
11	FSV Mainz 05	1	1	0	1	0	0
15	Hamburger SV	0	1	0	0	1	-2

Hamburger SV sits near the relegation zone with no points, increasing pressure to avoid defeat but possibly encouraging cautious tactics. Mainz, positioned mid-table with a point, may prioritize defensive stability over risky attacking play. The standings context supports a conservative game plan from both sides, favoring fewer goals.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Hamburger SV Over 2.5

0%FSV Mainz 05 Over 2.5

2.5H2H avg goals

Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.5, indicating a moderate scoring history. However, recent matches and current form suggest a slower tempo and fewer chances, making Over 2.5 Goals less likely in this fixture despite historical averages.

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Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

Hamburger SV v FSV Mainz 05 Stats

Match Report

Under 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Hamburger SV

FSV Mainz 05

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Football Stats Hub

Hamburger SV v FSV Mainz 05 Stats

Match Report

Under 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Hamburger SV

FSV Mainz 05

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