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Grosseto crestGrosseto
v
Sambenedettese crestSambenedettese

Serie C - Girone B | Sat 03 Oct, 16:30

Grosseto v Sambenedettese Stats

Data last updated: Fri 02 Oct 2026, 10:42 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Grosseto enters this Serie C Girone B clash in strong form, sitting third with 15 points and a solid defensive record conceding just 0.4 goals per game. Sambenedettese struggles near the bottom with only 2 points and a leaky defense allowing 2 goals per match. Grosseto's home solidity and recent momentum contrast sharply with Sambenedettese's difficulties, setting up a contest where Grosseto is expected to control proceedings and secure victory.

BT4Y best bet

Grosseto to Win

  • Grosseto ranks 3rd with 15 points, Sambenedettese 20th with 2 points.
  • Grosseto concedes only 0.4 goals per game, Sambenedettese concedes 2.
  • Grosseto's recent form yields 11 points; Sambenedettese has just 1.
  • Sambenedettese has 100% BTTS rate, Grosseto only 20%.
  • Over 2.5 goals occur 40% in Grosseto games, 80% in Sambenedettese matches.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 74% chance for Grosseto to win, reflecting their superior form, defensive strength, and league position. Grosseto's ability to limit goals against and accumulate points contrasts with Sambenedettese's struggles, making the home win a strong value bet at 1.65 . The data quality is solid, supporting in this selection without price warnings.

Model Win Probability74%
Strong positive
Grosseto Defensive Record0.4 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Sambenedettese Defensive Weakness2 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsGrosseto 11 vs Sambenedettese 1
Strong positive
Value Edge73.8% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Grosseto's consistent defensive discipline and strong recent form make them the clear favorite to win this fixture. Sambenedettese's poor results and defensive vulnerabilities suggest they will struggle to contain Grosseto's organized attack, supporting a confident home win prediction.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Grosseto's defensive solidity and league standing provide a tactical and statistical foundation for expecting a home victory, especially against a struggling Sambenedettese side.”

Key Data Signals

Grosseto to Win evidence

Grosseto ranks 3rd with 15 points, Sambenedettese 20th with 2 points.

Grosseto concedes only 0.4 goals per game, Sambenedettese concedes 2.

Grosseto's recent form yields 11 points; Sambenedettese has just 1.

Sambenedettese has 100% BTTS rate, Grosseto only 20%.

What To Watch In The Data

Grosseto to Win notes

  • Over the recent matches, Grosseto games have seen 40% over 2.5 goals, while Sambenedettese's matches hit 80%.
  • This suggests a potential for goals but also indicates Grosseto's matches are generally tighter.
  • The trend points to a moderate tempo game with chances for goals but likely controlled by Grosseto's defense.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Grosseto2
Avg goals scored
Sambenedettese1.2
Grosseto0.4
Avg goals conceded
Sambenedettese2
Grosseto20%
BTTS rate
Sambenedettese100%
Grosseto40%
Over 2.5 goals
Sambenedettese80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 56% · edge +14.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 77%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 41%
3
Check odds @ 3
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 34%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Sambenedettese's 100% BTTS rate contrasts with Grosseto's 20%, indicating that Grosseto often keeps clean sheets while Sambenedettese concedes regularly. The low goals conceded by Grosseto and their controlled scoring suggest a match leaning towards BTTS No, with goals likely limited and controlled by Grosseto's defense.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGrosseto to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Grosseto Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The 73.8% for Grosseto to Win sits against roughly 58.8% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Grosseto have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 1 for Sambenedettese.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Grosseto

WWDDW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 0L
26 Sep 2026A Pineto4-0
20 Sep 2026H Perugia2-0
16 Sep 2026H Campobasso FC2-2
12 Sep 2026A Pianese0-0
06 Sep 2026H Torres2-0

Sambenedettese

LDLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 5L
26 Sep 2026H Campobasso FC1-2
21 Sep 2026A Pianese1-1
16 Sep 2026H Atalanta II2-3
12 Sep 2026A Pineto1-2
06 Sep 2026H Spezia1-2
Market aligned with main pickGrosseto to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Grosseto Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Grosseto's accumulation of 11 points recently contrasts sharply with Sambenedettese's single point, highlighting a momentum advantage. Grosseto's ability to secure results while conceding few goals underlines their current form superiority, reinforcing in their capacity to win this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Grosseto Over 2.5
80%Sambenedettese Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the recent matches, Grosseto games have seen 40% over 2.5 goals, while Sambenedettese's matches hit 80%. This suggests a potential for goals but also indicates Grosseto's matches are generally tighter. The trend points to a moderate tempo game with chances for goals but likely controlled by Grosseto's defense.

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