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Finland crestFinland
v
Albania crestAlbania

UEFA Nations League | Sat 03 Oct, 14:00

Finland v Albania Stats

Data last updated: Fri 02 Oct 2026, 10:42 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Finland and Albania face off in a crucial UEFA Nations League Group 1 clash, with both teams unbeaten and yet to concede a goal in the competition. Finland, buoyed by a commanding 7-0 win over San Marino but held to a goalless draw by Belarus, rely on a solid defensive foundation. Albania, leading the group with six points from two wins and consecutive clean sheets, present a consistent defensive challenge. The match carries high stakes as the winner could take control of the group, setting up a tactical battle between two disciplined sides focused on defensive solidity and cautious attacking play.

BT4Y best bet

BTTS No

  • Both Finland and Albania have kept clean sheets in all Nations League matches so far.
  • Albania have won their last two matches with consecutive shutouts.
  • Finland failed to score in their most recent 0-0 draw against Belarus.
  • Combined, the teams have not conceded in four group matches, highlighting defensive strength.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Both Teams To Score - No at 68% chance, reflecting the strong defensive records of Finland and Albania, each with multiple clean sheets in the Nations League. The implied of 1.73 offer positive value with a 10% edge, supported by Finland's recent goalless draw and Albania's efficient shutouts. This suggests a tactical, low-scoring encounter where at least one side is likely to keep a clean sheet. The absence of data limitations adds to this defensive outlook.

Model Chance68% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+10.2 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance68% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+10.2 pts)
Positive
Value Edge68% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+10.2 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Defensive FormBoth teams with multiple clean sheets
Strong positive
Price Sensitivity68% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+10.2 pts)
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

This match is poised as a defensive stalemate given both Finland and Albania's unbeaten and unbreached records in the Nations League. Finland's explosive start is tempered by recent scoring struggles, while Albania's consistent clean sheets underline their defensive discipline. The cautious tactical approach and high stakes suggest a low-scoring game where at least one side fails to score, making Both Teams To Score - No a sensible choice.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive solidity and tactical caution

“Finland and Albania's impeccable defensive records set the stage for a tightly contested match where scoring opportunities will be scarce, making a clean sheet for at least one side the most probable outcome.”

Key Data Signals

BTTS No evidence

Both Finland and Albania have kept clean sheets in all Nations League matches so far.

Albania have won their last two matches with consecutive shutouts.

Finland failed to score in their most recent 0-0 draw against Belarus.

Combined, the teams have not conceded in four group matches, highlighting defensive strength.

What To Watch In The Data

BTTS No notes

  • Over the last four Nations League matches involving these teams, no goals have been conceded, indicating a strong trend toward low-scoring games.
  • This sample suggests a slow tempo and tight defensive battles, making Over 2.5 Goals unlikely and reinforcing the BTTS No outlook.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Finland3.5
Avg goals scored
Albania2.5
Finland0
Avg goals conceded
Albania0
Finland0%
BTTS rate
Albania0%
Finland50%
Over 2.5 goals
Albania50%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS NoBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 58% · edge +10.2 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 32%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both Finland and Albania have kept clean sheets in all their Nations League matches, with Finland failing to score in their last game and Albania securing consecutive shutouts. This defensive solidity suggests a low-scoring match with a high likelihood that both teams will not score, supporting the BTTS No selection and under 3.5 goals context.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Nations League fixtures and predictionsFinland v Albania predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 44% · edge +6.5 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Albania to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Albania Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 44%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Finland to WinBet365 guide price · model 38%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Finland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
DrawBetfred guide price · model 28%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
The 68% for BTTS No sits against roughly 57.8% implied by the current price (+10.2 pts). Finland show a 0% BTTS rate and Albania show a 0% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Selection: Both Teams To Score - NO.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Finland

DW
Last 51W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 0L
29 Sep 2026H Belarus0-0
26 Sep 2026A San Marino7-0

Albania

WW
Last 52W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 0L
29 Sep 2026A San Marino3-0
26 Sep 2026H Belarus2-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 65% · edge -3.3 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Albania to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Albania Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 44%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Finland to WinBet365 guide price · model 38%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Finland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
DrawBetfred guide price · model 28%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Recent form data shows Finland with 4 points from two matches and Albania with 6 points, both sides yet to concede. Finland's recent 0-0 draw contrasts with Albania's back-to-back wins with clean sheets, highlighting Albania's sharper defensive consistency. This form supports a cautious game with a high chance of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Finland Over 2.5
50%Albania Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last four Nations League matches involving these teams, no goals have been conceded, indicating a strong trend toward low-scoring games. This sample suggests a slow tempo and tight defensive battles, making Over 2.5 Goals unlikely and reinforcing the BTTS No outlook.

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