Fenerbahçe

Sturm Graz

UEFA Champions League | Wed 05 Aug, 19:00

Fenerbahçe v Sturm Graz Stats

Data last updated: Tue 04 Aug 2026, 05:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Fenerbahçe hosts Sturm Graz in a high-stakes UEFA Champions League qualifier at Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium. Fenerbahçe aims to break an 18-year absence from the competition proper, carrying strong home form with six unbeaten matches and a potent attack led by Anderson Talisca. Sturm Graz arrives unbeaten this season, boasting a solid defensive record with two clean sheets and an efficient attack, highlighted by Szymon Wlodarczyk's recent scoring form. Both teams possess tactical discipline and attacking threats, setting the stage for a competitive match where both sides are likely to find the net.

BT4Y match pick

Both Teams to Score

Fenerbahçe has scored in 82% of their last 55 matches, averaging 1.93 goals per game.
Sturm Graz has scored in all six recent matches, conceding only 0.5 goals on average.
Both teams have scored in eight of Fenerbahçe’s last 10 home games and four of Sturm Graz’s last five away games.
Sturm Graz’s defensive discipline contrasts with Fenerbahçe’s occasional defensive lapses, increasing chances for goals at both ends.
Recent form shows Sturm Graz’s unbeaten run and Fenerbahçe’s strong home scoring record underpin BTTS likelihood.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model sees a balanced 50% chance for both teams to score, supported by Fenerbahçe’s consistent home scoring and Sturm Graz’s unbeaten scoring streak this season. Both sides generate high attacking volumes and have shown vulnerability in defense, making a BTTS outcome plausible. The data quality is solid with no limitations, and the reflect a fair value proposition without warning flags. This pick aligns well with the tactical context of two teams eager to assert themselves offensively in a crucial qualifier.

Fenerbahçe scoring consistency82% matches with goals scored

Strong positive

Sturm Graz scoring streak6 consecutive matches with goals

Strong positive

Defensive vulnerabilityFenerbahçe conceded in 50% recent matches

Positive

Attacking volumeHigh shots and key passes for both teams

Positive

Odds fairnessImplied chance matches model chance at 50%

Neutral

Main risk

Fenerbahce carry the stronger scoring threat, but Sturm Graz must contribute for BTTS to land.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score rationale

“This fixture features two sides with clear offensive intent but also defensive vulnerabilities, making Both Teams to Score a logical and well-supported market. The balance of attacking threat and defensive lapses on both sides underpins this selection.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Fenerbahçe has scored in 82% of their last 55 matches, averaging 1.93 goals per game.

Sturm Graz has scored in all six recent matches, conceding only 0.5 goals on average.

Both teams have scored in eight of Fenerbahçe’s last 10 home games and four of Sturm Graz’s last five away games.

Sturm Graz’s defensive discipline contrasts with Fenerbahçe’s occasional defensive lapses, increasing chances for goals at both ends.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

Over the last six matches, Sturm Graz has a 50% rate of Over 2.5 Goals, while Fenerbahçe has none recently, suggesting a trend toward moderate scoring totals.
The average goals per match in their head-to-head is 2.5, indicating a balanced tempo with potential for multiple goals but not necessarily a high-scoring shootout.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Fenerbahçe8

Avg corners for

Sturm Graz3

Fenerbahçe13.5

Avg total corners

Sturm Graz13

Fenerbahçe2.5

Avg yellow cards

Sturm Graz1

Fenerbahçe14.5

Avg shots

Sturm Graz18.5

Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 58% · edge +11.2 pts

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

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Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

Over 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price

1.98

Check odds @ 1.98

Fenerbahçe averages 8 corners per game compared to Sturm Graz’s 3, indicating territorial control and sustained pressure by the home side. Sturm Graz compensates with higher shot volume and accuracy, creating dangerous counter-attacks. Card averages suggest moderate discipline, with Fenerbahçe receiving more yellows, which could influence match tempo and physicality.

