FC Porto

Arouca

Primeira Liga | Sun 23 Aug, 20:30

FC Porto v Arouca Stats

Data last updated: Wed 16 Sep 2026, 11:07 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

FC Porto face Arouca in Primeira Liga on Sun 23 Aug, 20:30. Porto have kept five clean sheets across their last 10 league matches through Diogo Costa and have conceded only 0.8 goals per game, extending that defensive strength into two shutouts this season.

BT4Y best bet

Porto to win and Both Teams to Score

At 11/5, Porto to win and Both Teams to Score implies roughly 31%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 33%.
Selection: Porto to win and Both Teams to Score.
FC Porto show a 0% BTTS rate and Arouca show a 0% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
FC Porto average 2 goals scored and Arouca average 2.5, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 33% for Porto to win and Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 31% implied by the current price. FC Porto show a 0% BTTS rate and Arouca show a 0% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Selection: Porto to win and Both Teams to Score.

Model chance vs price33% model chance against roughly 31% implied

Neutral

FC Porto show a 0% BTTS rate and Arouca show.Visible data support

Positive

FC Porto average 2 goals scored and Arouca average 2.5.Visible data support

Positive

Selection: Porto to win and Both Teams to Score.Article support

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because selection: Porto to win and Both Teams to Score. FC Porto show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Arouca show a 0% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Although Arouca produce a modest average of 3.

Main risk

Although Arouca produce a modest average of 3.

Key Data Signals

Porto to win and Both Teams to Score evidence

Selection: Porto to win and Both Teams to Score.

FC Porto show a 0% BTTS rate and Arouca show a 0% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

FC Porto average 2 goals scored and Arouca average 2.5, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

Porto to win and Both Teams to Score notes

Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

FC Porto2

Avg goals scored

Arouca2.5

FC Porto0

Avg goals conceded

Arouca0

FC Porto0%

BTTS rate

Arouca0%

FC Porto0%

Over 2.5 goals

Arouca50%

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 33% vs implied 46% · edge -12.2 pts

2.2

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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 59%

2.3

Check odds @ 2.3

BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 68%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 58%

1.18

Check odds @ 1.18

Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%

1.6

Check odds @ 1.6

Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%

2.5

Check odds @ 2.5

BTTS Yes does not fully support the current price: the BTTS rates are 0% for FC Porto and 0% for Arouca, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 33% vs implied 46% · edge -12.2 pts

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

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Arouca Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 30%

6.8

Check odds @ 6.8

Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 63%

1.5

Check odds @ 1.5

Arouca to WinBet365 guide price · model 19%

Check odds @ 13

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 20%

5.75

Check odds @ 5.75

FC Porto Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 69%

1.1

Check odds @ 1.1

FC Porto to WinBetfred guide price · model 62%

1.22

Check odds @ 1.22

BTTS Yes is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

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Useful next reads

more Primeira Liga analysis related match prediction corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles football stats hub football hub football predictions hub best bets research acca fixture filtering

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

FC Porto6.5

Avg corners for

Arouca3.5

FC Porto14

Avg total corners

Arouca7.5

FC Porto0

Avg yellow cards

Arouca4

FC Porto11.5

Avg shots

Arouca9.5

Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 53% · edge +4 pts

1.9

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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 63%

1.5

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Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price

2.38

Check odds @ 2.38

Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

FC Porto

Last 52W 0D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 102W 0D 0L

15 Aug 2026A Rio Ave2-0

09 Aug 2026H Alverca2-0

Arouca

Last 52W 0D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 102W 0D 0L

16 Aug 2026H Moreirense4-0

08 Aug 2026A Vitória SC1-0

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 40% vs implied 25% · edge +15 pts

Check odds @ 4

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Arouca Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 30%

6.8

Check odds @ 6.8

Arouca to WinBet365 guide price · model 19%

Check odds @ 13

Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 82%

1.04

Check odds @ 1.04

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 20%

5.75

Check odds @ 5.75

FC Porto Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 69%

1.1

Check odds @ 1.1

FC Porto to WinBetfred guide price · model 62%

1.22

Check odds @ 1.22

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

8FC Porto wins

1Draws

1Arouca wins

27 Feb 2026FC Porto v Arouca3-1

29 Sep 2025Arouca v FC Porto0-4

01 Mar 2025Arouca v FC Porto0-2

29 Sep 2024FC Porto v Arouca4-0

12 Feb 2024Arouca v FC Porto3-2

03 Sep 2023FC Porto v Arouca1-1

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 33% vs implied 46% · edge -12.2 pts

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

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Arouca to WinBet365 guide price · model 19%

Check odds @ 13

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 20%

5.75

Check odds @ 5.75

FC Porto to WinBetfred guide price · model 62%

1.22

Check odds @ 1.22

Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%

1.6

Check odds @ 1.6

The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Primeira Liga

FC Porto6

Played

Arouca6

FC Porto2.5

Avg goals for

Arouca1.3

FC Porto0.3

Avg goals against

Arouca0.8

FC Porto4

Clean sheets

Arouca3

Best odds for this sectionArouca Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 30% vs implied 15% · edge +15 pts

6.8

Check odds @ 6.8

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Arouca to WinBet365 guide price · model 19%

Check odds @ 13

FC Porto Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 69%

1.1

Check odds @ 1.1

FC Porto to WinBetfred guide price · model 62%

1.22

Check odds @ 1.22

Season data supports Arouca Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
1	FC Porto	18	6	6	0	0	13
5	Arouca	10	6	3	1	2	3

FC Porto sit in position 1, while Arouca sit in position 5, so table pressure belongs in the Porto to win and Both Teams to Score assessment.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%FC Porto Over 2.5

50%Arouca Over 2.5

3.4H2H avg goals

The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: FC Porto sit at 0% and Arouca sit at 50% with the H2H average at 3.4 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre

Football Stats Hub

FC Porto v Arouca Stats

Match Report

Porto to win and Both Teams to Score

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

FC Porto

Arouca

Next step

Your privacy choices

Football Stats Hub

FC Porto v Arouca Stats

Match Report

Porto to win and Both Teams to Score

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

FC Porto

Arouca

Related football research

Prediction context

More stats pages

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