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Fluminense crestFluminense
v
Coritiba crestCoritiba

Serie A | Fri 09 Oct, 01:30

Fluminense v Coritiba Stats

Data last updated: Thu 08 Oct 2026, 08:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Fluminense hosts Coritiba in a Serie A clash where attacking intent is clear from both sides. Fluminense, ranked 5th, have been prolific at home, while Coritiba, 9th, also show offensive ambition despite defensive vulnerabilities. Both teams have strong recent over 2.5 goals rates, reflecting open games with goal-scoring opportunities. This fixture promises a lively contest with tactical openness and goal threat from key attackers, setting the stage for a potentially high-scoring encounter under the floodlights.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Fluminense and Coritiba have over 2.5 goals rates of 80% and 100% respectively in recent matches.
  • The average goals in their last 10 head-to-head meetings is 3.8, indicating frequent goal action.
  • Fluminense averages 11.8 shots per game with 5.6 on target, showing consistent attacking pressure.
  • Coritiba concedes 2.6 goals per game, highlighting defensive frailties that could be exploited.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Over 2.5 Goals at a strong 75.9% chance, well above the implied market chance of 54.1%, indicating clear value. Both teams exhibit attacking styles with high shot volumes and goal involvement from key players like Hulk and G. Cano for Fluminense, and Pedro Rocha for Coritiba. Their recent form and head-to-head history support an open game with multiple goals. No data limitations affect , making this a robust selection based on attacking metrics and tactical openness.

Model Probability69.1% model chance vs 54.1% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Over 2.5 RatesFluminense 80%, Coritiba 100%
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Goals3.8 average goals in last 10 matches
Positive
Shot VolumeHigh shots and shots on target for both teams
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game with both teams pushing forward, supported by their recent scoring trends and key offensive players. Fluminense's home form and Coritiba's defensive vulnerabilities suggest multiple goals are likely, making Over 2.5 Goals a tactically and statistically sound choice.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and attacking dynamics

“This fixture features two sides with strong attacking profiles and a history of high-scoring games, making Over 2.5 Goals a compelling pick supported by both form and player threat.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Fluminense and Coritiba have over 2.5 goals rates of 80% and 100% respectively in recent matches.

The average goals in their last 10 head-to-head meetings is 3.8, indicating frequent goal action.

Fluminense averages 11.8 shots per game with 5.6 on target, showing consistent attacking pressure.

Coritiba concedes 2.6 goals per game, highlighting defensive frailties that could be exploited.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last ten matches between these teams, the average goals scored is 3.8, a notably high figure.
  • This trend indicates a history of open games with attacking tempo and defensive gaps.
  • The sustained goal-scoring tempo in recent meetings supports the expectation of Over 2.5 Goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Fluminense2
Avg goals scored
Coritiba1.8
Fluminense1.6
Avg goals conceded
Coritiba2.6
Fluminense80%
BTTS rate
Coritiba80%
Fluminense80%
Over 2.5 goals
Coritiba100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 54% · edge +15 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Both teams have high over 2.5 goals rates recently, with Fluminense at 80% and Coritiba at 100%. Their last ten head-to-head matches averaged 3.8 goals, indicating frequent goal exchanges. Both teams also have 80% BTTS rates, suggesting that goals are likely from both sides, reinforcing the expectation of an open, goal-rich game.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Serie A hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 54% · edge +15 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Coritiba Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 41%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Fluminense to WinBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Fluminense Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 71%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Coritiba to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
7
Check odds @ 7
The 69.1% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 54.1% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Fluminense and 100% for Coritiba, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Fluminense

WLWDW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 5D 1L
20 Sep 2026A Corinthians3-1
12 Sep 2026A Atletico-MG1-3
06 Sep 2026H Vasco DA Gama1-0
30 Aug 2026A Atletico Paranaense3-3
22 Aug 2026H Remo2-1

Coritiba

LDLWW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
20 Sep 2026A Vasco DA Gama0-5
12 Sep 2026H Atletico Paranaense3-3
06 Sep 2026H Mirassol1-2
01 Sep 2026A Remo3-2
23 Aug 2026H Corinthians2-1
Best odds for this sectionCoritiba Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 41% vs implied 26% · edge +15 pts
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 47%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Fluminense to WinBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Fluminense Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 71%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Coritiba to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
7
Check odds @ 7
DrawBetUK guide price · model 24%
4
Check odds @ 4
Recent form data shows Fluminense scoring 2 goals per game and Coritiba 1.8, with both conceding multiple goals, especially Coritiba's 2.6 average against. Their over 2.5 goals rates are high, reflecting matches with open play and goal opportunities. This form supports the likelihood of a match exceeding 2.5 goals, consistent with their offensive and defensive patterns.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Fluminense Over 2.5
100%Coritiba Over 2.5
3.8H2H avg goals
In the last ten matches between these teams, the average goals scored is 3.8, a notably high figure. This trend indicates a history of open games with attacking tempo and defensive gaps. The sustained goal-scoring tempo in recent meetings supports the expectation of Over 2.5 Goals in this fixture.

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