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Useful next reads

UEFA Champions League hub Fenerbahçe v Sturm Graz prediction corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles stats dashboard football analysis hub prediction centre best bets research acca fixture filtering

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Fenerbahçe1

Avg goals scored

Sturm Graz3

Fenerbahçe0.5

Avg goals conceded

Sturm Graz0

Fenerbahçe50%

BTTS rate

Sturm Graz0%

Fenerbahçe0%

Over 2.5 goals

Sturm Graz50%

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 52% · edge -2.4 pts

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%

2.62

Check odds @ 2.62

Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%

1.2

Check odds @ 1.2

Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%

1.65

Check odds @ 1.65

Both teams have strong recent scoring records, with Fenerbahçe scoring in 82% of matches and Sturm Graz scoring in all six recent games. Defensive lapses on both sides and the tendency for matches to feature goals at both ends support the likelihood of a BTTS outcome in this fixture.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 52% · edge -2.4 pts

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

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Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

Sturm Graz Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 37%

4.5

Check odds @ 4.5

Sturm Graz to WinBetfred guide price · model 29%

Check odds @ 7

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 22%

4.75

Check odds @ 4.75

Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%

1.65

Check odds @ 1.65

Fenerbahçe Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%

1.19

Check odds @ 1.19

The Both Teams to Score market is priced fairly at even , reflecting an implied 50% chance that aligns closely with the model’s assessment. This suggests the market views the attacking strengths and defensive weaknesses of both teams as balanced, making this a price-sensitive but reasonable selection without clear value upside.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Fenerbahçe

Last 51W 1D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 1D 0L

29 Jul 2026A Gornik Zabrze1-1

21 Jul 2026H Gornik Zabrze1-0

Sturm Graz

Last 52W 0D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 102W 0D 0L

28 Jul 2026A Heart Of Midlothian2-0

21 Jul 2026H Heart Of Midlothian4-0

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts

Check odds @ 3

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Sturm Graz Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 37%

4.5

Check odds @ 4.5

Sturm Graz to WinBetfred guide price · model 29%

Check odds @ 7

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 22%

4.75

Check odds @ 4.75

Fenerbahçe Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%

1.19

Check odds @ 1.19

Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 49%

1.08

Check odds @ 1.08

Fenerbahçe to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

Fenerbahçe’s recent home form includes four wins and two draws, scoring consistently while conceding occasionally. Sturm Graz remains unbeaten with five wins and one draw, scoring freely and maintaining defensive discipline. Both teams’ recent form supports a competitive match with goals at both ends, reinforcing the BTTS selection.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Fenerbahçe wins

1Draws

0Sturm Graz wins

03 Aug 2017Fenerbahçe v Sturm Graz1-1

27 Jul 2017Sturm Graz v Fenerbahçe1-2

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 52% · edge -2.4 pts

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

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Sturm Graz to WinBetfred guide price · model 29%

Check odds @ 7

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 22%

4.75

Check odds @ 4.75

Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%

1.65

Check odds @ 1.65

Fenerbahçe to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

The two previous competitive meetings between these teams have averaged 2.5 goals per game, with both sides scoring in at least one of those matches. While the sample is limited, the historical data supports the possibility of goals at both ends, aligning with the BTTS selection.

Season team stats

UEFA Champions League

Fenerbahçe2

Played

Sturm Graz2

Fenerbahçe1

Avg goals for

Sturm Graz3

Fenerbahçe0.5

Avg goals against

Sturm Graz0

Fenerbahçe1

Clean sheets

Sturm Graz2

Best odds for this sectionSturm Graz Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts

4.5

Check odds @ 4.5

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Sturm Graz to WinBetfred guide price · model 29%

Check odds @ 7

Fenerbahçe Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%

1.19

Check odds @ 1.19

Fenerbahçe to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

Fenerbahçe’s season stats show a strong attack averaging nearly two goals per game and a moderate concession rate. Sturm Graz displays a high scoring average of 2.67 goals per game with a tight defense conceding only 0.5 goals. These contrasting defensive profiles combined with potent offenses suggest a match where both teams can score.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Fenerbahçe Over 2.5

50%Sturm Graz Over 2.5

2.5H2H avg goals

Over the last six matches, Sturm Graz has a 50% rate of Over 2.5 Goals, while Fenerbahçe has none recently, suggesting a trend toward moderate scoring totals. The average goals per match in their head-to-head is 2.5, indicating a balanced tempo with potential for multiple goals but not necessarily a high-scoring shootout.

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Betting context

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Fenerbahçe v Sturm Graz Stats

Match Report

Both Teams to Score

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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Fenerbahçe v Sturm Graz Stats

Match Report

Both Teams to Score

Why The Model Likes This Bet

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Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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Fenerbahçe

Sturm Graz

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