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GIL Vicente crestGIL Vicente
v
Maritimo crestMaritimo

Primeira Liga | Sat 19 Sep, 15:30

GIL Vicente v Maritimo Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:46 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

GIL Vicente and Maritimo meet in a tightly contested Primeira Liga fixture where both teams have accumulated seven points, sitting 9th and 10th respectively. GIL Vicente's recent form shows a more balanced defensive record with fewer goals conceded, while Maritimo has struggled defensively, conceding over two goals per game. The match promises tactical discipline from GIL Vicente, aiming to leverage home advantage and defensive solidity against a Maritimo side that has shown attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities. This encounter is poised to be a close battle with GIL Vicente favored to edge the win based on their steadier form and defensive organization.

BT4Y best bet

GIL Vicente to Win

  • GIL Vicente has a 59.6% to win, showing clear value at 1.91 .
  • Maritimo concedes an average of 2.2 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.
  • GIL Vicente averages 13 shots per game with 3.8 on target, suggesting attacking pressure.
  • Recent form favors GIL Vicente with 7 points and a tighter defensive record than Maritimo.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors GIL Vicente to win due to their stronger defensive record and higher shot volume compared to Maritimo. Despite Maritimo's higher goals scored per game, their defensive weaknesses and lower recent points tally reduce their chances. GIL Vicente's ability to limit goals conceded and maintain offensive pressure creates a solid foundation for victory. The current at 1.91 offer positive value against the implied chance, making this a confident selection.

Model Win Probability59.6%
Strong positive
GIL Vicente Defensive Strength0.8 goals conceded per game
Positive
Maritimo Defensive Weakness2.2 goals conceded per game
Negative
Shot Volume Advantage13 shots per game for GIL Vicente vs 9.4 for Maritimo
Positive
Recent Points7 points each but GIL Vicente's defense is steadier
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

GIL Vicente's more consistent defensive performance and greater attacking activity make them the favored side in this matchup. Their ability to control the game tempo and limit Maritimo's chances should be decisive in securing the win. The data supports backing GIL Vicente with in this closely matched fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“GIL Vicente's balanced approach combining solid defense with active attacking play positions them well to capitalize on Maritimo's defensive vulnerabilities in this Primeira Liga clash.”

Key Data Signals

GIL Vicente to Win evidence

GIL Vicente has a 59.6% to win, showing clear value at 1.91 .

Maritimo concedes an average of 2.2 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.

GIL Vicente averages 13 shots per game with 3.8 on target, suggesting attacking pressure.

Recent form favors GIL Vicente with 7 points and a tighter defensive record than Maritimo.

What To Watch In The Data

GIL Vicente to Win notes

  • The last ten meetings between these teams average 2.3 goals per game, indicating moderate scoring.
  • GIL Vicente's low over 2.5 goals rate (20%) contrasts with Maritimo's 100%, suggesting a tactical battle where GIL Vicente aims to keep the game tight and controlled, limiting high-scoring outcomes.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

GIL Vicente0.8
Avg goals scored
Maritimo1.2
GIL Vicente0.8
Avg goals conceded
Maritimo2.2
GIL Vicente20%
BTTS rate
Maritimo80%
GIL Vicente20%
Over 2.5 goals
Maritimo100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 50% · edge +13.3 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 36%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Both teams to score is unlikely given GIL Vicente's strong defensive record conceding only 0.8 goals per game and their low BTTS rate of 20%. Maritimo's defensive struggles have not translated into consistent scoring against GIL Vicente, suggesting a controlled goals environment favoring a low-scoring outcome.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGIL Vicente to WinBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 52% · edge +7.2 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
GIL Vicente Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The for GIL Vicente to win at 1.91 reflect a positive value opportunity given the model's 59.6% win probability. The price is well aligned with the team's defensive solidity and offensive pressure, making this a price-sensitive but attractive selection without major warning flags.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

GIL Vicente3.6
Avg corners for
Maritimo3.2
GIL Vicente9
Avg total corners
Maritimo7.2
GIL Vicente2
Avg yellow cards
Maritimo2
GIL Vicente13
Avg shots
Maritimo9.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 43% vs implied 54% · edge -10.7 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
GIL Vicente averages more shots and corners than Maritimo, indicating territorial advantage and sustained pressure. Both teams have similar yellow card averages, suggesting a balanced fouling profile. The shot volume and corner superiority support GIL Vicente's attacking control in this fixture.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

GIL Vicente

LLDWW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 2L
13 Sep 2026A Benfica1-3
06 Sep 2026H Academico Viseu0-1
30 Aug 2026A Famalicao0-0
24 Aug 2026H Casa Pia2-0
09 Aug 2026H Rio Ave1-0

Maritimo

LLLDW
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 3L
14 Sep 2026A Moreirense1-3
05 Sep 2026H Benfica0-3
29 Aug 2026A Arouca1-2
22 Aug 2026H Academico Viseu2-2
16 Aug 2026A Famalicao2-1
Market aligned with main pickGIL Vicente to WinBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 52% · edge +7.2 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 85%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
GIL Vicente Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
GIL Vicente's recent form shows a more balanced performance with 7 points and a tighter defense conceding 0.8 goals per game. Maritimo's form is less convincing with the same points but a leaky defense conceding 2.2 goals per game. This contrast in defensive stability underpins GIL Vicente's favored status.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

6GIL Vicente wins
1Draws
3Maritimo wins
05 Mar 2023GIL Vicente v Maritimo2-0
11 Sep 2022Maritimo v GIL Vicente1-2
20 Mar 2022GIL Vicente v Maritimo1-1
31 Oct 2021Maritimo v GIL Vicente1-2
05 May 2021Maritimo v GIL Vicente0-1
17 Jan 2021GIL Vicente v Maritimo0-1
Market aligned with main pickGIL Vicente to WinBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 52% · edge +7.2 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The head-to-head record over ten matches shows an average of 2.3 goals per game, reflecting balanced encounters. While Maritimo tends to be involved in higher scoring games, GIL Vicente's defensive discipline in recent meetings has limited goal opportunities, providing a slight edge to GIL Vicente in controlling the match tempo and outcome.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Primeira Liga

GIL Vicente5
Played
Maritimo6
GIL Vicente0.8
Avg goals for
Maritimo1.2
GIL Vicente0.8
Avg goals against
Maritimo1.8
GIL Vicente3
Clean sheets
Maritimo1
Market aligned with main pickGIL Vicente to WinBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 52% · edge +7.2 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
GIL Vicente Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Over the season, GIL Vicente has maintained a solid defensive record and a higher average of shots per game, reflecting a controlled and effective playing style. Maritimo's higher goals conceded and lower shot volume highlight their defensive vulnerabilities and less consistent attacking threat, supporting GIL Vicente's edge.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
9GIL Vicente752120
10Maritimo76213-4
Both teams are closely placed in the league table, separated by goal difference rather than points, indicating a tight competition. The standings suggest a crucial fixture for both sides to consolidate mid-table positions, adding competitive intensity but not decisive pressure.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%GIL Vicente Over 2.5
100%Maritimo Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
The last ten meetings between these teams average 2.3 goals per game, indicating moderate scoring. GIL Vicente's low over 2.5 goals rate (20%) contrasts with Maritimo's 100%, suggesting a tactical battle where GIL Vicente aims to keep the game tight and controlled, limiting high-scoring outcomes.

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