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Gubbio crestGubbio
v
Perugia crestPerugia

Serie C - Girone B | Sat 03 Oct, 13:30

Gubbio v Perugia Stats

Data last updated: Fri 02 Oct 2026, 10:42 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Gubbio hosts Perugia in a Serie C - Girone B clash with both teams showing contrasting recent form and tactical approaches. Gubbio has collected 7 points with a balanced attack and defense, while Perugia sits higher in the standings with 10 points but has struggled offensively, scoring only 0.6 goals per game. Gubbio's home advantage and slightly better goal production set the stage for a competitive match where tactical discipline and finishing efficiency will be decisive. The fixture promises a tactical battle with Gubbio aiming to capitalize on their home form against a Perugia side that has shown defensive vulnerabilities.

BT4Y best bet

Gubbio to Win

  • Gubbio has a 55.8% to win, with at 2.75 offering strong value.
  • Gubbio averages 1.6 goals scored and conceded per game, indicating balanced play.
  • Perugia has a lower scoring rate (0.6 goals per game) and concedes 1.8 goals on average.
  • Recent form shows Gubbio with 7 points and Perugia with 6 points in their last matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals occur 40% of the time for Gubbio and 60% for Perugia, suggesting moderate goal potential.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Gubbio to win due to their stronger recent form and more balanced attacking and defensive output compared to Perugia. Gubbio's home advantage and higher goal-scoring rate underpin the 55.8% win probability, which is significantly above the implied market chance of 36.4%, indicating positive value. The data quality is solid with no major limitations, supporting in this selection. The model recognizes Perugia's offensive struggles and defensive concessions as factors tilting the match in Gubbio's favor.

Model Win Probability55.8%
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance51.4% model chance vs 36.4% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Gubbio Goals For/Against1.6 scored, 1.6 conceded per game
Positive
Perugia Goals For/Against0.6 scored, 1.8 conceded per game
Negative
Recent Form PointsGubbio 7, Perugia 6
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Gubbio's home form and balanced scoring and defending give them a tactical edge over Perugia, who have struggled offensively this season. The data supports backing Gubbio to win as they are more likely to control the game tempo and convert chances effectively.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Gubbio's ability to maintain equilibrium between attack and defense, combined with Perugia's offensive inefficiency, makes the home side a compelling choice in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Gubbio to Win evidence

Gubbio has a 55.8% to win, with at 2.75 offering strong value.

Gubbio averages 1.6 goals scored and conceded per game, indicating balanced play.

Perugia has a lower scoring rate (0.6 goals per game) and concedes 1.8 goals on average.

Recent form shows Gubbio with 7 points and Perugia with 6 points in their last matches.

What To Watch In The Data

Gubbio to Win notes

  • Over the last nine head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.78, indicating generally low to moderate scoring games.
  • This trend suggests a tactical contest with limited goal-scoring opportunities, aligning with the moderate over 2.5 goals rates seen in recent form for both teams.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Gubbio

LLDWW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 4L
27 Sep 2026A Ravenna0-2
20 Sep 2026H Ostia Mare0-2
16 Sep 2026A Pescara1-1
12 Sep 2026H Latina3-1
05 Sep 2026A Campobasso FC4-2

Perugia

WLLLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 3L
27 Sep 2026H Reggiana1-0
20 Sep 2026A Grosseto0-2
16 Sep 2026H Spezia0-3
13 Sep 2026A Ravenna0-3
06 Sep 2026H Pineto2-1
Market aligned with main pickGubbio to WinBetfred guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 82%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Gubbio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Gubbio's recent form with 7 points reflects consistent performance and the ability to secure results, contrasting with Perugia's 6 points and lower goal output. This form suggests Gubbio is better positioned to impose their game plan and capitalize on home advantage in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Gubbio1.6
Avg goals scored
Perugia0.6
Gubbio1.6
Avg goals conceded
Perugia1.8
Gubbio60%
BTTS rate
Perugia20%
Gubbio40%
Over 2.5 goals
Perugia60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 55% · edge +5.4 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 31%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Gubbio's average of 1.6 goals scored and conceded per game indicates a balanced game with moderate goal flow. Perugia's lower scoring rate and higher concession rate suggest they may struggle to keep clean sheets, supporting a moderate expectation for goals and a decent chance of both teams scoring, given Gubbio's 60% BTTS rate.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGubbio to WinBetfred guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Gubbio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
The 51.4% for Gubbio to Win sits against roughly 36.4% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Gubbio have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 6 for Perugia.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Gubbio Over 2.5
60%Perugia Over 2.5
1.78H2H avg goals
Over the last nine head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.78, indicating generally low to moderate scoring games. This trend suggests a tactical contest with limited goal-scoring opportunities, aligning with the moderate over 2.5 goals rates seen in recent form for both teams.

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