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Genoa crestGenoa
v
Como crestComo

Serie A | Sun 26 Apr, 14:00

Genoa v Como Stats

Data last updated: Tue 14 Jul 2026, 04:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Genoa face Como in Serie A on Sun 26 Apr, 14:00. Genoa have lost every home fixture against top-five opposition this season, suggesting that Como’s high-calibre squad, featuring Nico Paz, will ultimately overwhelm the hosts' structure at the Ferraris.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Ing one of three outcomes: a home win, an away win, or a draw

  • At 8/11, Genoa Win implies roughly 58%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 45%.
  • Como average 2.25 goals against bottom-half sides, but their elite away defence concedes only 0.43 per game.
  • Genoa have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 7 for Como.
  • Genoa have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Genoa Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Genoa sit 16 in the table, while Como sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

Ing one of three outcomes: a home win, an away win, or a draw is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 58% while the model sits nearer 45% (-13.1 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +36.6 pts edge at 3.75.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 45% for Genoa Win sits against roughly 58% implied by the current price. Genoa have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 7 for Como. Como average that scoring level against bottom-half sides, but their elite away defence concedes only 0.43 per game.

Model chance vs price45% model chance against roughly 58% implied
Negative
Genoa have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points.Visible data support
Positive
Genoa have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Como average 2.25 goals against bottom-half sides, but their.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Genoa Win is the preferred angle because como average that scoring level against bottom-half sides, but their elite away defence concedes only 0.43 per game. Genoa have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 7 for Como. Not the loud, title-deciding drama of the very top, nor the desperation of a relegation scrap — but a match shaped by emotion, shifting momentum, and fragile ambition.

Main risk

Not the loud, title-deciding drama of the very top, nor the desperation of a relegation scrap — but a match shaped by emotion, shifting momentum, and fragile ambition.

Key Data Signals

Genoa Win evidence

Como average 2.25 goals against bottom-half sides, but their elite away defence concedes only 0.43 per game.

Genoa have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 7 for Como.

Genoa have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Genoa Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Genoa sit 16 in the table, while Como sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Genoa Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Genoa4.8
    Avg corners for
    Como5
    Genoa8.4
    Avg total corners
    Como7.8
    Genoa1.2
    Avg yellow cards
    Como2.2
    Genoa13.6
    Avg shots
    Como16.8
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetUK guide price · Model 53% vs implied 48% · edge +5.5 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
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    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 43%
    1.92
    Check odds @ 1.92
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Serie A hubrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Genoa1.2
    Avg goals scored
    Como2.2
    Genoa1.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Como1.4
    Genoa40%
    BTTS rate
    Como60%
    Genoa40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Como80%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 27% · edge +36.6 pts
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
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    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 39%
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 41%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickGenoa to WinBetUK guide price · Model 45% vs implied 21% · edge +23.7 pts
    4.75
    Check odds @ 4.75
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Genoa Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 55%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 43%
    1.92
    Check odds @ 1.92
    Genoa to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Genoa

    WWLLW
    Last 53W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 1D 4L
    19 Apr 2026A Pisa2-1
    12 Apr 2026H Sassuolo2-1
    06 Apr 2026A Juventus0-2
    20 Mar 2026H Udinese0-2
    15 Mar 2026A Hellas Verona2-0

    Como

    LLDWW
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 2D 3L
    17 Apr 2026A Sassuolo1-2
    12 Apr 2026H Inter3-4
    06 Apr 2026A Udinese0-0
    22 Mar 2026H Pisa5-0
    15 Mar 2026H AS Roma2-1
    Market aligned with main pickGenoa to WinBetUK guide price · Model 45% vs implied 21% · edge +23.7 pts
    4.75
    Check odds @ 4.75
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    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 74%
    2.11
    Check odds @ 2.11
    Genoa Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 55%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Genoa wins
    4Draws
    1Como wins
    15 Sep 2025Como v Genoa1-1
    27 Apr 2025Como v Genoa1-0
    07 Nov 2024Genoa v Como1-1
    10 Apr 2023como v Genoa2-2
    13 Nov 2022Genoa v como1-1
    Market aligned with main pickGenoa to WinBetUK guide price · Model 45% vs implied 21% · edge +23.7 pts
    4.75
    Check odds @ 4.75
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Genoa to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Serie A

    Genoa38
    Played
    Como38
    Genoa1.1
    Avg goals for
    Como1.7
    Genoa1.3
    Avg goals against
    Como0.8
    Genoa9
    Clean sheets
    Como19
    Market aligned with main pickGenoa to WinBetUK guide price · Model 45% vs implied 21% · edge +23.7 pts
    4.75
    Check odds @ 4.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Genoa Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 55%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Season data supports Genoa to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    4Como71382011736
    16Genoa4138101117-10
    Genoa sit in position 16, while Como sit in position 4, so table pressure belongs in the Genoa Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Genoa Over 2.5
    80%Como Over 2.5
    2.2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Genoa sit at 40% and Como sit at 80% with the H2H average at 2.2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Genoa v Como prediction

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    Betting context

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