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GIL Vicente crestGIL Vicente
v
Casa Pia crestCasa Pia

Primeira Liga | Mon 24 Aug, 20:15

GIL Vicente v Casa Pia Stats

Data last updated: Thu 08 Oct 2026, 22:12 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

GIL Vicente face Casa Pia in Primeira Liga on Mon 24 Aug, 20:15. Gil Vicente have won six of their last 10 home league matches, giving their encouraging start a stronger foundation than one opening-day result alone.

BT4Y match pick

Issue after failing to score in either league fixture

  • At 7/10, Issue after failing to score in either league fixture implies roughly 59%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 57%.
  • Their home record strengthens the picture.
  • GIL Vicente have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Casa Pia.
  • GIL Vicente have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Issue after failing to score in either league fixture angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • GIL Vicente sit 9 in the table, while Casa Pia sit 17, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 57% for Issue after failing to score in either league fixture sits against roughly 59% implied by the current price. GIL Vicente have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Casa Pia. Their home record strengthens the picture.

Model chance vs price57% model chance against roughly 59% implied
Neutral
GIL Vicente have the stronger recent points return, taking 3.Visible data support
Positive
GIL Vicente have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Their home record strengthens the picture.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: GIL Vicente Win is the preferred angle because their home record strengthens the picture. GIL Vicente have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Casa Pia. The concern is that the broader trend does little to soften those results.

Main risk

The concern is that the broader trend does little to soften those results.

Key Data Signals

Issue after failing to score in either league fixture evidence

Their home record strengthens the picture.

GIL Vicente have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Casa Pia.

GIL Vicente have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the GIL Vicente Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

GIL Vicente sit 9 in the table, while Casa Pia sit 17, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Issue after failing to score in either league fixture notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    GIL Vicente1
    Avg goals scored
    Casa Pia0
    GIL Vicente0
    Avg goals conceded
    Casa Pia4
    GIL Vicente0%
    BTTS rate
    Casa Pia0%
    GIL Vicente0%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Casa Pia50%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 60% · edge +8.1 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
    1.6
    Check odds @ 1.6
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
    4.33
    Check odds @ 4.33
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 33%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Primeira Liga hubGIL Vicente v Casa Pia predictionfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickGIL Vicente to WinBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 59% · edge -1.7 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    GIL Vicente Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
    1.32
    Check odds @ 1.32
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 33%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 35%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    GIL Vicente to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    GIL Vicente

    W
    Last 51W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 0L
    09 Aug 2026H Rio Ave1-0

    Casa Pia

    LL
    Last 50W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 2L
    17 Aug 2026H Benfica0-7
    08 Aug 2026A Maritimo0-1
    Market aligned with main pickGIL Vicente to WinBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 59% · edge -1.7 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 82%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    GIL Vicente Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
    1.32
    Check odds @ 1.32
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    0%GIL Vicente Over 2.5
    50%Casa Pia Over 2.5
    1.67H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: GIL Vicente sit at 0% and Casa Pia sit at 50% with the H2H average at 1.67 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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