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Grimsby crestGrimsby
v
Shrewsbury crestShrewsbury

League Two | Sat 03 Oct, 15:00

Grimsby v Shrewsbury Stats

Data last updated: Sat 03 Oct 2026, 18:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Grimsby enters this League Two clash with a robust home record, having secured 10 points from four matches at Blundell Park and maintaining three clean sheets. Their defensive solidity contrasts sharply with Shrewsbury's struggles on the road, where they have scored just once in four away fixtures. While Shrewsbury arrives unbeaten in three league matches, their away form remains a concern, facing a Grimsby side that has demonstrated resilience and efficiency in front of goal. This matchup sets the stage for a test of Grimsby's home strength against Shrewsbury's improving but still fragile attack.

BT4Y best bet

Grimsby to Win

  • Grimsby has kept three clean sheets in four home League Two matches.
  • Shrewsbury has scored only one goal in four away league games.
  • Grimsby secured consecutive 2-0 home wins recently, highlighting defensive and attacking balance.
  • Shrewsbury is unbeaten in three league matches but has poor away scoring form.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Grimsby to win due to their strong home defensive record and effective attack, scoring 12 goals in eight matches while conceding only two at home. Shrewsbury's away struggles, with just one goal scored and eight conceded in four away games, further tilt the probability towards Grimsby. The 63.7% exceeds the implied market chance, indicating a positive . The data quality is solid, with comprehensive stats supporting this view.

Home Defensive StrengthGrimsby conceded only 2 goals in 4 home matches
Strong positive
Away Scoring WeaknessShrewsbury scored 1 goal in 4 away matches
Strong positive
Recent Home WinsGrimsby won last two home games 2-0
Positive
Model vs Market63.7% model chance vs 59.9% implied (+3.8 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Grimsby's consistent defensive resilience at home combined with Shrewsbury's poor away scoring record makes a home win the most plausible outcome. The Mariners' ability to keep clean sheets and capitalize on their chances provides a tactical and statistical foundation for victory in this fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Grimsby's home form and defensive discipline create a strong platform against Shrewsbury's struggling away attack, making the home win a logical and well-supported prediction.”

Key Data Signals

Grimsby to Win evidence

Grimsby has kept three clean sheets in four home League Two matches.

Shrewsbury has scored only one goal in four away league games.

Grimsby secured consecutive 2-0 home wins recently, highlighting defensive and attacking balance.

Shrewsbury is unbeaten in three league matches but has poor away scoring form.

What To Watch In The Data

Grimsby to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 1.6, indicating a tendency towards lower-scoring encounters.
  • Grimsby's recent home matches have a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals, but Shrewsbury's away games show only 40%, suggesting a moderate tempo with limited high-scoring potential in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Grimsby1.8
Avg goals scored
Shrewsbury1
Grimsby1.2
Avg goals conceded
Shrewsbury1.6
Grimsby60%
BTTS rate
Shrewsbury40%
Grimsby60%
Over 2.5 goals
Shrewsbury40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 58% · edge +8.9 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Both teams to score is unlikely given Shrewsbury's poor away scoring record and Grimsby's three clean sheets at home. The under 3.5 goals route is supported by Grimsby's recent 2-0 wins and Shrewsbury's low goal output, suggesting a match with limited scoring opportunities for the visitors.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

League Two hubrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGrimsby to WinBetUK guide price · Model 64% vs implied 60% · edge +3.8 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 72%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Grimsby Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 72%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 63.7% for Grimsby to Win sits against roughly 59.9% implied by the current price (+3.8 pts). Grimsby have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 5 for Shrewsbury. Grimsby Town vs Shrewsbury Town: Mariners’ Home Strength Meets Shrews’ Away Problem.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Grimsby

LWWDD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 1L
26 Sep 2026A Newport County1-2
19 Sep 2026H Crawley Town2-0
12 Sep 2026H Bristol Rovers2-0
05 Sep 2026A Cheltenham2-2
01 Sep 2026A Accrington ST2-2

Shrewsbury

DDWLL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 4L
26 Sep 2026H Colchester2-2
19 Sep 2026A Crewe1-1
12 Sep 2026H Northampton2-0
05 Sep 2026A Fleetwood Town0-2
01 Sep 2026A Rochdale0-3
Market aligned with main pickGrimsby to WinBetUK guide price · Model 64% vs implied 60% · edge +3.8 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 86%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Grimsby Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 72%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Grimsby has accumulated 8 points recently with a strong goal-scoring rate of 1.8 per game and a solid defense conceding 1.2 goals. Shrewsbury's form is less consistent, earning 5 points with a lower scoring rate of 1 goal per game and conceding 1.6, highlighting the visitors' struggles to convert form into away success.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Grimsby Over 2.5
40%Shrewsbury Over 2.5
1.6H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 1.6, indicating a tendency towards lower-scoring encounters. Grimsby's recent home matches have a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals, but Shrewsbury's away games show only 40%, suggesting a moderate tempo with limited high-scoring potential in this fixture.

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