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Haiti crestHaiti
v
Peru crestPeru

Friendlies | Sat 06 Jun, 01:00

Haiti v Peru Stats

Data last updated: Fri 05 Jun 2026, 05:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Haiti hosts Peru in an international friendly that offers a platform for both teams to test squad depth and tactical approaches ahead of more competitive fixtures. Haiti enters this match with stronger recent form, having secured 4 points in their last outings compared to Peru's single point, reflecting a more effective attack and tighter defense. Peru's defensive vulnerabilities and Haiti's home advantage set the stage for a competitive encounter where Haiti aims to capitalize on momentum and tactical cohesion without the pressure of tournament stakes.

BT4Y best bet

Haiti to Win

  • Haiti has earned 4 points recently versus Peru's 1, showing better form.
  • Haiti averages 1.67 goals scored and concedes only 0.67 per game, indicating solid defense.
  • Peru concedes 2 goals per game on average, highlighting defensive weaknesses.
  • Haiti's attackers, including M. Labissiere, show high shot and goal threat metrics.
  • Peru's lower shot volume and goal threat suggest limited offensive pressure in this fixture.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Haiti to win with a 67.4% chance based on their superior recent form, stronger attacking output, and more robust defensive record. Haiti's higher average shots and shots on target per game, combined with Peru's defensive frailties and lower offensive threat, underpin this . The absence of data limitations supports a reliable model assessment. Although this is a friendly, Haiti's home advantage and momentum provide a clear football rationale for backing their victory.

Recent form advantageHaiti 4 points vs Peru 1 point
Strong positive
Goal scoring and defenseHaiti 1.67 GF, 0.67 GA; Peru 1 GF, 2 GA
Strong positive
Shot volume and accuracyHaiti 13 shots, 7 SOT; Peru 7.5 shots, 2 SOT
Strong positive
Player attacking metricsPrunier and Labissiere high shots and goals per 90
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Haiti's recent form and attacking efficiency make them the logical choice to win this friendly against Peru. Their ability to create and convert chances, combined with a more stable defense, contrasts with Peru's struggles at the back and limited offensive threat, suggesting Haiti can secure victory in this encounter.

Main risk

The main risk lies in the friendly nature of the match, which can lead to experimental line-ups and less intensity, potentially reducing the reliability of form and player data signals.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Haiti's sharper attacking players and defensive solidity give them a clear edge over Peru, whose defensive lapses and lower shot threat could be decisive in this friendly.”

Key Data Signals

Haiti to Win evidence

Haiti has earned 4 points recently versus Peru's 1, showing better form.

Haiti averages 1.67 goals scored and concedes only 0.67 per game, indicating solid defense.

Peru concedes 2 goals per game on average, highlighting defensive weaknesses.

Haiti's attackers, including M. Labissiere, show high shot and goal threat metrics.

What To Watch In The Data

Haiti to Win notes

  • Recent trends over the last five matches show moderate Over 2.5 Goals rates for both teams, with Peru at 50% and Haiti at 33%.
  • The average goals in their single previous meeting was low at 1, suggesting a cautious tempo and defensive solidity that may limit goal-scoring opportunities in this fixture.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Haiti5
Avg corners for
Peru5.5
Haiti13
Avg total corners
Peru12.5
Haiti0
Avg yellow cards
Peru2
Haiti13
Avg shots
Peru7.5
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 75% vs implied 51% · edge +23.7 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Haiti and Peru average similar corner counts, indicating balanced territorial exchanges. Haiti's higher shot and shots on target numbers reflect more sustained pressure and better finishing opportunities. Peru's higher yellow card average suggests a more aggressive or reactive defensive approach, potentially impacting match tempo and discipline.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Haiti1.67
Avg goals scored
Peru1
Haiti0.67
Avg goals conceded
Peru2
Haiti33%
BTTS rate
Peru50%
Haiti33%
Over 2.5 goals
Peru50%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 60% · edge +6.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 37%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
The goal and BTTS data suggest a controlled scoring environment with Haiti averaging 1.67 goals and Peru 1.0, while both teams have relatively low BTTS rates (Haiti 33%, Peru 50%). This points to a match where Haiti's defense may limit Peru's scoring chances, favoring a BTTS No scenario and moderate goal totals.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickHaiti to WinBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 32% · edge +35.1 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Load more odds for this section
Haiti Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 75%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 37%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
The pricing for Haiti to win reflects their strong recent form and statistical superiority in attack and defense. While exact are unavailable, the model's 67.4% win probability indicates a confident stance. Without price warnings, this pick stands as a solid football-based selection rather than a speculative value bet.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Haiti

WDL
Last 51W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 1L
03 Jun 2026H New Zealand4-0
31 Mar 2026H Iceland1-1
29 Mar 2026H Tunisia0-1

Peru

DL
Last 50W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 1L
31 Mar 2026H Honduras2-2
28 Mar 2026A Senegal0-2
Market aligned with main pickHaiti to WinBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 32% · edge +35.1 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Load more odds for this section
Haiti Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 75%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Haiti's recent form is notably stronger, securing 4 points with a positive goal difference, while Peru has managed only 1 point and concedes twice as many goals per game. This contrast highlights Haiti's momentum and defensive resilience, supporting in their ability to control the match and secure a win.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Haiti wins
0Draws
1Peru wins
05 Jun 2016Haiti v Peru0-1
Market aligned with main pickHaiti to WinBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 32% · edge +35.1 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 37%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
With only one previous meeting averaging a low goal count of 1, the head-to-head record offers limited support for expecting a high-scoring or dominant outcome. This small sample size means current form and player metrics provide more reliable guidance for this match.
Season team stats

Friendlies

Haiti3
Played
Peru2
Haiti1.7
Avg goals for
Peru1
Haiti0.7
Avg goals against
Peru2
Haiti1
Clean sheets
Peru0
Market aligned with main pickHaiti to WinBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 32% · edge +35.1 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Load more odds for this section
Haiti Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 75%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Season-long statistics reinforce Haiti's superiority with a higher goals scored average and a tighter defense conceding fewer goals than Peru. These season trends align with the model's pick, indicating Haiti's consistent ability to outperform Peru in both attack and defense over time.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Haiti Over 2.5
50%Peru Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
Recent trends over the last five matches show moderate Over 2.5 Goals rates for both teams, with Peru at 50% and Haiti at 33%. The average goals in their single previous meeting was low at 1, suggesting a cautious tempo and defensive solidity that may limit goal-scoring opportunities in this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Haiti v Peru prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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