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Famalicao crestFamalicao
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GIL Vicente crestGIL Vicente

Primeira Liga | Sun 30 Aug, 20:30

Famalicao v GIL Vicente Stats

Data last updated: Sat 29 Aug 2026, 07:54 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Primeira Liga clash features GIL Vicente visiting Famalicao, with GIL Vicente currently enjoying a stronger start to the season. GIL Vicente sits fifth with six points from their opening matches, showing defensive solidity with zero goals conceded so far. Famalicao, ranked 14th, have struggled to find the net consistently and have conceded more frequently. The visitors' tactical discipline and sharper attacking threat set up an intriguing contest under the lights, where GIL Vicente will look to extend their unbeaten run and capitalize on Famalicao's early-season vulnerabilities.

BT4Y best bet

GIL Vicente to Win

  • GIL Vicente holds a 70% to win, with strong value at 3.6 .
  • GIL Vicente have kept clean sheets in all matches so far, highlighting defensive strength.
  • Famalicao have scored only 0.67 goals per game and conceded 1.33, showing offensive struggles.
  • GIL Vicente's Héctor Hernández averages over 3 shots on target per 90 minutes, posing a key goal threat.
  • Famalicao's recent form includes just 1 point from opening matches, contrasting with GIL Vicente's 6 points.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors GIL Vicente to win based on their superior defensive record and more effective attack. GIL Vicente have conceded no goals this season while maintaining a higher average of shots and shots on target, led by Héctor Hernández and T. Touré’s prolific shooting. Famalicao’s lower scoring rate and higher goals conceded underpin the away side's advantage. The offer strong value given the 70% versus a 27.8% implied market chance, making this a compelling selection without price warnings.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance27.8%
Strong positive
GIL Vicente Defensive Record0 goals conceded
Strong positive
Famalicao Offensive Output0.67 goals per game
Negative
Key Player Shooting VolumeHéctor Hernández 3.07 SOT/90
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

GIL Vicente's defensive resilience combined with their attacking firepower, especially from Héctor Hernández, makes them the logical choice to secure victory. Their early season form and clean sheets demonstrate a team in control, while Famalicao's struggles in front of goal and points tally suggest they will find it difficult to contain the visitors or respond effectively.

Main risk

The contrast is obvious, but the wider picture is less straightforward.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and player impact

“GIL Vicente's blend of defensive discipline and attacking threat, led by Hernández and Touré, positions them well to capitalize on Famalicao's early-season inconsistencies and secure a valuable away win.”

Key Data Signals

GIL Vicente to Win evidence

GIL Vicente holds a 70% to win, with strong value at 3.6 .

GIL Vicente have kept clean sheets in all matches so far, highlighting defensive strength.

Famalicao have scored only 0.67 goals per game and conceded 1.33, showing offensive struggles.

GIL Vicente's Héctor Hernández averages over 3 shots on target per 90 minutes, posing a key goal threat.

What To Watch In The Data

GIL Vicente to Win notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.5, indicating moderate scoring.
  • However, GIL Vicente's current defensive form suggests this match may see fewer goals, with a focus on tactical discipline and controlled tempo limiting open-play chances.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Famalicao0.67
Avg goals scored
GIL Vicente1.5
Famalicao1.33
Avg goals conceded
GIL Vicente0
Famalicao67%
BTTS rate
GIL Vicente0%
Famalicao33%
Over 2.5 goals
GIL Vicente0%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 62% · edge +4.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
4
Check odds @ 4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
GIL Vicente have yet to concede this season, while Famalicao have a 67% BTTS rate but low scoring output. This suggests a low likelihood of both teams scoring, with GIL Vicente's defense likely to keep a clean sheet and limit goal opportunities.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGIL Vicente to WinBetfred guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
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GIL Vicente Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The current of 3.6 for a GIL Vicente win represent strong value given the model's 70% win probability. This discrepancy indicates the market underestimates GIL Vicente's chances, making the bet attractive without price sensitivity concerns.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Famalicao7.5
Avg corners for
GIL Vicente5
Famalicao11.5
Avg total corners
GIL Vicente7
Famalicao2.5
Avg yellow cards
GIL Vicente2
Famalicao7.5
Avg shots
GIL Vicente13
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 58% · edge -6.4 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
GIL Vicente average fewer corners but generate more shots and shots on target than Famalicao, reflecting more efficient attacking play. Both teams maintain moderate card counts, indicating a balanced physical contest without excessive fouling.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Famalicao

LLD
Last 50W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 2L
23 Aug 2026A Santa Clara0-1
16 Aug 2026H Maritimo1-2
07 Aug 2026A Estoril1-1

GIL Vicente

WW
Last 52W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 0L
24 Aug 2026H Casa Pia2-0
09 Aug 2026H Rio Ave1-0
Market aligned with main pickGIL Vicente to WinBetfred guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
GIL Vicente Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
GIL Vicente's unbeaten start with six points and zero goals conceded contrasts sharply with Famalicao's single point and defensive frailties. This form disparity underpins the in GIL Vicente to maintain momentum and secure a win in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Famalicao wins
4Draws
3GIL Vicente wins
01 Feb 2026GIL Vicente v Famalicao5-0
24 Aug 2025Famalicao v GIL Vicente0-0
17 Feb 2025GIL Vicente v Famalicao0-2
14 Sep 2024Famalicao v GIL Vicente1-1
29 Mar 2024GIL Vicente v Famalicao1-2
04 Nov 2023Famalicao v GIL Vicente3-1
Market aligned with main pickGIL Vicente to WinBetfred guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The head-to-head sample of ten matches shows an average of 2.5 goals per game, but recent encounters have been tighter defensively. This historical context supports the expectation of a closely contested match where GIL Vicente's defensive strength could be decisive.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Primeira Liga

Famalicao3
Played
GIL Vicente2
Famalicao0.7
Avg goals for
GIL Vicente1.5
Famalicao1.3
Avg goals against
GIL Vicente0
Famalicao0
Clean sheets
GIL Vicente2
Market aligned with main pickGIL Vicente to WinBetfred guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
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GIL Vicente Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Season-long data shows GIL Vicente's strong defensive record with no goals conceded and a higher average of shots on target, supporting their capacity to control matches. Famalicao's lower scoring rate and higher goals conceded per game highlight their struggles to compete effectively at this stage.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
6GIL Vicente622003
15Famalicao13012-2
GIL Vicente's fifth-place standing early in the season reflects their solid start and competitive edge, while Famalicao's 14th place and low points tally indicate pressure to improve. The standings provide context for the stakes and motivation levels in this match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Famalicao Over 2.5
0%GIL Vicente Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.5, indicating moderate scoring. However, GIL Vicente's current defensive form suggests this match may see fewer goals, with a focus on tactical discipline and controlled tempo limiting open-play chances.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.