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GIL Vicente crestGIL Vicente
v
Casa Pia crestCasa Pia

Primeira Liga | Mon 27 Apr, 20:15

GIL Vicente v Casa Pia Stats

Data last updated: Sun 26 Apr 2026, 11:14 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

GIL Vicente face Casa Pia in Primeira Liga on Mon 27 Apr, 20:15. Casa Pia are struggling significantly for goals, managing just two in their last six matches, while failing to win in seven away league outings. Offensive Output: Recent Scoring Form Historical Tempo: Head-to-Head Scoring

BT4Y best bet

Rationale: Gil Vicente to Win Gil Vicente come into this match with the clear technical advantage, sitting in 6th place with 46 points

  • At 8/15, GIL Vicente Win implies roughly 65%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 66%.
  • Gil Vicente enjoy home advantage and possess superior technical quality despite a recent slump.
  • GIL Vicente have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 2 for Casa Pia.
  • GIL Vicente have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the GIL Vicente Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • GIL Vicente sit 6 in the table, while Casa Pia sit 16, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 66% for GIL Vicente Win sits against roughly 65% implied by the current price. GIL Vicente have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 2 for Casa Pia. Gil Vicente enjoy home advantage and possess superior technical quality despite a recent slump.

Model chance vs price66% model chance against roughly 65% implied
Neutral
GIL Vicente have the stronger recent points return, taking 5.Visible data support
Positive
GIL Vicente have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Gil Vicente enjoy home advantage and possess superior technical.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: GIL Vicente Win is the preferred angle because gil Vicente enjoy home advantage and possess superior technical quality despite a recent slump. GIL Vicente have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 2 for Casa Pia. Murilo de Souza stands out as the focal point, not just as the top scorer with nine goals, but as a player who often sets the tone — six of his strikes.

Main risk

Murilo de Souza stands out as the focal point, not just as the top scorer with nine goals, but as a player who often sets the tone — six of his strikes.

Key Data Signals

GIL Vicente Win evidence

Gil Vicente enjoy home advantage and possess superior technical quality despite a recent slump.

GIL Vicente have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 2 for Casa Pia.

GIL Vicente have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the GIL Vicente Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

GIL Vicente sit 6 in the table, while Casa Pia sit 16, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

GIL Vicente Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    GIL Vicente5.4
    Avg corners for
    Casa Pia4.6
    GIL Vicente9.8
    Avg total corners
    Casa Pia12.2
    GIL Vicente2.2
    Avg yellow cards
    Casa Pia1.6
    GIL Vicente12
    Avg shots
    Casa Pia9.6
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 60% · edge +9.1 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    GIL Vicente1.4
    Avg goals scored
    Casa Pia0.4
    GIL Vicente1.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Casa Pia1.8
    GIL Vicente40%
    BTTS rate
    Casa Pia40%
    GIL Vicente60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Casa Pia40%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 27% · edge +30 pts
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 57%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 29%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickGIL Vicente to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 61% · edge +5.6 pts
    1.65
    Check odds @ 1.65
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    GIL Vicente Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 74%
    1.35
    Check odds @ 1.35
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    GIL Vicente to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    GIL Vicente

    LDWLD
    Last 51W 2D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 3D 4L
    18 Apr 2026H Guimaraes0-1
    13 Apr 2026A Tondela2-2
    03 Apr 2026H AVS3-0
    21 Mar 2026A Santa Clara0-1
    14 Mar 2026H Alverca2-2

    Casa Pia

    LDLDL
    Last 50W 2D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 5D 4L
    23 Apr 2026H SC Braga0-1
    18 Apr 2026H Santa Clara0-0
    12 Apr 2026A Alverca1-3
    06 Apr 2026H Benfica1-1
    20 Mar 2026A Estrela0-4
    Market aligned with main pickGIL Vicente to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 61% · edge +5.6 pts
    1.65
    Check odds @ 1.65
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
    1.12
    Check odds @ 1.12
    GIL Vicente Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 74%
    1.35
    Check odds @ 1.35
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    3GIL Vicente wins
    4Draws
    1Casa Pia wins
    13 Dec 2025Casa Pia v GIL Vicente1-1
    22 Feb 2025Casa Pia v GIL Vicente1-0
    22 Sep 2024GIL Vicente v Casa Pia1-1
    03 Mar 2024Casa Pia v GIL Vicente0-0
    02 Oct 2023GIL Vicente v Casa Pia2-0
    27 May 2023GIL Vicente v Casa Pia1-0
    Market aligned with main pickGIL Vicente to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 61% · edge +5.6 pts
    1.65
    Check odds @ 1.65
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    The head-to-head sample gives context for GIL Vicente to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Primeira Liga

    GIL Vicente34
    Played
    Casa Pia36
    GIL Vicente1.4
    Avg goals for
    Casa Pia0.9
    GIL Vicente1.1
    Avg goals against
    Casa Pia1.6
    GIL Vicente12
    Clean sheets
    Casa Pia9
    Market aligned with main pickGIL Vicente to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 61% · edge +5.6 pts
    1.65
    Check odds @ 1.65
    Load more odds for this section
    GIL Vicente Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 74%
    1.35
    Check odds @ 1.35
    Season data supports GIL Vicente to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    6GIL Vicente50341311109
    16Casa Pia303461216-26
    GIL Vicente sit in position 6, while Casa Pia sit in position 16, so table pressure belongs in the GIL Vicente Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%GIL Vicente Over 2.5
    40%Casa Pia Over 2.5
    1.5H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: GIL Vicente sit at 60% and Casa Pia sit at 40% with the H2H average at 1.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    GIL Vicente v Casa Pia prediction

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    Betting context

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