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Folgore Caratese crestFolgore Caratese
v
Desenzano Calvina crestDesenzano Calvina

Serie C - Girone A | Sat 03 Oct, 19:30

Folgore Caratese v Desenzano Calvina Stats

Data last updated: Fri 02 Oct 2026, 10:42 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Folgore Caratese and Desenzano Calvina meet in Serie C Girone A with both sides showing cautious attacking output this season. Folgore Caratese has scored just 1 goal in recent matches while Desenzano Calvina averages 0.6 goals per game, reflecting a low-scoring pattern. Both teams have conceded around one goal per match, suggesting defensive solidity but limited offensive threat. The stakes are moderate with both sides mid-lower table, and tactical setups likely to prioritize defensive organization over open attacking play, setting the stage for a tight contest under 2.5 goals.

BT4Y match pick

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams average around 1 goal conceded per game, indicating defensive resilience.
  • Folgore Caratese scores 1 goal per recent matches; Desenzano Calvina scores 0.6, showing limited firepower.
  • Both teams have a 40% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, suggesting under 2.5 is more common.
  • Recent form shows Folgore Caratese with 5 points and Desenzano Calvina with 5 points, reflecting balanced, low-scoring encounters.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model estimates a 61.8% chance for under 2.5 goals, reflecting the low scoring rates and defensive solidity of both Folgore Caratese and Desenzano Calvina. Both teams have modest attacking returns and concede roughly one goal per game, supporting a low-scoring outcome. The slightly short price at 1.6 suggests cautious staking, but the tactical context and recent form data align well with a tight match unlikely to produce many goals. No data limitations affect in this prediction.

Model Chance61.8% model chance vs 62.5% implied (-0.7 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Goals Scored1.0 (Folgore), 0.6 (Desenzano)
Positive
Goals Conceded1.2 (Folgore), 1.0 (Desenzano)
Positive
Over 2.5 Rate40% both teams
Positive
Price Sensitivity61.8% model chance vs 62.5% implied (-0.7 pts)
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a tactical, low-tempo Serie C clash where both Folgore Caratese and Desenzano Calvina prioritize defensive stability over aggressive offense. The limited goal-scoring form and balanced recent results suggest a match unlikely to exceed two goals, making under 2.5 goals a sensible selection based on both tactical reasoning and statistical trends.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match tactical and statistical analysis

“This fixture looks set for a tight, low-scoring battle given both teams' cautious attacking records and defensive focus. The data clearly points to a match where goals will be at a premium, reinforcing the under 2.5 goals angle.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams average around 1 goal conceded per game, indicating defensive resilience.

Folgore Caratese scores 1 goal per recent matches; Desenzano Calvina scores 0.6, showing limited firepower.

Recent form shows Folgore Caratese with 5 points and Desenzano Calvina with 5 points, reflecting balanced, low-scoring encounters.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last eight head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2, indicating a trend toward matches with fewer goals.
  • This trend, combined with the teams' recent low scoring form, suggests a controlled tempo and limited goal-scoring chances, favoring under 2.5 goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Folgore Caratese1
Avg goals scored
Desenzano Calvina0.6
Folgore Caratese1.2
Avg goals conceded
Desenzano Calvina1
Folgore Caratese60%
BTTS rate
Desenzano Calvina40%
Folgore Caratese40%
Over 2.5 goals
Desenzano Calvina40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 63% · edge -0.7 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 24%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Both teams have low scoring averages and moderate BTTS rates, with Folgore Caratese at 60% BTTS and Desenzano Calvina at 40%. The average goals per match in their recent encounters is around 2, supporting a low-scoring game with occasional goals but not an open, high-scoring affair.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Folgore Caratese

WDDLL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 3L
26 Sep 2026A Lumezzane2-1
20 Sep 2026H Giana Erminio1-1
17 Sep 2026A Pergolettese0-0
13 Sep 2026H Alcione2-3
07 Sep 2026A PRO Vercelli0-1

Desenzano Calvina

DDLWL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 4D 2L
26 Sep 2026H Juventus U230-0
21 Sep 2026A Treviso0-0
17 Sep 2026H Lecco1-3
13 Sep 2026A Arzignano Valchiampo2-1
06 Sep 2026A Union Brescia0-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 65% · edge +3.9 pts
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Desenzano Calvina to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
3
Check odds @ 3
Desenzano Calvina Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Folgore Caratese Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Folgore Caratese to WinBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
3
Check odds @ 3
Recent form shows both teams earning 5 points with low goals scored and conceded, reflecting tight matches with limited goal-scoring opportunities. This trend supports the under 2.5 goals pick as both sides have struggled to produce or concede multiple goals in recent outings.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 50% · edge +6.7 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Desenzano Calvina to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
3
Check odds @ 3
Desenzano Calvina Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Folgore Caratese Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Folgore Caratese to WinBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
3
Check odds @ 3
The 61.8% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 62.5% implied by the current price (-0.7 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Folgore Caratese and 40% for Desenzano Calvina, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Folgore Caratese Over 2.5
40%Desenzano Calvina Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
In the last eight head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2, indicating a trend toward matches with fewer goals. This trend, combined with the teams' recent low scoring form, suggests a controlled tempo and limited goal-scoring chances, favoring under 2.5 goals.

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