Football Stats Hub

FC Augsburg crestFC Augsburg
v
Bayern München crestBayern München

Bundesliga | Sat 10 Oct, 14:30

FC Augsburg v Bayern München Stats

Data last updated: Fri 09 Oct 2026, 07:52 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Bundesliga clash features FC Augsburg hosting Bayern München, with Augsburg currently ranked 4th and Bayern 2nd in the table. Augsburg have shown resilience with 7 points and a strong defensive record conceding 1.5 goals per game, while Bayern have been prolific offensively, scoring 3.5 goals per match on average. Augsburg's recent form includes a 100% over 2.5 goals rate, indicating open games, while Bayern's attacking prowess and tactical depth make this a high-stakes encounter with potential for surprises.

BT4Y best bet

FC Augsburg Draw No Bet

  • FC Augsburg ranks 4th with 7 points, showing solid form and defensive resilience.
  • Bayern München leads the league in scoring, averaging 3.5 goals per game.
  • Augsburg has a 100% over 2.5 goals rate, suggesting open and attacking matches.
  • Bayern's average 21.75 shots per game highlight their offensive pressure.
  • The model assigns a 45% chance to FC Augsburg Draw No Bet, indicating strong value at 5.9 .

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies significant value in FC Augsburg Draw No Bet at 5.9 , reflecting a 45% chance of success compared to the market's 16.9% implied probability. Augsburg's solid defensive record and ability to create chances, combined with Bayern's occasional defensive vulnerabilities, underpin this pick. The level of 77% supports the bet's robustness. No data limitations affect this analysis, making the selection a compelling risk-managed option with standard staking advised.

Model Chance31.9% model chance vs 16.9% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance31.9% model chance vs 16.9% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge31.9% model chance vs 16.9% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Confidence Level77%
Positive
Data QualityGood
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

FC Augsburg Draw No Bet is a tactical choice reflecting Augsburg's solid defensive form and ability to challenge Bayern München at home. The data shows Augsburg's resilience and Bayern's occasional defensive lapses, making this bet a balanced approach to a competitive fixture with potential for a close result.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical and data-driven risk management

“Augsburg's disciplined defense and Bayern's occasional defensive gaps create a nuanced tactical battle, making the Draw No Bet a smart way to manage risk while backing Augsburg's chances.”

Key Data Signals

FC Augsburg Draw No Bet evidence

FC Augsburg ranks 4th with 7 points, showing solid form and defensive resilience.

Bayern München leads the league in scoring, averaging 3.5 goals per game.

Augsburg has a 100% over 2.5 goals rate, suggesting open and attacking matches.

Bayern's average 21.75 shots per game highlight their offensive pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

FC Augsburg Draw No Bet notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 4.1, indicating a high-scoring trend.
  • Augsburg's 100% over 2.5 goals rate in recent games and Bayern's 75% rate suggest a fast tempo and open play, increasing the likelihood of multiple goals and dynamic attacking phases in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

FC Augsburg2.75
Avg goals scored
Bayern München3.5
FC Augsburg1.5
Avg goals conceded
Bayern München0.5
FC Augsburg75%
BTTS rate
Bayern München50%
FC Augsburg100%
Over 2.5 goals
Bayern München75%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 69% · edge +1.4 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Both teams demonstrate attacking intent, with Augsburg's 100% over 2.5 goals rate and Bayern's 75% rate indicating open games. Augsburg's 75% BTTS rate versus Bayern's 50% suggests Augsburg's matches often see goals at both ends, supporting a dynamic contest with scoring opportunities for both sides.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFC Augsburg Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 32% vs implied 17% · edge +15 pts
5.9
Check odds @ 5.9
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
FC Augsburg to WinBet365 guide price · model 24%
11
Check odds @ 11
The 31.9% for FC Augsburg Draw No Bet sits against roughly 16.9% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Bayern München have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for FC Augsburg.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

FC Augsburg

LDWW
Last 52W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 1L
19 Sep 2026A Werder Bremen2-3
12 Sep 2026H Bayer Leverkusen2-2
06 Sep 2026A Eintracht Frankfurt4-1
30 Aug 2026H FC Schalke 043-0

Bayern München

WWDW
Last 53W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 0L
18 Sep 2026H Union Berlin7-0
13 Sep 2026A SV Elversberg2-1
05 Sep 2026A FC Schalke 040-0
28 Aug 2026H VfB Stuttgart5-1
Market aligned with main pickFC Augsburg Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 32% vs implied 17% · edge +15 pts
5.9
Check odds @ 5.9
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 37%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
FC Augsburg to WinBet365 guide price · model 24%
11
Check odds @ 11
Recent form data shows Augsburg accumulating 7 points with a strong defensive record conceding 1.5 goals per game, while Bayern leads with 10 points and only 0.5 goals conceded on average. Augsburg's perfect over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Bayern's 75%, indicating Augsburg's matches tend to be more open and high scoring, which could influence match outcome and betting value.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%FC Augsburg Over 2.5
75%Bayern München Over 2.5
4.1H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 4.1, indicating a high-scoring trend. Augsburg's 100% over 2.5 goals rate in recent games and Bayern's 75% rate suggest a fast tempo and open play, increasing the likelihood of multiple goals and dynamic attacking phases in this fixture.

Loading deeper match data…