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GIL Vicente crestGIL Vicente
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Casa Pia crestCasa Pia

Primeira Liga | Mon 24 Aug, 20:15

GIL Vicente v Casa Pia Stats

Data last updated: Wed 26 Aug 2026, 14:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Gil Vicente host Casa Pia in a tense Primeira Liga clash where survival and European ambitions collide. Gil Vicente, positioned just outside the European spots, face pressure to arrest a recent slump marked by one win in eight matches and defensive vulnerabilities. Casa Pia arrive struggling for goals and form, winless in seven away league games and scoring only twice in their last six outings. Both teams are expected to adopt cautious tactics, with Gil Vicente aiming to leverage home advantage and technical quality, while Casa Pia seek to contain and capitalize on rare chances in this high-stakes fixture.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

GIL Vicente Win & Under 2.5 Goals

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 59%, above the 51% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Gil Vicente have superior technical quality and home advantage despite recent form dip.
  • Casa Pia have scored only 2 goals in their last 6 matches and are winless in 7 away league games.
  • Last six meetings averaged just 1.33 goals, indicating a low-scoring, tight contest.
  • Gil Vicente’s Murilo de Souza is a key attacking threat, often opening scoring.
Price warning

GIL Vicente Win & Under 2.5 Goals is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 59% while the model sits nearer 51% (-7.5 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: GIL Vicente to Win shows a +15 pts edge at 1.7.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model rates Gil Vicente Win & Under 2.5 Goals highly with a 51.3% chance, reflecting their home advantage and technical edge over a Casa Pia side struggling offensively. The 5/1 offer strong value given the low-scoring history between these teams and Casa Pia’s poor away form. Defensive lapses on both sides suggest a close game, but Gil Vicente’s need for points and attacking focal point Murilo de Souza support a narrow home victory under 2.5 goals. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Chance51.3%
Strong positive
Implied Probability16.7%
Strong positive
Value Edge34.6%
Strong positive
Confidence Level81
Strong positive
Historical Goals Average1.33 goals per match
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Gil Vicente’s technical superiority and home advantage make them the likely winners in a match where both sides are cautious due to high stakes. Casa Pia’s attacking struggles and poor away record reinforce the expectation of a narrow Gil Vicente victory with limited goals, fitting the tactical and form context of this fixture.

Main risk

The concern is that the broader trend does little to soften those results.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and tactical context

“Gil Vicente’s need to secure points combined with Casa Pia’s attacking drought sets the stage for a tight, low-scoring game where the home side’s quality should prevail.”

Key Data Signals

GIL Vicente Win & Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Gil Vicente have superior technical quality and home advantage despite recent form dip.

Casa Pia have scored only 2 goals in their last 6 matches and are winless in 7 away league games.

Last six meetings averaged just 1.33 goals, indicating a low-scoring, tight contest.

Gil Vicente’s Murilo de Souza is a key attacking threat, often opening scoring.

What To Watch In The Data

GIL Vicente Win & Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last nine head-to-head matches between these teams have averaged 1.67 goals, indicating a trend toward low-scoring encounters.
  • This trend, combined with recent form and tactical caution, suggests a slow tempo and limited goal opportunities, aligning with the expectation of under 2.5 goals in this fixture.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

GIL Vicente5
Avg corners for
Casa Pia3.5
GIL Vicente7
Avg total corners
Casa Pia6
GIL Vicente2
Avg yellow cards
Casa Pia2.5
GIL Vicente13
Avg shots
Casa Pia6
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 29%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 35%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Gil Vicente average 5 corners and 12 shots per game, indicating moderate attacking pressure, while Casa Pia average fewer corners (3.5) and shots (6), reflecting their subdued offense. Casa Pia’s higher yellow card average (2.5) versus Gil Vicente’s (1) suggests Casa Pia may commit more fouls under pressure, potentially disrupting flow but not necessarily increasing goal chances.

