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FSV Mainz 05 crestFSV Mainz 05
v
Bayer Leverkusen crestBayer Leverkusen

Bundesliga | Sat 10 Oct, 14:30

FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen Stats

Data last updated: Fri 09 Oct 2026, 07:52 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen meet in a Bundesliga clash where both teams have shown attacking intent early in the season. Mainz sits 6th and Leverkusen 5th, each with 7 points, reflecting competitive form. Both sides average 2.5 goals scored per game and have a 75% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating potential for a high-scoring encounter. Leverkusen's offensive firepower and Mainz's willingness to engage in open play set the stage for an open, goal-rich game with tactical emphasis on quick transitions and offensive pressure.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Both teams average 2.5 goals scored per game this season, signaling strong attacking output.
  • 75% of matches for both Mainz and Leverkusen have gone over 2.5 goals, showing a trend for high-scoring games.
  • Leverkusen averages 22.5 shots per game with 6.25 on target, indicating sustained offensive pressure.
  • Mainz averages 18.25 shots per game and 6 corners, suggesting active attacking phases and set-piece opportunities.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 56.9% chance for Over 3.5 Goals, supported by both teams' high scoring rates and offensive statistics. The 9.3% at of 2.1 reflects a favorable price for a goal-heavy game. Both sides demonstrate strong shot volumes and goal involvement from key attackers, reinforcing the likelihood of multiple goals. No data limitations affect , making this a solid selection for bettors seeking an exciting, open match.

Model Probability56.9% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+9.3 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge56.9% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+9.3 pts)
Strong positive
Team Scoring RatesBoth teams average 2.5 goals per game
Strong positive
Shot VolumeLeverkusen 22.5 shots/game, Mainz 18.25 shots/game
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking match given both teams' strong offensive form and high shot volumes. The goal-scoring capabilities of Leverkusen and Mainz suggest Over 3.5 Goals is a plausible outcome, supported by their recent scoring trends and aggressive play styles.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and attacking dynamics

“This fixture features two sides with potent attacks and a tendency for open play, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling prospect. The statistical indicators align well with an entertaining, high-scoring game.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Both teams average 2.5 goals scored per game this season, signaling strong attacking output.

75% of matches for both Mainz and Leverkusen have gone over 2.5 goals, showing a trend for high-scoring games.

Leverkusen averages 22.5 shots per game with 6.25 on target, indicating sustained offensive pressure.

Mainz averages 18.25 shots per game and 6 corners, suggesting active attacking phases and set-piece opportunities.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 3.4 per game, aligning with the expectation for a high-scoring match.
  • This trend, combined with recent form, suggests a tempo and openness conducive to multiple goals, reinforcing the Over 2.5 Goals trend in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

FSV Mainz 052.5
Avg goals scored
Bayer Leverkusen2.5
FSV Mainz 051.5
Avg goals conceded
Bayer Leverkusen1.25
FSV Mainz 0550%
BTTS rate
Bayer Leverkusen50%
FSV Mainz 0575%
Over 2.5 goals
Bayer Leverkusen75%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 48% · edge +9.3 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 29%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Both teams have a 75% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, and their average goals per game stand at 2.5 each. BTTS rates at 50% suggest that while both sides score regularly, there is also a balanced defensive effort. This combination supports a scenario where multiple goals are expected but not necessarily from both teams every time.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 67% · edge +8.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
FSV Mainz 05 Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
FSV Mainz 05 to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
DrawBetUK guide price · model 30%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Bayer Leverkusen Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
The 56.9% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (+9.3 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 75% for FSV Mainz 05 and 75% for Bayer Leverkusen, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

FSV Mainz 05

WLWD
Last 52W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 1L
19 Sep 2026A Borussia Mönchengladbach4-3
12 Sep 2026H Eintracht Frankfurt1-3
06 Sep 2026A Hamburger SV5-0
29 Aug 2026H SC Paderborn 070-0

Bayer Leverkusen

WDWL
Last 52W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 1L
20 Sep 2026H RB Leipzig2-0
12 Sep 2026A FC Augsburg2-2
05 Sep 2026H Union Berlin4-0
29 Aug 2026A SV Elversberg2-3
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 60% · edge +11.5 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
FSV Mainz 05 Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
FSV Mainz 05 to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%
3
Check odds @ 3
DrawBetUK guide price · model 30%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Bayer Leverkusen Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Bayer Leverkusen to WinBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Recent form data shows both teams scoring at a rate of 2.5 goals per game and a 75% over 2.5 goals match rate, highlighting their offensive consistency. This trend suggests that the match is likely to continue the pattern of high-scoring encounters seen in their recent fixtures.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

75%FSV Mainz 05 Over 2.5
75%Bayer Leverkusen Over 2.5
3.4H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 3.4 per game, aligning with the expectation for a high-scoring match. This trend, combined with recent form, suggests a tempo and openness conducive to multiple goals, reinforcing the Over 2.5 Goals trend in this fixture.

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