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UEFA Europa Conference League | Thu 22 Oct, 17:45

FK Jablonec v Brighton Stats

Data last updated: Wed 21 Oct 2026, 14:05 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This UEFA Europa Conference League fixture features FK Jablonec hosting Brighton in a contest that pits a Czech side eager to capitalize on home advantage against a top-ranked English team. FK Jablonec has shown resilience with 9 points recently, while Brighton leads their domestic competition but faces a challenging away test. The tactical battle will likely focus on Jablonec's defensive organization and counterattacks against Brighton's high-volume shooting and possession control. With stakes high and Brighton's attacking prowess evident, Jablonec aims to secure at least a draw to maintain competitiveness in the group stage.

BT4Y best bet

FK Jablonec or Draw

  • FK Jablonec holds a 64.8% for double chance, indicating strong defensive solidity.
  • Brighton averages 27 shots per game, but FK Jablonec concedes only 1 goal on average, highlighting defensive discipline.
  • Jablonec's recent form includes 9 points with a modest 1.4 goals scored per match, showing efficiency over volume.
  • Brighton has a 0% BTTS rate recently, suggesting potential for a low-scoring game favoring Jablonec's defensive approach.
  • FK Jablonec's corners and cards stats reflect a controlled, disciplined style that supports a cautious game plan.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors FK Jablonec or Draw with a 64.8% chance, reflecting Jablonec's defensive resilience and ability to limit Brighton's prolific attack. Despite Brighton's high shot volume and goal-scoring form, Jablonec's compact defense and home advantage create a strong case for at least a draw. The price offers positive value given the implied chance is only 26.7%, making this a sensible selection. The limited goal threat from Jablonec is offset by their ability to frustrate opponents and capitalize on counter opportunities.

Defensive strengthFK Jablonec concedes just 1 goal per game
Strong positive
Brighton's shot volume27 shots per game but 0 goals conceded by Jablonec on average
Positive
Recent formJablonec earned 9 points recently, Brighton 7
Positive
BTTS rateBrighton 0% BTTS rate recently
Positive
Price value49.8% model chance vs 40% implied (+9.8 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

The tactical setup suggests FK Jablonec will prioritize defensive solidity and counterattacks, aiming to frustrate Brighton's high-volume offense. Data shows Jablonec's recent form and defensive numbers support a double chance outcome. This bet aligns well with the expected match dynamics and statistical profiles, making FK Jablonec or Draw a prudent selection.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match outcome and tactical balance

“FK Jablonec's disciplined defensive approach combined with Brighton's reliance on volume shooting creates a scenario where a draw or home double chance is a smart, data-backed choice.”

Key Data Signals

FK Jablonec or Draw evidence

FK Jablonec holds a 64.8% for double chance, indicating strong defensive solidity.

Brighton averages 27 shots per game, but FK Jablonec concedes only 1 goal on average, highlighting defensive discipline.

Jablonec's recent form includes 9 points with a modest 1.4 goals scored per match, showing efficiency over volume.

Brighton has a 0% BTTS rate recently, suggesting potential for a low-scoring game favoring Jablonec's defensive approach.

What To Watch In The Data

FK Jablonec or Draw notes

  • Over the last five matches, Brighton's games have a 67% rate of over 2.5 goals, but FK Jablonec's matches only reach 40%.
  • The contrasting tempos suggest this fixture may lean towards fewer goals due to Jablonec's defensive setup and Brighton's difficulty in breaking down compact teams, indicating a cautious tempo and moderate scoring potential.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

FK Jablonec1.4
Avg goals scored
Brighton2.67
FK Jablonec1
Avg goals conceded
Brighton0
FK Jablonec40%
BTTS rate
Brighton0%
FK Jablonec40%
Over 2.5 goals
Brighton67%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 56% · edge +7.2 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 36%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 41%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Goal trends indicate a low-scoring match is probable. FK Jablonec scores 1.4 goals per game and concedes 1, while Brighton scores 2.67 but has a 0% recent BTTS rate, suggesting they often keep clean sheets or fail to concede. This points to a match where goals may be limited, supporting a cautious game with potential for a narrow scoreline or draw.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Europa Conference League fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionFK Jablonec Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 32% vs implied 17% · edge +15 pts
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Load more odds for this section
FK Jablonec to WinBet365 guide price · model 26%
9
Check odds @ 9
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
6
Check odds @ 6
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 41%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Brighton Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
The 49.8% for FK Jablonec or Draw sits against roughly 40% implied by the current price (+9.8 pts).
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

FK Jablonec

LWLWW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 0D 3L
15 Oct 2026A SC Freiburg2-3
27 Aug 2026H Rangers1-0
20 Aug 2026A Rangers0-1
13 Aug 2026A Rīgas FS2-1
06 Aug 2026H Rīgas FS2-0

Brighton

WWD
Last 52W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 0L
15 Oct 2026H Kauno Žalgiris4-0
27 Aug 2026H Tromso4-0
20 Aug 2026A Tromso0-0
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
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FK Jablonec Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 32%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
FK Jablonec to WinBet365 guide price · model 26%
9
Check odds @ 9
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
6
Check odds @ 6
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.07
Check odds @ 1.07
Brighton Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Brighton to WinBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
FK Jablonec's recent form shows 9 points with a solid defensive record, conceding only 1 goal per game, while Brighton has 7 points with a higher scoring rate but no recent BTTS. This contrast highlights Jablonec's ability to grind out results and Brighton's challenge to break down disciplined defenses, supporting a double chance on Jablonec or draw.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%FK Jablonec Over 2.5
67%Brighton Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Brighton's games have a 67% rate of over 2.5 goals, but FK Jablonec's matches only reach 40%. The contrasting tempos suggest this fixture may lean towards fewer goals due to Jablonec's defensive setup and Brighton's difficulty in breaking down compact teams, indicating a cautious tempo and moderate scoring potential.

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