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Useful next reads

Primeira Liga hubGIL Vicente v Casa Pia predictionfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

GIL Vicente1
Avg goals scored
Casa Pia0
GIL Vicente0
Avg goals conceded
Casa Pia4
GIL Vicente0%
BTTS rate
Casa Pia0%
GIL Vicente0%
Over 2.5 goals
Casa Pia50%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 60% · edge +8.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 33%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have shown limited attacking output recently, with Casa Pia scoring only twice in six matches and Gil Vicente failing to score in their last game. The last six meetings averaged just 1.33 goals, supporting a low-scoring match with BTTS unlikely. Defensive caution and survival stakes suggest under 3.5 goals and BTTS No are plausible outcomes.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGIL Vicente to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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GIL Vicente Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 33%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 35%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
The 5/1 on Gil Vicente Win & Under 2.5 Goals represent significant value compared to the model’s 51.3% chance, reflecting market underestimation of Gil Vicente’s home advantage and Casa Pia’s offensive struggles. This price is attractive given the historical low-scoring nature of this fixture and the tactical caution expected from both sides.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

GIL Vicente

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
09 Aug 2026H Rio Ave1-0

Casa Pia

LL
Last 50W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 2L
17 Aug 2026H Benfica0-7
08 Aug 2026A Maritimo0-1
Market aligned with main pickGIL Vicente to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
GIL Vicente Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Gil Vicente’s recent form shows a single win in eight matches, highlighting a dip that could affect , yet they maintain a clean sheet in their last game, suggesting defensive resilience. Casa Pia’s form is poor, with no wins and only two goals in six matches, underscoring their attacking bluntness and away struggles, reinforcing Gil Vicente’s advantage in this matchup.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4GIL Vicente wins
4Draws
1Casa Pia wins
27 Apr 2026GIL Vicente v Casa Pia2-1
13 Dec 2025Casa Pia v GIL Vicente1-1
22 Feb 2025Casa Pia v GIL Vicente1-0
22 Sep 2024GIL Vicente v Casa Pia1-1
03 Mar 2024Casa Pia v GIL Vicente0-0
02 Oct 2023GIL Vicente v Casa Pia2-0
Market aligned with main pickGIL Vicente to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 33%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Recent meetings between Gil Vicente and Casa Pia have been tightly contested, with just eight goals across six matches averaging 1.33 goals per game. This low-scoring history reflects tactical caution and defensive discipline from both sides, supporting the expectation of a narrow Gil Vicente win with limited goals in this match.
Season team stats

Primeira Liga

GIL Vicente2
Played
Casa Pia3
GIL Vicente1.5
Avg goals for
Casa Pia0
GIL Vicente0
Avg goals against
Casa Pia3.3
GIL Vicente2
Clean sheets
Casa Pia0
Market aligned with main pickGIL Vicente to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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GIL Vicente Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Over the season, Gil Vicente have demonstrated consistent performance with 12 wins and a solid points tally, reflecting technical quality and competitiveness. Casa Pia’s low goal output and defensive issues have persisted, with their 16th place standing emphasizing struggles. These season-long trends support a Gil Vicente win with limited goals given Casa Pia’s inability to score freely.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5GIL Vicente622003
18Casa Pia03003-10
Gil Vicente’s 8th place position and 3 points from their last match reflect a team fighting for European qualification, adding motivation. Casa Pia’s 18th place and zero points from their last game highlight relegation danger, which may induce cautious play. The standings set a backdrop of contrasting stakes influencing tactical approaches and match intensity.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%GIL Vicente Over 2.5
50%Casa Pia Over 2.5
1.67H2H avg goals
The last nine head-to-head matches between these teams have averaged 1.67 goals, indicating a trend toward low-scoring encounters. This trend, combined with recent form and tactical caution, suggests a slow tempo and limited goal opportunities, aligning with the expectation of under 2.5 goals in this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

GIL Vicente v Casa Pia prediction

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