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FC Thun crestFC Thun
v
Servette FC crestServette FC

Super League | Wed 16 Sep, 18:00

FC Thun v Servette FC Stats

Data last updated: Wed 16 Sep 2026, 15:34 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Super League fixture features FC Thun hosting Servette FC in a crucial mid-table clash. Both teams have collected seven points so far, with Servette showing a more compact defensive record, conceding just one goal per game compared to Thun's 2.2. Servette's tactical discipline and recent momentum, including a tighter defense and efficient counter-attacks, contrast with Thun's more open style that yields higher scoring but also defensive vulnerabilities. The match carries importance for both sides aiming to climb the standings, with Servette's balanced approach likely to challenge Thun's attacking intent under pressure.

BT4Y best bet

Servette FC to Win

  • Servette FC has a model-estimated 53.6% chance to win, offering positive value at 2.25 .
  • Thun concedes 2.2 goals per game, while Servette concedes only 1, indicating defensive solidity for Servette.
  • Servette averages 14.2 shots per game with higher shots on target (4.4) than Thun (3.2), showing efficient attacking threat.
  • Head-to-head matches average 3.63 goals, suggesting open games but Servette's defense may limit Thun's scoring.
  • Key Servette attackers like K. Lambourde provide goal threat and shot volume supporting the win bet.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Servette FC to win based on their superior defensive record, efficient shot conversion, and balanced squad performance. Despite Thun's higher scoring rate, their defensive frailties and Servette's ability to limit chances create a solid foundation for an away win. The of 2.25 imply a 44.4% chance, while the model estimates a 53.6% probability, indicating a positive of 9.2%. This bet benefits from Servette's recent form and player-level attacking contributions, making it a compelling selection with standard staking recommended.

Model Win Probability53.6%
Strong positive
Implied Market Probability44.4%
Neutral
Value Edge9.2%
Strong positive
Servette Defensive Record1 goal conceded per game
Positive
Thun Defensive Record2.2 goals conceded per game
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Servette FC's disciplined defense and efficient attack provide a tactical edge over FC Thun, whose defensive vulnerabilities could be exploited. The data supports Servette's ability to secure a win, reflecting their balanced squad and recent form consistency in the Super League.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Servette FC to Win

“Servette FC's combination of defensive resilience and focused attacking players like Mutandwa makes them the more reliable side in this matchup, especially against a Thun team prone to conceding goals.”

Key Data Signals

Servette FC to Win evidence

Servette FC has a model-estimated 53.6% chance to win, offering positive value at 2.25 .

Thun concedes 2.2 goals per game, while Servette concedes only 1, indicating defensive solidity for Servette.

Servette averages 14.2 shots per game with higher shots on target (4.4) than Thun (3.2), showing efficient attacking threat.

Head-to-head matches average 3.63 goals, suggesting open games but Servette's defense may limit Thun's scoring.

What To Watch In The Data

Servette FC to Win notes

  • Over the last eight head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.63, indicating a tendency for open games with multiple goals.
  • However, Servette's recent defensive solidity and lower over 2.5 goals rate (20%) compared to Thun's 60% suggest this fixture may see fewer goals than historical averages, with Servette controlling tempo and limiting scoring opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

FC Thun1.6
Avg goals scored
Servette FC0.8
FC Thun2.2
Avg goals conceded
Servette FC1
FC Thun60%
BTTS rate
Servette FC40%
FC Thun60%
Over 2.5 goals
Servette FC20%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 49% vs implied 39% · edge +10.6 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The average goals per match in head-to-head meetings is 3.63, suggesting open games historically. However, Servette's lower goals conceded rate and Thun's higher defensive vulnerability imply a match where Servette can control the game and limit Thun's scoring chances. Both teams scoring is less likely given Servette's defensive discipline, making a focus on Servette's win more plausible than a high-scoring BTTS scenario.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickServette FC to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 42% · edge +11.9 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
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Servette FC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 63%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
The of 2.25 for Servette FC to win reflect a market-implied chance of 44.4%, which is notably lower than the model's 53.6% probability. This discrepancy indicates positive value in backing Servette, supported by their defensive strength and efficient attacking metrics. The price is attractive and justifies a standard stake, with potential for further value if drift upward.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

