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Fiorentina crestFiorentina
v
Pisa crestPisa

Coppa Italia | Tue 15 Sep, 20:00

Fiorentina v Pisa Stats

Data last updated: Mon 14 Sep 2026, 07:49 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Coppa Italia Tuscan derby features Fiorentina, who have gained momentum with consecutive wins and control possession with an aggressive attacking style, facing a Pisa side struggling for wins but strong in aerial duels. Fiorentina's defensive vulnerabilities, especially against crosses and set pieces, contrast with Pisa's direct approach and aerial strength led by Idrissa Touré. The match carries high stakes as both teams seek to avoid relegation pressure, making tactical discipline and set-piece execution crucial in a fixture likely to see goals from both sides.

BT4Y best bet

Fiorentina to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Fiorentina have conceded in their last seven league matches, indicating defensive fragility.
  • Pisa excel in aerial duels, winning 5.3 per match, posing a threat from set pieces.
  • Fiorentina average 13.8 shots per game with 52.1% possession, showing attacking control.
  • Both teams have scored in Fiorentina's last seven league matches, supporting BTTS likelihood.
  • Moise Kean leads Fiorentina's attack with seven league goals, key for scoring chances.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Fiorentina to win with both teams scoring due to Fiorentina's strong attacking metrics, including high shot volume and possession, combined with their consistent defensive concessions. Pisa's aerial strength and set-piece threat increase the likelihood of them scoring despite their poor overall form. The offer positive value as the implied chance is significantly lower than the model's 53.4% probability. This pick balances Fiorentina's technical superiority with tactical vulnerabilities, making it a compelling choice. No data limitations affect in this match.

Model Probability53.4% chance Fiorentina Win & BTTS
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance28.6%
Strong positive
Value Edge+24.8%
Strong positive
Fiorentina Defensive RecordConceded in 7 straight matches
Positive
Pisa Aerial Strength5.3 aerial duels won per match
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Fiorentina's technical control and attacking volume make them favorites to win, but their defensive fragility almost guarantees Pisa will score. The tactical battle will hinge on Fiorentina's ability to maintain possession and create quality chances while managing Pisa's aerial threat. This combination supports a Fiorentina win with both teams scoring as the most logical outcome.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and tactical balance

“Fiorentina's control in possession and shot creation contrasts sharply with their defensive lapses, especially against aerial balls, making a high-scoring home win with both teams finding the net the most plausible scenario.”

Key Data Signals

Fiorentina to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Fiorentina have conceded in their last seven league matches, indicating defensive fragility.

Pisa excel in aerial duels, winning 5.3 per match, posing a threat from set pieces.

Fiorentina average 13.8 shots per game with 52.1% possession, showing attacking control.

Both teams have scored in Fiorentina's last seven league matches, supporting BTTS likelihood.

What To Watch In The Data

Fiorentina to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • In the last seven matches, Fiorentina have seen both teams score consistently, and their over 2.5 goals rate stands at 100%, indicating a trend towards high-scoring games.
  • Pisa's over 2.5 rate is lower, but their defensive lapses and aerial threat contribute to goal-scoring chances.
  • This trend panel suggests a match with multiple goals and supports the expectation of a Fiorentina win combined with both teams scoring.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Fiorentina4
Avg goals scored
Pisa1
Fiorentina1
Avg goals conceded
Pisa1
Fiorentina100%
BTTS rate
Pisa100%
Fiorentina100%
Over 2.5 goals
Pisa0%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 76% vs implied 63% · edge +12.7 pts
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.46
Check odds @ 1.46
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 25%
2.27
Check odds @ 2.27
Both teams have scored in Fiorentina's last seven league matches, highlighting persistent defensive vulnerabilities. Pisa's aerial control and direct play style increase their chances of scoring despite limited overall offensive output. Fiorentina's high shot volume and possession suggest multiple scoring opportunities, supporting an over 2.5 goals environment with both teams likely to find the net.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFiorentina to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 66% · edge +7.8 pts
1.51
Check odds @ 1.51
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
Fiorentina Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.46
Check odds @ 1.46
The market price of 3.5 (5/2) for Fiorentina to Win & Both Teams to Score reflects a strong value opportunity, as the model assigns a 53.4% chance to this outcome. The significant suggests the underestimate the likelihood of Pisa scoring despite Fiorentina's home advantage. This price is attractive given the tactical and statistical context, making it a positive-value bet rather than a price-sensitive watch.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Fiorentina4
Avg corners for
Pisa4
Fiorentina9
Avg total corners
Pisa8
Fiorentina1
Avg yellow cards
Pisa0
Fiorentina14
Avg shots
Pisa13

No priced odds are available for this section yet.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Fiorentina

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
14 Aug 2026H Benevento4-1

Pisa

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
17 Aug 2026H Empoli1-1
Market aligned with main pickFiorentina to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 66% · edge +7.8 pts
1.51
Check odds @ 1.51
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Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 86%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Fiorentina Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Fiorentina's recent form shows a positive trend with three points and four goals scored in their latest matches, maintaining a 100% BTTS rate. Pisa's form is less encouraging, with only one point and a single goal, but they also maintain a 100% BTTS rate, indicating they consistently concede and score. This recent data supports a match with goals from both sides and a Fiorentina win, reflecting momentum and tactical patterns.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Fiorentina wins
1Draws
0Pisa wins
23 Feb 2026Fiorentina v Pisa1-0
28 Sep 2025Pisa v Fiorentina0-0
Market aligned with main pickFiorentina to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 66% · edge +7.8 pts
1.51
Check odds @ 1.51
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.46
Check odds @ 1.46
The head-to-head sample is limited to two matches with an average of 0.5 goals, indicating a low-scoring history. However, this small sample is less relevant given the current tactical and form context, where Fiorentina's attacking improvements and Pisa's aerial threat suggest a departure from previous low-scoring encounters. Therefore, H2H data offers limited support but should be considered background to current form and tactical dynamics.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Season team stats

Coppa Italia

Fiorentina1
Played
Pisa1
Fiorentina4
Avg goals for
Pisa2
Fiorentina1
Avg goals against
Pisa1
Fiorentina0
Clean sheets
Pisa0
Market aligned with main pickFiorentina to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 66% · edge +7.8 pts
1.51
Check odds @ 1.51
Load more odds for this section
Fiorentina Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Fiorentina's season stats reveal a strong attacking profile with an average of 13.8 shots per game and 52.1% possession, but a defensive record marked by conceding in seven consecutive matches. Pisa's defensive weakness is compounded by a low scoring rate but offset by aerial strength. These season-long trends align with a high-scoring game where Fiorentina's offensive quality meets Pisa's set-piece threat, supporting the combined win and BTTS market.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Fiorentina Over 2.5
0%Pisa Over 2.5
0.5H2H avg goals
In the last seven matches, Fiorentina have seen both teams score consistently, and their over 2.5 goals rate stands at 100%, indicating a trend towards high-scoring games. Pisa's over 2.5 rate is lower, but their defensive lapses and aerial threat contribute to goal-scoring chances. This trend panel suggests a match with multiple goals and supports the expectation of a Fiorentina win combined with both teams scoring.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Fiorentina v Pisa prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Betting context

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