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Estrela crestEstrela
v
Famalicao crestFamalicao

Primeira Liga | Mon 11 May, 20:15

Estrela v Famalicao Stats

Data last updated: Wed 24 Jun 2026, 16:25 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Estrela face Famalicao in Primeira Liga on Mon 11 May, 20:15. Famalicao are in superb form, carrying a 10-match unbeaten league run into this fixture. Conversely, Estrela Amadora have collapsed with five straight defeats and look defensively vulnerable. Only 29 goals conceded in 32 matches highlights their superior defensive structure.

BT4Y best bet

A superior side while protecting against the draw

  • At 7/1, Estrela Win implies roughly 13%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • Famalicao’s defensive stability and superior technical metrics make them strong favourites to avoid defeat against a side lacking .
  • Famalicao have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 0 for Estrela.
  • Famalicao have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Estrela Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Estrela sit 15 in the table, while Famalicao sit 5, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 27% for Estrela Win sits against roughly 13% implied by the current price. Famalicao have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 0 for Estrela. Famalicao’s defensive stability and superior technical metrics make them strong favourites to avoid defeat against a side lacking .

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 13% implied
Positive
Famalicao have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points.Visible data support
Positive
Famalicao have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Famalicao’s defensive stability and superior technical metrics make them.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Estrela Win is the preferred angle because famalicao’s defensive stability and superior technical metrics make them strong favourites to avoid defeat against a side lacking . Famalicao have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 0 for Estrela. Famalicao are consistent scorers but have recently seen 2-2 scorelines.

Main risk

Famalicao are consistent scorers but have recently seen 2-2 scorelines.

Key Data Signals

Estrela Win evidence

Famalicao’s defensive stability and superior technical metrics make them strong favourites to avoid defeat against a side lacking.

Famalicao have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 0 for Estrela.

Famalicao have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Estrela Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Estrela sit 15 in the table, while Famalicao sit 5, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Estrela Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Estrela3.4
    Avg corners for
    Famalicao5.6
    Estrela9.2
    Avg total corners
    Famalicao10
    Estrela2.8
    Avg yellow cards
    Famalicao3.6
    Estrela11.2
    Avg shots
    Famalicao11.2
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 53% vs implied 55% · edge -2.3 pts
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    more Primeira Liga analysisfull betting preview for Estrela v Famalicaocorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Estrela0.6
    Avg goals scored
    Famalicao1.6
    Estrela1.8
    Avg goals conceded
    Famalicao1.4
    Estrela40%
    BTTS rate
    Famalicao80%
    Estrela40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Famalicao60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 73% vs implied 31% · edge +42.5 pts
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 27%
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickEstrela to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 27% · edge +0 pts
    3.7
    Check odds @ 3.7
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 73%
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    Estrela Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    2.42
    Check odds @ 2.42
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Estrela to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Estrela

    LLLLL
    Last 50W 0D 5L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 2D 7L
    02 May 2026A Moreirense2-3
    26 Apr 2026H FC Porto1-2
    19 Apr 2026A Arouca0-1
    11 Apr 2026H Sporting CP0-1
    04 Apr 2026A Nacional0-2

    Famalicao

    DWDDD
    Last 51W 4D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 5D 0L
    02 May 2026H Benfica2-2
    26 Apr 2026A Estoril1-0
    19 Apr 2026A SC Braga2-2
    10 Apr 2026H Moreirense1-1
    04 Apr 2026A FC Porto2-2
    Market aligned with main pickEstrela to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 27% · edge +0 pts
    3.7
    Check odds @ 3.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Estrela Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    2.42
    Check odds @ 2.42
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    2Estrela wins
    2Draws
    1Famalicao wins
    27 Dec 2025Famalicao v Estrela2-3
    25 Jan 2025Famalicao v Estrela0-0
    19 Aug 2024Estrela v Famalicao0-3
    16 Mar 2024Famalicao v Estrela0-0
    29 Oct 2023Estrela v Famalicao1-0
    Market aligned with main pickEstrela to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 27% · edge +0 pts
    3.7
    Check odds @ 3.7
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 73%
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Estrela to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Primeira Liga

    Estrela34
    Played
    Famalicao34
    Estrela1.1
    Avg goals for
    Famalicao1.2
    Estrela1.6
    Avg goals against
    Famalicao0.9
    Estrela8
    Clean sheets
    Famalicao17
    Market aligned with main pickEstrela to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 27% · edge +0 pts
    3.7
    Check odds @ 3.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Estrela Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    2.42
    Check odds @ 2.42
    Season data supports Estrela to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    5Famalicao56341511813
    15Estrela303461216-18
    Estrela sit in position 15, while Famalicao sit in position 5, so table pressure belongs in the Estrela Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Estrela Over 2.5
    60%Famalicao Over 2.5
    1.8H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Estrela sit at 40% and Famalicao sit at 60% with the H2H average at 1.8 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Estrela v Famalicao prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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