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FC Thun crestFC Thun
v
HNK Hajduk Split crestHNK Hajduk Split

UEFA Europa Conference League | Thu 22 Oct, 20:00

FC Thun v HNK Hajduk Split Stats

Data last updated: Wed 21 Oct 2026, 14:06 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This UEFA Europa Conference League fixture features FC Thun hosting HNK Hajduk Split, with the away side arriving in strong form after securing 13 points recently and averaging over three goals scored per match. FC Thun have struggled offensively, failing to score in recent outings and conceding regularly. Hajduk Split's attacking momentum and superior recent results set a clear tactical contrast, with the away team expected to press their advantage and control the match tempo in pursuit of victory.

BT4Y best bet

HNK Hajduk Split to Win

  • Hajduk Split holds a 70% to win, reflecting strong recent form and attacking output.
  • FC Thun has scored no goals recently, while Hajduk Split averages 3.2 goals per game.
  • Hajduk Split's over 2.5 goals rate is 100%, indicating high-scoring matches.
  • FC Thun averages only 1 corner per game versus Hajduk Split's 5.4, showing less attacking pressure.
  • Key Hajduk Split players like M. Šotiček contribute significant shots and assists, boosting goal threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors HNK Hajduk Split to win due to their dominant recent form, averaging 3.2 goals per game and maintaining a 100% over 2.5 goals rate. FC Thun's lack of scoring and low attacking metrics contrast sharply, highlighting Hajduk Split's clear superiority. Player-level data shows multiple Hajduk Split attackers generating high shot volumes and key passes, reinforcing their offensive edge. The price offers positive value with a 29.2% edge, making this a solid selection based on both data and football context.

Recent FormHajduk Split unbeaten with 13 points; FC Thun winless
Strong positive
Goal ScoringHajduk Split 3.2 goals/game; FC Thun 0 goals
Strong positive
Shots & Key PassesMultiple Hajduk players with high shots and assists
Positive
Corners & PressureHajduk Split averages 5.4 corners vs. FC Thun's 1
Positive
Price Value43% model chance vs 40.8% implied (+2.2 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

HNK Hajduk Split's strong attacking form and superior recent results make them the clear favorite to win this match. Their ability to create and convert chances contrasts with FC Thun's current offensive struggles, suggesting Hajduk Split will control the game and secure victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Hajduk Split's attacking efficiency and consistent goal threat, led by players like M. Šotiček, position them well to capitalize on FC Thun's scoring difficulties and claim the win.”

Key Data Signals

HNK Hajduk Split to Win evidence

Hajduk Split holds a 70% to win, reflecting strong recent form and attacking output.

FC Thun has scored no goals recently, while Hajduk Split averages 3.2 goals per game.

Hajduk Split's over 2.5 goals rate is 100%, indicating high-scoring matches.

FC Thun averages only 1 corner per game versus Hajduk Split's 5.4, showing less attacking pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

HNK Hajduk Split to Win notes

  • Recent matches involving Hajduk Split show a clear trend towards over 2.5 goals, with a 100% rate in their last fixtures.
  • This suggests a high-tempo game with open attacking play, increasing the likelihood of multiple goals in this encounter against FC Thun.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

FC Thun0
Avg goals scored
HNK Hajduk Split3.2
FC Thun1
Avg goals conceded
HNK Hajduk Split1.4
FC Thun0%
BTTS rate
HNK Hajduk Split80%
FC Thun0%
Over 2.5 goals
HNK Hajduk Split100%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 46% · edge +8.5 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 44%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 32%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Hajduk Split's matches have consistently featured over 2.5 goals, with an 80% BTTS rate, driven by their potent attack averaging 3.2 goals per game. FC Thun's recent matches have lacked goals, but Hajduk Split's offensive pressure suggests this fixture will likely see multiple goals and both teams scoring is probable.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickHNK Hajduk Split to WinBetUK guide price · Model 43% vs implied 41% · edge +2.2 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
HNK Hajduk Split Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The 43% for HNK Hajduk Split to Win sits against roughly 40.8% implied by the current price (+2.2 pts). HNK Hajduk Split have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 0 for FC Thun.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

FC Thun

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
15 Oct 2026A Twente0-1

HNK Hajduk Split

WWDWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 0L
15 Oct 2026H Ajax2-1
27 Aug 2026A Raków Częstochowa3-2
20 Aug 2026H Raków Częstochowa2-2
13 Aug 2026H FK Zalgiris Vilnius4-0
06 Aug 2026A FK Zalgiris Vilnius5-2
Market aligned with main pickHNK Hajduk Split to WinBetUK guide price · Model 43% vs implied 41% · edge +2.2 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
HNK Hajduk Split Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Hajduk Split's recent form is impressive, securing 13 points with a strong goal difference, while FC Thun has yet to earn points and has failed to score. This contrast highlights Hajduk Split's momentum and , suggesting they will maintain control and press for a win in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%FC Thun Over 2.5
100%HNK Hajduk Split Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Recent matches involving Hajduk Split show a clear trend towards over 2.5 goals, with a 100% rate in their last fixtures. This suggests a high-tempo game with open attacking play, increasing the likelihood of multiple goals in this encounter against FC Thun.

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