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Fenerbahçe crestFenerbahçe
v
Sturm Graz crestSturm Graz

UEFA Champions League | Wed 05 Aug, 19:00

Fenerbahçe v Sturm Graz Stats

Data last updated: Tue 25 Aug 2026, 00:42 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Fenerbahçe face Sturm Graz in UEFA Champions League on Wed 05 Aug, 19:00. Sturm's strong home record and recent attacking form support their scoring chances, while Fenerbahce remain unbeaten in their Champions League qualifiers and away games, making a win with goals at both ends plausible.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Fenerbahce to win and both teams to score

  • At 5/2, Fenerbahce to win and both teams to score implies roughly 29%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 14%.
  • Sturm Graz and Fenerbahce both carry scoring threat, but the result leg still demands a clear winner.
  • Fenerbahçe need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Fenerbahçe on 4 and Sturm Graz on 6.
  • The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 50% for Fenerbahçe and 0% for Sturm Graz.
  • Fenerbahce to win and both teams to score needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 1 for Fenerbahçe and 3 for Sturm Graz are central to the read.
Price warning

Fenerbahce to win and both teams to score is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 29% while the model sits nearer 14% (-14.8 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Under 2.5 Goals shows a +15 pts edge at 2.2.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 14% for Fenerbahce to win and both teams to score sits against roughly 29% implied by the current price. Fenerbahçe need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Fenerbahçe on 4 and Sturm Graz on 6. Sturm Graz and Fenerbahce both carry scoring threat, but the result leg still demands a clear winner.

Model chance vs price14% model chance against roughly 29% implied
Negative
Fenerbahçe need the result edge to pair with scoring at.Visible data support
Positive
The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg.Visible data support
Positive
Sturm Graz and Fenerbahce both carry scoring threat.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Fenerbahçe Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because sturm Graz and Fenerbahce both carry scoring threat, but the result leg still demands a clear winner. Fenerbahçe need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Fenerbahçe on 4 and Sturm Graz on 6. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

Fenerbahce to win and both teams to score evidence

Sturm Graz and Fenerbahce both carry scoring threat, but the result leg still demands a clear winner.

Fenerbahçe need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Fenerbahçe on 4 and Sturm Graz on 6.

The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 50% for Fenerbahçe and 0% for Sturm Graz.

Fenerbahçe Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 1 for Fenerbahçe and 3 for Sturm Graz are central to the read.

What To Watch In The Data

Fenerbahce to win and both teams to score notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Fenerbahçe8
Avg corners for
Sturm Graz2
Fenerbahçe13.5
Avg total corners
Sturm Graz10
Fenerbahçe2.5
Avg yellow cards
Sturm Graz1
Fenerbahçe14.5
Avg shots
Sturm Graz17
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 58% · edge +11.2 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Fenerbahçe1
Avg goals scored
Sturm Graz3
Fenerbahçe0.5
Avg goals conceded
Sturm Graz0
Fenerbahçe50%
BTTS rate
Sturm Graz0%
Fenerbahçe0%
Over 2.5 goals
Sturm Graz50%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFenerbahçe Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 84% · edge -39 pts
1.19
Check odds @ 1.19
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Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Fenerbahçe to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Fenerbahçe Draw No Bet is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Fenerbahçe

DW
Last 51W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 0L
29 Jul 2026A Gornik Zabrze1-1
21 Jul 2026H Gornik Zabrze1-0

Sturm Graz

WW
Last 52W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 0L
28 Jul 2026A Heart Of Midlothian2-0
21 Jul 2026H Heart Of Midlothian4-0
Market aligned with main pickFenerbahçe Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 84% · edge -39 pts
1.19
Check odds @ 1.19
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.08
Check odds @ 1.08
Fenerbahçe to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Fenerbahçe wins
1Draws
0Sturm Graz wins
03 Aug 2017Fenerbahçe v Sturm Graz1-1
27 Jul 2017Sturm Graz v Fenerbahçe1-2
Market aligned with main pickFenerbahçe to WinBetUK guide price · Model 27% vs implied 74% · edge -46.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
The head-to-head sample gives context for Fenerbahçe to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

UEFA Champions League

Fenerbahçe5
Played
Sturm Graz4
Fenerbahçe1.2
Avg goals for
Sturm Graz1.5
Fenerbahçe0.4
Avg goals against
Sturm Graz0.8
Fenerbahçe3
Clean sheets
Sturm Graz2
Market aligned with main pickFenerbahçe Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 84% · edge -39 pts
1.19
Check odds @ 1.19
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Fenerbahçe to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Season data supports Fenerbahçe Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Fenerbahçe Over 2.5
50%Sturm Graz Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Fenerbahçe sit at 0% and Sturm Graz sit at 50% with the H2H average at 2.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.