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Foggia crestFoggia
v
Sorrento crestSorrento

Serie C - Girone C | Sun 27 Sep, 19:30

Foggia v Sorrento Stats

Data last updated: Sat 26 Sep 2026, 08:03 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie C - Girone C clash features Sorrento visiting Foggia, with Sorrento leading the table and showing strong recent form. Sorrento has accumulated 12 points from recent matches, scoring 1.6 goals per game while conceding 0.8, indicating a balanced and effective side. Foggia, in contrast, has struggled with just 2 points and a lower scoring rate of 0.6 goals per game, conceding 1.4 on average. The tactical setup suggests Sorrento's superior defensive solidity and attacking efficiency could dominate, making them clear favorites despite the away venue.

BT4Y best bet

Sorrento to Win

  • Sorrento leads Serie C - Girone C standings with 15 points, Foggia sits 16th with 5 points.
  • Sorrento averages 1.6 goals scored and concedes only 0.8 per game, showing strong defense and attack.
  • Foggia has scored just 0.6 goals per game and conceded 1.4, indicating offensive struggles and defensive vulnerability.
  • Both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, but Sorrento's form and table position suggest better control.
  • Sorrento's recent form includes 12 points from last matches, highlighting momentum advantage.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Sorrento to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior recent form, goal-scoring efficiency, and defensive record compared to Foggia. The at 3.2 offer strong value given the implied chance is only 31.3%. Sorrento's consistency at the top of the table and Foggia's struggles in attack and defense underpin this . No data limitations affect the assessment, making this a solid value bet with standard staking recommended.

Model Chance46.3% model chance vs 31.3% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance46.3% model chance vs 31.3% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge46.3% model chance vs 31.3% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormSorrento strong, Foggia weak
Strong positive
Defensive RecordSorrento concedes less
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Sorrento's tactical discipline and superior recent form make them the clear pick to win this fixture. Their ability to control games and limit opponents' scoring opportunities is evident in their defensive stats, while Foggia's offensive struggles reduce their threat level. This combination supports backing Sorrento for the victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Sorrento's blend of defensive resilience and efficient attack positions them well to secure victory against a struggling Foggia side. Their consistency and form create a compelling case for the away win.”

Key Data Signals

Sorrento to Win evidence

Sorrento leads Serie C - Girone C standings with 15 points, Foggia sits 16th with 5 points.

Sorrento averages 1.6 goals scored and concedes only 0.8 per game, showing strong defense and attack.

Foggia has scored just 0.6 goals per game and conceded 1.4, indicating offensive struggles and defensive vulnerability.

Both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, but Sorrento's form and table position suggest better control.

What To Watch In The Data

Sorrento to Win notes

  • In the last eight head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.63, indicating moderately open games with goal opportunities.
  • This trend suggests a reasonable tempo and chance quality, supporting the potential for goals but balanced by Sorrento's defensive strengths limiting excessive scoring.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Foggia0.6
Avg goals scored
Sorrento1.6
Foggia1.4
Avg goals conceded
Sorrento0.8
Foggia40%
BTTS rate
Sorrento40%
Foggia20%
Over 2.5 goals
Sorrento40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 50% · edge +6.7 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
4
Check odds @ 4
Both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, suggesting moderate likelihood of both sides scoring. Sorrento's better defensive record and Foggia's low scoring rate imply a tighter game, but the average 2.63 goals in their head-to-head matches indicate potential for goals, supporting a balanced goals market.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Foggia

LDLLD
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 3L
20 Sep 2026A Inter U232-3
15 Sep 2026H Savoia0-0
12 Sep 2026A SS Monopoli0-1
06 Sep 2026H Audace Cerignola0-2
29 Aug 2026H Salernitana1-1

Sorrento

LWWWW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 0D 1L
19 Sep 2026H Bari1-2
15 Sep 2026A Cavese3-2
12 Sep 2026H AZ Picerno1-0
05 Sep 2026A Giugliano2-0
29 Aug 2026H Crotone1-0
Market aligned with main pickSorrento to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Sorrento Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Sorrento's recent form is strong, with 12 points accrued and a positive goal difference, indicating momentum and . Foggia's 2 points and lower scoring rate highlight struggles in converting chances and defensive lapses, suggesting a form gap that favors Sorrento's victory.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSorrento to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Load more odds for this section
Sorrento Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The 46.3% for Sorrento to Win sits against roughly 31.3% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Sorrento have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 2 for Foggia.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Foggia Over 2.5
40%Sorrento Over 2.5
2.63H2H avg goals
In the last eight head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.63, indicating moderately open games with goal opportunities. This trend suggests a reasonable tempo and chance quality, supporting the potential for goals but balanced by Sorrento's defensive strengths limiting excessive scoring.

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