Football Stats Hub

Excelsior crestExcelsior
v
Groningen crestGroningen

Eredivisie | Sun 11 Oct, 15:45

Excelsior v Groningen Stats

Data last updated: Sat 10 Oct 2026, 08:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Excelsior and Groningen meet in an Eredivisie clash where both teams have shown attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities. Excelsior sits slightly higher in the table but both sides have similar points, making this a competitive fixture. Recent matches highlight a tendency for open play and goal-scoring opportunities, with Excelsior boasting a perfect over 2.5 goals rate and Groningen also frequently involved in high-scoring games. Tactical openness and offensive roles suggest a lively encounter with multiple goal chances expected.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Excelsior has a 100% rate of matches with over 2.5 goals this season.
  • Groningen’s games have featured over 2.5 goals in 80% of outings.
  • The last 10 head-to-head matches averaged 3.2 goals per game.
  • Both teams average double-digit shots per match, indicating attacking pressure.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model projects a 58% chance for over 3.5 goals, well above the 44.4% implied by current , indicating solid value. Both teams have strong attacking stats and high over 2.5 goals rates, with recent form and head-to-head data supporting a high-scoring game. The attacking roles of key players like Nils Eggens and V. Sulzbacher, combined with defensive frailties, create a favorable environment for multiple goals. No data limitations or price warnings reduce in this selection.

Model Chance58% model chance vs 44.4% implied (+13.6 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance58% model chance vs 44.4% implied (+13.6 pts)
Strong positive
Over 2.5 Goals RateExcelsior 100%, Groningen 80%
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals3.2 goals per game
Positive
Shots per GameExcelsior 11.2, Groningen 14.2
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking match as Excelsior and Groningen both prioritize offense but show defensive vulnerabilities. The high volume of shots and previous high-scoring encounters suggest multiple goals, making over 3.5 goals a compelling choice. The attacking roles of key players and recent form data reinforce the likelihood of a lively, goal-rich game.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Attacking tendencies and statistical support for high goals

“This fixture features two teams with strong offensive tendencies and less defensive solidity, creating ideal conditions for a high-scoring match. The statistical trends and player attacking profiles strongly support the over 3.5 goals angle.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Excelsior has a 100% rate of matches with over 2.5 goals this season.

Groningen’s games have featured over 2.5 goals in 80% of outings.

The last 10 head-to-head matches averaged 3.2 goals per game.

Both teams average double-digit shots per match, indicating attacking pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 3.2 per game, indicating a historical trend towards open, high-scoring matches.
  • This trend, combined with recent form and tactical openness, suggests a strong tempo and multiple goal opportunities in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Excelsior2
Avg goals scored
Groningen1.8
Excelsior1.4
Avg goals conceded
Groningen2.2
Excelsior80%
BTTS rate
Groningen80%
Excelsior100%
Over 2.5 goals
Groningen80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 44% · edge +13.6 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 26%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Both teams have high over 2.5 goals rates—100% for Excelsior and 80% for Groningen—demonstrating consistent involvement in high-scoring games. Their matches often feature both teams scoring, supported by their attacking styles and defensive openness, suggesting a strong likelihood of multiple goals and BTTS scenarios.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 65% · edge +12.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
Excelsior Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Excelsior to WinBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Groningen Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 24%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
The 58% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 44.4% implied by the current price (+13.6 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Excelsior and 80% for Groningen, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Excelsior

DLDWW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 2L
19 Sep 2026A Ajax2-2
13 Sep 2026H Utrecht1-2
08 Sep 2026A NEC Nijmegen2-2
05 Sep 2026A Willem II3-0
29 Aug 2026H Sparta Rotterdam2-1

Groningen

WDDLL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 2L
18 Sep 2026H PEC Zwolle3-0
12 Sep 2026A GO Ahead Eagles1-1
06 Sep 2026H Twente2-2
28 Aug 2026H Fortuna Sittard2-3
23 Aug 2026A PSV Eindhoven1-5
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 82% vs implied 67% · edge +15 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Load more odds for this section
Excelsior Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Excelsior to WinBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Groningen Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 24%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Groningen to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Excelsior has secured 8 points recently with all matches exceeding 2.5 goals, highlighting their attacking potency and defensive lapses. Groningen’s recent 5 points include games with frequent goal exchanges, supporting the expectation for a high-scoring encounter. This recent form data aligns well with the over 3.5 goals projection.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Excelsior Over 2.5
80%Groningen Over 2.5
3.2H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 3.2 per game, indicating a historical trend towards open, high-scoring matches. This trend, combined with recent form and tactical openness, suggests a strong tempo and multiple goal opportunities in this fixture.

Loading deeper match data…