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Gateshead crestGateshead
v
Altrincham crestAltrincham

National League | Tue 29 Sep, 19:45

Gateshead v Altrincham Stats

Data last updated: Mon 28 Sep 2026, 08:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Gateshead host Altrincham in a National League clash where contrasting recent form and attacking profiles set the stage for an open encounter. Gateshead have struggled defensively, conceding over three goals per game on average, while Altrincham boast a potent attack with two goals per game and a perfect record of matches exceeding 2.5 goals. With Gateshead seeking to arrest a poor run and Altrincham pushing to maintain their top-table momentum, the fixture promises attacking intent and goal-scoring opportunities at both ends.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Altrincham have a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, showing consistent high-scoring matches.
  • Gateshead concede an average of 3.2 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
  • The last 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3 goals per game, supporting a goal-rich fixture.
  • Gateshead have a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate, suggesting openness in their matches.
  • Altrincham's strong recent form with 12 points contrasts with Gateshead's single point, hinting at attacking control.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 2.5 Goals as a strong selection with a 72.3% chance, well above the implied market probability of 61.7%, yielding a positive of 10.6%. Altrincham's attacking efficiency combined with Gateshead's defensive frailties underpin this projection. The historical head-to-head average of 3 goals per match and both teams' tendency for open games reinforce the likelihood of multiple goals. No data limitations affect , making this a robust football read for Over 2.5 Goals.

Model Chance72.3% model chance vs 62.5% implied (+9.8 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance72.3% model chance vs 62.5% implied (+9.8 pts)
Neutral
Value Edge72.3% model chance vs 62.5% implied (+9.8 pts)
Strong positive
Altrincham Attack2 goals per game, 100% Over 2.5 rate
Strong positive
Gateshead Defense3.2 goals conceded per game
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with Altrincham's attacking prowess likely to challenge Gateshead's porous defense. The statistical trends and recent form data point towards multiple goals, making Over 2.5 Goals a tactically and data-supported choice for this National League fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Over 2.5 Goals

“Altrincham's consistent goal-scoring and Gateshead's defensive struggles create a compelling case for a high-scoring match. The data strongly favors Over 2.5 Goals as both teams have shown vulnerability and attacking intent.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Altrincham have a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, showing consistent high-scoring matches.

Gateshead concede an average of 3.2 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.

The last 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3 goals per game, supporting a goal-rich fixture.

Gateshead have a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate, suggesting openness in their matches.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last 10 head-to-head matches between these teams have averaged 3 goals per game, reinforcing a trend of open, attacking encounters.
  • This historical trend combined with current form and season stats suggests Over 2.5 Goals is a strong trend-based angle for this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Gateshead0.4
Avg goals scored
Altrincham2
Gateshead3.2
Avg goals conceded
Altrincham1.6
Gateshead40%
BTTS rate
Altrincham80%
Gateshead60%
Over 2.5 goals
Altrincham100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 72% vs implied 63% · edge +9.8 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Both teams show strong tendencies for goals and BTTS. Altrincham's 100% Over 2.5 rate and 80% BTTS rate combined with Gateshead's 60% Over 2.5 and 40% BTTS rates indicate a high probability of goals from both sides, supporting an open, attacking game with multiple scoring opportunities.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 72% vs implied 63% · edge +9.8 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Altrincham to WinBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Altrincham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Gateshead Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Gateshead to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
The 72.3% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 62.5% implied by the current price (+9.8 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Gateshead and 100% for Altrincham, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Gateshead

LLLLD
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 8L
26 Sep 2026A Wealdstone0-4
19 Sep 2026H Southend1-6
16 Sep 2026A Kidderminster Harriers0-1
12 Sep 2026A Forest Green0-4
05 Sep 2026H Solihull Moors1-1

Altrincham

WWWLW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 0D 4L
26 Sep 2026H AFC Hornchurch3-0
19 Sep 2026A AFC Fylde2-1
16 Sep 2026H Hartlepool2-1
12 Sep 2026A Woking1-5
04 Sep 2026H Eastleigh2-1
Best odds for this sectionAltrincham to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 60% · edge +10.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Altrincham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Gateshead Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 48%
2
Check odds @ 2
Gateshead to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Recent form heavily favors Altrincham, who have accumulated 12 points with a strong goal-scoring record, while Gateshead have just 1 point and a poor defensive record. This contrast suggests Altrincham will push the tempo and create numerous chances, increasing the likelihood of Over 2.5 Goals.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Gateshead Over 2.5
100%Altrincham Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
The last 10 head-to-head matches between these teams have averaged 3 goals per game, reinforcing a trend of open, attacking encounters. This historical trend combined with current form and season stats suggests Over 2.5 Goals is a strong trend-based angle for this fixture.

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