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FC Midtjylland crestFC Midtjylland
v
St. Truiden crestSt. Truiden

UEFA Europa Conference League | Thu 22 Oct, 20:00

FC Midtjylland v St. Truiden Stats

Data last updated: Wed 21 Oct 2026, 14:06 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

FC Midtjylland hosts St. Truiden in a crucial UEFA Europa Conference League group stage clash. Midtjylland arrives with solid recent form, having secured 13 points in their last matches and averaging 2.4 goals scored per game while conceding less than one. Truiden, contrastingly, have struggled with only 3 points and a notably strong defensive record but no goals conceded recently. The tactical battle will likely see Midtjylland pressing for control and goals at home, aiming to capitalize on their attacking momentum against a resilient but less prolific St.

BT4Y match pick

FC Midtjylland to Win

  • FC Midtjylland has a 74% to win, showing strong in their victory.
  • Midtjylland averages 2.4 goals per game with a 60% BTTS rate, indicating offensive strength.
  • Truiden has yet to concede goals recently but also has a 0% BTTS rate, suggesting a defensive but low-scoring approach.
  • Midtjylland averages 14.4 shots per game with 7 on target, showing consistent attacking pressure.
  • The home side ranks 16th in their league but leads in recent form and points in this competition stage.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors FC Midtjylland to win with a 74% chance, driven by their superior recent form and attacking statistics. Midtjylland's higher goals per game and shot accuracy contrast with St. Truiden's defensive but less threatening offense. The of 12.3% at of 1.62 reflects a strong football read for Midtjylland's home advantage and offensive momentum. No data limitations affect , and the price aligns well with the model's assessment, making this a standard stake recommendation.

Recent formMidtjylland 13 points vs St. Truiden 3 points
Strong positive
Goals scoredMidtjylland 2.4 per game vs St. Truiden 2.0
Positive
Defensive solidityMidtjylland concedes 0.8 goals vs St. Truiden 0
Neutral
Shots and accuracyMidtjylland 14.4 shots, 7 SOT vs St. Truiden 20 shots, 5 SOT
Positive
Model value edge59.2% model chance vs 61.7% implied (-2.5 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

FC Midtjylland's recent attacking form and home advantage make them the clear favorite in this UEFA Europa Conference League fixture. Their ability to generate shots and goals contrasts with St. Truiden's defensive but less effective offense, supporting a confident home win prediction.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Midtjylland's offensive consistency and home momentum create a tactical edge that should see them control the match and secure victory against a defensively solid but limited St.”

Key Data Signals

FC Midtjylland to Win evidence

FC Midtjylland has a 74% to win, showing strong in their victory.

Midtjylland averages 2.4 goals per game with a 60% BTTS rate, indicating offensive strength.

Truiden has yet to concede goals recently but also has a 0% BTTS rate, suggesting a defensive but low-scoring approach.

Midtjylland averages 14.4 shots per game with 7 on target, showing consistent attacking pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

FC Midtjylland to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches, Midtjylland's games have featured a 40% rate of Over 2.5 goals, indicating moderate scoring tempo.
  • Truiden's matches have been low-scoring with no Over 2.5 occurrences, suggesting a defensive approach.
  • This contrast suggests the match may hinge on Midtjylland breaking through a tight defense rather than a high-scoring shootout.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

FC Midtjylland2.4
Avg goals scored
St. Truiden2
FC Midtjylland0.8
Avg goals conceded
St. Truiden0
FC Midtjylland60%
BTTS rate
St. Truiden0%
FC Midtjylland40%
Over 2.5 goals
St. Truiden0%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 43% · edge +15 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
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BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 51%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 52%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Midtjylland's 60% BTTS rate and 40% Over 2.5 goals rate indicate a team that often participates in matches with goals from both sides and moderate scoring totals. Truiden's 0% BTTS and Over 2.5 rates suggest a defensive style focused on low-scoring games, setting up a clash between Midtjylland's attack and St. Truiden's defense.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Europa Conference League fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFC Midtjylland to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 62% · edge -2.5 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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FC Midtjylland Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 43%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The 59.2% for FC Midtjylland to Win sits against roughly 61.7% implied by the current price (-2.5 pts). FC Midtjylland have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 3 for St.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

FC Midtjylland

DWWWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 0L
15 Oct 2026A Egnatia Rrogozhinë1-1
27 Aug 2026A HNK Rijeka4-1
20 Aug 2026H HNK Rijeka2-0
13 Aug 2026H Bohemians3-2
06 Aug 2026A Bohemians2-0

St. Truiden

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
15 Oct 2026H FC Iberia 19992-0
Market aligned with main pickFC Midtjylland to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 62% · edge -2.5 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 81%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
FC Midtjylland Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Midtjylland's recent form is strong, accumulating 13 points with a solid goal-scoring record, contrasting with St. Truiden's 3 points and more defensive posture. This momentum difference favors Midtjylland's and tactical assertiveness, likely influencing match dynamics in their favor.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%FC Midtjylland Over 2.5
0%St. Truiden Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Midtjylland's games have featured a 40% rate of Over 2.5 goals, indicating moderate scoring tempo. Truiden's matches have been low-scoring with no Over 2.5 occurrences, suggesting a defensive approach. This contrast suggests the match may hinge on Midtjylland breaking through a tight defense rather than a high-scoring shootout.

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