FC Thun5.2
Avg corners for
Servette FC5.4
FC Thun10.2
Avg total corners
Servette FC12
FC Thun2.6
Avg yellow cards
Servette FC2.4
FC Thun15.4
Avg shots
Servette FC14.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 56% · edge +7.2 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams generate similar corner counts, with Servette averaging 5.4 and Thun 5.2 per game, indicating balanced territorial exchanges. Servette's slightly lower yellow card average (2.4 vs. 2.6) suggests disciplined play, which supports maintaining defensive shape. Servette's higher shots on target (4.4) compared to Thun (3.2) highlight their attacking efficiency and ability to create quality chances under pressure.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

FC Thun

LLDWL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 4L
12 Sep 2026H Grasshoppers0-1
06 Sep 2026A FC Sion2-3
02 Sep 2026H Lausanne0-0
30 Aug 2026A FC ST. Gallen4-3
09 Aug 2026A FC Basel 18932-4

Servette FC

WLLDW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 4L
13 Sep 2026A Lausanne1-0
06 Sep 2026H FC ST. Gallen0-2
03 Sep 2026A FC Lugano0-1
29 Aug 2026H FC Luzern1-1
08 Aug 2026H Grasshoppers2-1
Market aligned with main pickServette FC to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 42% · edge +11.9 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 80%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Servette FC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 63%
2
Check odds @ 2
Recent form data shows Servette FC accumulating 7 points with a strong defensive record, conceding only one goal per game, while FC Thun has 4 points and concedes 2.2 goals per game. Servette's ability to maintain clean sheets and limit opponent chances contrasts with Thun's more open and vulnerable defensive performances, giving Servette momentum and heading into this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5FC Thun wins
0Draws
3Servette FC wins
08 Feb 2026Servette FC v FC Thun1-3
08 Nov 2025Servette FC v FC Thun0-1
18 Oct 2025FC Thun v Servette FC3-1
27 Oct 2021FC Thun v Servette FC4-1
22 Jul 2020FC Thun v Servette FC5-1
02 Feb 2020Servette FC v FC Thun2-0
Market aligned with main pickServette FC to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 42% · edge +11.9 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
The eight previous meetings between FC Thun and Servette FC have averaged 3.63 goals per game, showing a history of open contests. While this supports the possibility of goals, Servette's current defensive improvements and tactical discipline reduce the likelihood of a high-scoring game this time. The head-to-head data provides background but recent form and defensive trends carry more weight for this match.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Super League

FC Thun7
Played
Servette FC7
FC Thun1.6
Avg goals for
Servette FC0.7
FC Thun2.6
Avg goals against
Servette FC1.1
FC Thun1
Clean sheets
Servette FC1
Market aligned with main pickServette FC to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 42% · edge +11.9 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
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Servette FC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 63%
2
Check odds @ 2
Throughout the season, Servette FC has demonstrated a solid defensive profile, conceding fewer goals and maintaining a lower BTTS rate (40%) compared to Thun's 60%. Servette's attack is efficient with a moderate goals-for rate, supported by quality shot creation. This balance between attack and defense underpins Servette's suitability for a winning bet in this matchup.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
9Servette FC77214-3
10FC Thun77214-7
Both teams sit close in the league standings, with Servette ranked 9th and FC Thun 10th, each with 7 points. This proximity adds competitive tension but Servette's slightly better defensive record and recent form provide them with a marginal advantage. The standings suggest both teams are motivated, but Servette's consistency may prove decisive.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%FC Thun Over 2.5
20%Servette FC Over 2.5
3.63H2H avg goals
Over the last eight head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.63, indicating a tendency for open games with multiple goals. However, Servette's recent defensive solidity and lower over 2.5 goals rate (20%) compared to Thun's 60% suggest this fixture may see fewer goals than historical averages, with Servette controlling tempo and limiting scoring opportunities.

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