Football Stats Hub

FC Porto crestFC Porto
v
Benfica crestBenfica

Primeira Liga | Sun 20 Sep, 20:30

FC Porto v Benfica Stats

Data last updated: Sat 19 Sep 2026, 08:19 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Benfica host FC Porto in a high-stakes Primeira Liga clash where tactical discipline and defensive solidity are paramount. Benfica arrive unbeaten in 39 league games and boast a strong home record, while Porto lead the table with a formidable defence conceding only eight goals in 24 matches. The match is expected to be a tight, tactical battle with Benfica's wide attacking play challenging Porto's compact central defence. Both teams have shown resilience in previous encounters this season, suggesting a closely contested game where a draw is a highly plausible outcome.

BT4Y match pick

Draw

  • Porto have conceded just 8 goals in 24 league matches, showcasing elite defensive organisation.
  • Benfica remain unbeaten in 39 straight league games and have won their last five home matches.
  • Previous meetings this season ended 0-0 and 1-0 in Porto's favour, indicating tight contests.
  • Both teams average over 2 goals per game, but defensive strength suggests a low-scoring match.
  • Porto have drawn at half-time in their last four away league visits to Benfica, highlighting a cautious tempo.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The draw selection reflects the balance between Benfica's unbeaten home form and Porto's exceptional defensive record. Despite the being lower than the market implied probability, the tactical read supports a stalemate given the narrow margins and previous low-scoring meetings. The current price is short, so reduced staking or waiting for drift is advisable. Improvements in team news or line-ups could enhance value. This pick is football-led rather than a pure value bet.

Porto Defensive StrengthOnly 8 goals conceded in 24 matches
Strong positive
Benfica Home FormUnbeaten in 39 league games, 5 consecutive home wins
Strong positive
Previous MeetingsTwo tight results (0-0, 1-0) this season
Positive
Market PriceImplied chance (60%) exceeds model chance (27.2%)
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

A draw is the most tactically sound outcome given Porto's defensive resilience and Benfica's unbeaten home run. Both teams have shown the ability to cancel each other out in previous fixtures, making a stalemate a logical conclusion supported by their balanced recent form and defensive records.

Main risk

Kick-off is at 18:00, but the pressure will arrive long before that.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical balance and defensive solidity

“This fixture epitomizes tactical caution with two elite defences and evenly matched attacking threats. The draw is a natural result of Porto's defensive discipline meeting Benfica's home strength and attacking width.”

Key Data Signals

Draw evidence

Porto have conceded just 8 goals in 24 league matches, showcasing elite defensive organisation.

Benfica remain unbeaten in 39 straight league games and have won their last five home matches.

What To Watch In The Data

Draw notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.7, reflecting moderate scoring.
  • Porto's tendency to draw at half-time in recent away games at Benfica indicates a controlled tempo and tactical patience, reinforcing the likelihood of a low-scoring, balanced match.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

FC Porto2.6
Avg goals scored
Benfica3.8
FC Porto0.4
Avg goals conceded
Benfica0.4
FC Porto40%
BTTS rate
Benfica40%
FC Porto60%
Over 2.5 goals
Benfica100%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 88% vs implied 80% · edge +8 pts
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 44%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Both teams have strong defensive records with 22 clean sheets each, yet their attacking quality suggests goals are possible. The tactical battle between Benfica's wide play and Porto's central compactness often results in low-scoring matches, supporting an under 3.5 goals and BTTS No scenario in this game.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickDrawBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 30% · edge -3.1 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Benfica to WinBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Benfica Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
FC Porto to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
3
Check odds @ 3
The draw market price is notably short compared to the model's estimated chance, indicating a price-sensitive selection. The football context supports the draw given the defensive strengths and previous tight results, but the current suggest caution and recommend reduced stakes or waiting for better value.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

