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Gremio crestGremio
v
Internacional crestInternacional

Serie A | Sun 11 Oct, 21:30

Gremio v Internacional Stats

Data last updated: Sat 10 Oct 2026, 08:55 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie A clash features Internacional visiting Gremio in a tightly contested relegation battle, with both teams hovering near the drop zone. Internacional holds a slight edge in recent form, securing two wins in their last three matches compared to Gremio's single point from two games. The tactical setup suggests Internacional will look to leverage their sharper attacking transitions and more consistent midfield creativity to break down Gremio's defense, while Gremio must tighten up at the back to avoid conceding early pressure. The stakes are high as both sides fight to climb out of the relegation zone, adding intensity and urgency to this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Internacional to Win

  • Internacional has a 61.8% to win, significantly higher than the 42% implied by , indicating strong value.
  • Gremio averages only 0.8 goals per game recently, while Internacional scores 1.6, showing better offensive form.
  • Internacional's recent form yields 6 points versus Gremio's 2, highlighting momentum advantage.
  • Both teams have high BTTS rates, but Internacional's 80% Over 2.5 goals rate suggests more open play.
  • Player stats show Internacional attackers like J. Bezerra create more shots and key passes, supporting their attacking threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Internacional to win with a 61.8% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and attacking output compared to Gremio. Internacional's ability to generate more shots and key passes per game, combined with Gremio's struggles to score and defend consistently, underpin this . The offer positive value given the implied chance is only 42%. This pick is supported by strong attacking metrics and recent momentum, making it a well-founded selection. No data limitations affect this assessment.

Model Chance54.2% model chance vs 39.2% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance54.2% model chance vs 39.2% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsInternacional 6 vs Gremio 2
Positive
Goals per GameInternacional 1.6 vs Gremio 0.8
Positive
Shots & Key PassesHigher for Internacional attackers
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Internacional's recent form and superior attacking creativity make them the logical choice to win this relegation six-pointer. Their ability to create more quality chances and convert them at a higher rate than Gremio provides a tactical and statistical edge that should translate into a positive result.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and attacking quality

“Internacional's sharper offensive patterns and recent momentum give them a clear advantage in this crucial fixture, especially given Gremio's scoring struggles and defensive vulnerabilities.”

Key Data Signals

Internacional to Win evidence

Internacional has a 61.8% to win, significantly higher than the 42% implied by , indicating strong value.

Gremio averages only 0.8 goals per game recently, while Internacional scores 1.6, showing better offensive form.

Internacional's recent form yields 6 points versus Gremio's 2, highlighting momentum advantage.

Both teams have high BTTS rates, but Internacional's 80% Over 2.5 goals rate suggests more open play.

What To Watch In The Data

Internacional to Win notes

  • The last 10 head-to-head matches average 2.6 goals per game, indicating a moderately open fixture historically.
  • Internacional's higher Over 2.5 goals rate (80%) in recent games suggests this match could follow that trend, with both teams contributing to goal-scoring opportunities and a lively tempo expected.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Gremio0.8
Avg goals scored
Internacional1.6
Gremio1.4
Avg goals conceded
Internacional1.8
Gremio60%
BTTS rate
Internacional80%
Gremio40%
Over 2.5 goals
Internacional80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 36%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams have relatively high BTTS rates, with Internacional at 80% and Gremio at 60%, indicating goals at both ends are likely. Internacional's 80% Over 2.5 goals rate suggests open, attacking games, while Gremio's lower scoring rate tempers expectations. This match could see multiple goals given the offensive tendencies and defensive lapses.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickInternacional to WinBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Internacional Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
The 54.2% for Internacional to Win sits against roughly 39.2% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Internacional have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 2 for Gremio.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Gremio

DDLLL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
07 Oct 2026A Remo1-1
20 Sep 2026H Palmeiras0-0
16 Sep 2026A Botafogo2-3
12 Sep 2026H Vasco DA Gama1-2
08 Sep 2026A Vitoria0-1

Internacional

WLWLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 4L
07 Oct 2026H Corinthians2-1
20 Sep 2026A Sao Paulo0-1
12 Sep 2026A Chapecoense-sc2-1
06 Sep 2026H Santos2-3
30 Aug 2026A Bahia2-3
Market aligned with main pickInternacional to WinBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Internacional Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Internacional's recent form is notably stronger, securing 6 points in their last matches compared to Gremio's 2 points. This momentum reflects better attacking output and defensive resilience, which should boost and execution in this critical fixture. Gremio's recent struggles to score and accumulate points highlight their vulnerability.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Gremio Over 2.5
80%Internacional Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
The last 10 head-to-head matches average 2.6 goals per game, indicating a moderately open fixture historically. Internacional's higher Over 2.5 goals rate (80%) in recent games suggests this match could follow that trend, with both teams contributing to goal-scoring opportunities and a lively tempo expected.

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