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Gillingham crestGillingham
v
Brighton U21 crestBrighton U21

EFL Trophy | Tue 13 Oct, 19:00

Gillingham v Brighton U21 Stats

Data last updated: Mon 12 Oct 2026, 08:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This EFL Trophy clash between Gillingham and Brighton U21 promises an open contest with both sides showing contrasting recent form. Gillingham have struggled defensively, conceding four goals in their last match, while Brighton U21 have kept a clean sheet and scored three. Both teams have a strong tendency for high-scoring games, with Gillingham hitting over 2.5 goals in all recent outings and Brighton U21 matching that rate. The tactical setup suggests an attacking approach from both sides, increasing the likelihood of multiple goals in this midweek fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Gillingham and Brighton U21 both have 100% over 2.5 goals rate recently.
  • Brighton U21 have kept a clean sheet in their last game, showing defensive solidity.
  • Gillingham conceded 4 goals in their last match, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
  • The only previous meeting between these teams featured 5 goals, supporting a high-scoring trend.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 58% chance to Over 3.5 Goals, reflecting strong attacking tendencies and recent high-scoring matches from both teams. Gillingham's defensive struggles combined with Brighton U21's efficient offense create a scenario ripe for multiple goals. The 13.6% positive at 2.25 indicates this market offers good value. Player-level data, including key attackers like K. Doyle and Mark O’Mahony, further supports the likelihood of goals. No data limitations reduce in this assessment.

Model Chance58% model chance vs 44.4% implied (+13.6 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge58% model chance vs 44.4% implied (+13.6 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Over 2.5 Rates100% both teams
Strong positive
Player Goal ThreatsK. Doyle and Mark O’Mahony notable
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking match given Gillingham's defensive issues and Brighton U21's offensive efficiency. The data shows both sides frequently involved in high-scoring games, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling choice. Tactical openness and key goal threats on both teams underpin this selection.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and attacking dynamics

“The attacking profiles of both Gillingham and Brighton U21, combined with their recent goal-heavy matches, make Over 3.5 Goals a logical and data-backed pick for this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Gillingham and Brighton U21 both have 100% over 2.5 goals rate recently.

Gillingham conceded 4 goals in their last match, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.

The only previous meeting between these teams featured 5 goals, supporting a high-scoring trend.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • The single previous meeting between Gillingham and Brighton U21 featured 5 goals, indicating a history of open play and multiple scoring opportunities.
  • Recent matches for both teams also show a strong tendency towards over 2.5 goals, suggesting a continuation of this trend in the upcoming fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Gillingham1
Avg goals scored
Brighton U213
Gillingham4
Avg goals conceded
Brighton U210
Gillingham100%
BTTS rate
Brighton U210%
Gillingham100%
Over 2.5 goals
Brighton U21100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 58% vs implied 44% · edge +13.6 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 26%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams show contrasting BTTS trends: Gillingham have a 100% BTTS rate, while Brighton U21 have yet to concede recently, resulting in a 0% BTTS rate. However, the goal totals remain high on both sides, indicating that while Brighton U21 keep clean sheets, Gillingham's matches tend to be open and high scoring, supporting the Over 3.5 Goals angle.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 65% · edge +12.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Brighton U21 to WinBetUK guide price · model 38%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Brighton U21 Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Gillingham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Gillingham to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
The 58% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 44.4% implied by the current price (+13.6 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Gillingham and 100% for Brighton U21, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Gillingham

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
22 Sep 2026H Cambridge United1-4

Brighton U21

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
18 Aug 2026A Northampton3-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 60% · edge -0.3 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Brighton U21 to WinBetUK guide price · model 38%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Brighton U21 Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Gillingham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Gillingham to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Recent form data shows both teams consistently involved in high-scoring matches, with Gillingham scoring 1 and conceding 4 in their last game, and Brighton U21 scoring 3 without conceding. Both have a 100% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, reinforcing the expectation of an open, goal-rich encounter.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Gillingham Over 2.5
100%Brighton U21 Over 2.5
5H2H avg goals
The single previous meeting between Gillingham and Brighton U21 featured 5 goals, indicating a history of open play and multiple scoring opportunities. Recent matches for both teams also show a strong tendency towards over 2.5 goals, suggesting a continuation of this trend in the upcoming fixture.

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