FC Porto5.67
Avg corners for
Benfica7.6
FC Porto9.67
Avg total corners
Benfica9
FC Porto0.33
Avg yellow cards
Benfica1.4
FC Porto12
Avg shots
Benfica18.8
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 50% · edge +8.4 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Both teams average 7.6 corners per game, reflecting balanced territorial battles. Benfica's higher yellow card average (1.4) compared to Porto's (0.6) suggests a more aggressive approach, while shot data shows Benfica create more chances but Porto maintain high shot efficiency, indicating a tightly contested match with disciplined defensive pressure.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

FC Porto

WWWWW
Last 55W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 0D 0L
12 Sep 2026A Casa Pia4-1
04 Sep 2026H Moreirense2-1
29 Aug 2026A Academico Viseu3-0
23 Aug 2026H Arouca2-0
15 Aug 2026A Rio Ave2-0

Benfica

WWWWW
Last 55W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 0L
13 Sep 2026H GIL Vicente3-1
09 Sep 2026A Moreirense4-0
05 Sep 2026A Maritimo3-0
31 Aug 2026H Estoril2-1
17 Aug 2026A Casa Pia7-0
Market aligned with main pickDrawBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 30% · edge -3.1 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 77%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Benfica to WinBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Benfica Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
FC Porto to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
3
Check odds @ 3
FC Porto Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Recent form data shows both teams earning 15 points in their last five matches, with Benfica scoring 3.8 goals per game and Porto 2.6. Both concede only 0.4 goals per game, underscoring their defensive solidity. This parity in form supports the likelihood of a closely fought draw in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3FC Porto wins
2Draws
5Benfica wins
08 Mar 2026Benfica v FC Porto2-2
14 Jan 2026FC Porto v Benfica1-0
05 Oct 2025FC Porto v Benfica0-0
06 Apr 2025FC Porto v Benfica1-4
10 Nov 2024Benfica v FC Porto4-1
03 Mar 2024FC Porto v Benfica5-0
Market aligned with main pickDrawBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 30% · edge -3.1 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Benfica to WinBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
FC Porto to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
3
Check odds @ 3
The head-to-head record shows tightly contested matches with low scorelines, including a 0-0 draw and a 1-0 win for Porto this season. These results underline the defensive strengths and tactical caution both teams employ against each other, providing solid background support for the draw outcome.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Primeira Liga

FC Porto6
Played
Benfica0
FC Porto2.5
Avg goals for
Benfica-
FC Porto0.3
Avg goals against
Benfica-
FC Porto4
Clean sheets
Benfica-
Best odds for this sectionBenfica to WinBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 43% · edge +7.5 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Load more odds for this section
Benfica Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
FC Porto to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
3
Check odds @ 3
FC Porto Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Season-long stats highlight Porto's elite defence conceding just 8 goals in 24 matches, while Benfica's attack is prolific with 51 goals scored. Both teams maintain strong defensive records, indicating a match where defensive organisation will be key, aligning with the draw prediction.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1FC Porto18660013
2Benfica16651017
Porto lead the Primeira Liga with 18 points, seven ahead of third-placed Benfica who have 16 points. The tight gap between the top two teams adds pressure for both sides, suggesting a cautious approach to avoid costly mistakes, which supports the expectation of a draw.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%FC Porto Over 2.5
100%Benfica Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.7, reflecting moderate scoring. Porto's tendency to draw at half-time in recent away games at Benfica indicates a controlled tempo and tactical patience, reinforcing the likelihood of a low-scoring, balanced match.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

FC Porto v Benfica prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

More stats pages

Vitória SC v MoreirensePrimeira Liga · Sun 20 Sep 15:30Estrela v Academico ViseuPrimeira Liga · Sun 20 Sep 15:30Santa Clara v SC BragaPrimeira Liga · Sun 20 Sep 18:00Estoril v Casa PiaPrimeira Liga · Sun 20 Sep 18:00

Competition and hubs

Primeira Liga hubPrimeira Liga hubrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football stats

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre