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Estoril crestEstoril
v
Casa Pia crestCasa Pia

Primeira Liga | Sun 20 Sep, 18:00

Estoril v Casa Pia Stats

Data last updated: Sat 19 Sep 2026, 08:19 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Estoril and Casa Pia meet in the Primeira Liga with both sides struggling to find the net this season. Estoril have scored only twice in six league matches despite generating nearly 12 shots per game, while Casa Pia have failed to score in all three away fixtures. Defensive vulnerabilities are evident, especially for Casa Pia who have conceded 15 goals, the highest in the league. Estoril's reliance on Yanis Begraoui for goals and Casa Pia's ongoing away goal drought set the stage for a low-scoring encounter at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, where recent meetings have also been tight and low on goals.

BT4Y lean · price warning

BTTS No

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 77%, above the 64% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Estoril average 11.9 shots per game but only 0.5 goals scored over last 10 matches
  • Casa Pia have failed to score in all three away league matches this season
  • Both teams have low BTTS rates of 20% this season, indicating frequent shutouts
  • Casa Pia have conceded 15 goals in six matches, the highest in the league
Price warning

BTTS No is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 77% while the model sits nearer 64% (-12.9 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Under 2.5 Goals shows a +15 pts edge at 2.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model rates BTTS No at 64% chance, above the 50% implied by the , reflecting both teams' poor scoring efficiency despite reasonable shot volumes. Estoril's heavy reliance on Yanis Begraoui for goals and Casa Pia's continued away goal drought support the likelihood that at least one side will fail to score. Defensive frailties on Casa Pia's side increase risk but also suggest a low-scoring game rather than a high-scoring shootout. The model sees clear value at the current price, making BTTS No a sensible selection for this fixture.

Estoril shot volume vs low scoringHigh shot attempts but low goals (0.5 per game)
Strong positive
Casa Pia away scoring droughtNo goals in 3 away matches
Strong positive
Casa Pia defensive weakness15 goals conceded in 6 matches
Negative
Reliance on BegraouiBoth Estoril goals scored by one player
Positive
Market price vs model chanceOdds imply 50%, model chance 64%
Strong positive
Main risk

Eight conceded across six matches is hardly ideal, but it is not the sort of defensive collapse that normally explains a winless start on its own.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · BTTS No rationale

“This fixture is shaped by two teams struggling to convert chances, making a match without both teams scoring the most plausible scenario. Casa Pia's away struggles and Estoril's dependence on a single scorer reinforce the low-scoring outlook.”

Key Data Signals

BTTS No evidence

Estoril average 11.9 shots per game but only 0.5 goals scored over last 10 matches

Casa Pia have failed to score in all three away league matches this season

Both teams have low BTTS rates of 20% this season, indicating frequent shutouts

Casa Pia have conceded 15 goals in six matches, the highest in the league

What To Watch In The Data

BTTS No notes

  • Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game is 2.4, indicating relatively low scoring.
  • Both teams have low Over 2.5 Goals rates this season (20% for Estoril, 40% for Casa Pia), and recent head-to-head matches at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota have been low scoring.
  • This trend supports a cautious tempo and limited goal-scoring opportunities in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Estoril0.2
Avg goals scored
Casa Pia0.2
Estoril1.4
Avg goals conceded
Casa Pia2.8
Estoril20%
BTTS rate
Casa Pia20%
Estoril20%
Over 2.5 goals
Casa Pia40%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS NoBetfred guide price · Model 64% vs implied 77% · edge -12.9 pts
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 40%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 35%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Both teams have demonstrated poor finishing despite reasonable shot volumes, with Estoril scoring only twice and Casa Pia once in six matches. Both have low BTTS rates of 20%, and recent head-to-head matches at this venue have been low scoring, reinforcing the expectation that at least one side will fail to score in this fixture.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Estoril

LDLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 4L
14 Sep 2026A SC Braga0-1
07 Sep 2026H Arouca0-0
31 Aug 2026A Benfica1-2
22 Aug 2026H Rio Ave0-2
16 Aug 2026A Nacional0-2

Casa Pia

LDLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 5L
12 Sep 2026H FC Porto1-4
06 Sep 2026A Vitória SC0-0
30 Aug 2026H Moreirense0-1
24 Aug 2026A GIL Vicente0-2
17 Aug 2026H Benfica0-7
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 48% · edge +14.2 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Casa Pia to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
5
Check odds @ 5
Casa Pia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 44%
3
Check odds @ 3
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Estoril Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Estoril to WinBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Recent form data shows both teams have scored only 0.2 goals per game while conceding 1.4 (Estoril) and 2.8 (Casa Pia). Both have a low BTTS rate of 20%, indicating frequent shutouts. Estoril's slightly better defensive record contrasts with Casa Pia's heavy goals conceded, but neither side has found consistent scoring form, supporting the BTTS No outcome.

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Primeira Liga hubfull betting preview for Estoril v Casa Piacorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
17Estoril26024-6
18Casa Pia16015-14
Both teams occupy the bottom of the Primeira Liga table, with Estoril 17th and Casa Pia 18th, reflecting their struggles this season. The pressure to improve results is high, but their poor scoring form and defensive issues suggest that this fixture may remain cagey and low scoring, consistent with the BTTS No selection.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 58% · edge +6.5 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Casa Pia to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
5
Check odds @ 5
Casa Pia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 44%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 40%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Estoril Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Estoril to WinBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
The BTTS No market is priced at even (2.0) implying a 50% chance, while the model estimates a 64% probability, indicating positive value. The price reflects market caution due to Casa Pia's defensive frailty, but the low scoring efficiency of both teams supports the selection as a value bet rather than a price-sensitive watch.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Estoril4
Avg corners for
Casa Pia3.8
Estoril9
Avg total corners
Casa Pia10.6
Estoril2.8
Avg yellow cards
Casa Pia2.2
Estoril12.2
Avg shots
Casa Pia10.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 58% · edge +6.5 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
3
Check odds @ 3
Estoril averages 12.2 shots and 4 corners per game, while Casa Pia averages 10.4 shots and 3.8 corners. Both teams show moderate attacking activity but low shot accuracy and conversion. Discipline-wise, Estoril averages 2.8 yellow cards and Casa Pia 2.2, suggesting a moderately physical game but no extreme card risk that would drastically alter the match flow.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Estoril wins
5Draws
1Casa Pia wins
07 Mar 2026Estoril v Casa Pia0-0
03 Oct 2025Casa Pia v Estoril2-2
29 Apr 2025Casa Pia v Estoril1-3
15 Dec 2024Estoril v Casa Pia0-2
08 Apr 2024Casa Pia v Estoril0-0
10 Nov 2023Estoril v Casa Pia4-0
Best odds for this sectionCasa Pia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 34% vs implied 20% · edge +13.9 pts
5
Check odds @ 5
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 40%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Estoril to WinBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 35%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The last 10 head-to-head matches between Estoril and Casa Pia have averaged 2.4 goals per game, reflecting a generally low-scoring rivalry. Recent meetings at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota saw Estoril fail to score in two consecutive matches, including a 0-2 loss and a 0-0 draw, which weakly supports the BTTS No pick by highlighting historical scoring difficulties for both sides in this venue.
Season team stats

Primeira Liga

Estoril6
Played
Casa Pia6
Estoril0.3
Avg goals for
Casa Pia0.2
Estoril1.3
Avg goals against
Casa Pia2.5
Estoril1
Clean sheets
Casa Pia1
Best odds for this sectionCasa Pia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 34% vs implied 20% · edge +13.9 pts
5
Check odds @ 5
Load more odds for this section
Casa Pia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 44%
3
Check odds @ 3
Estoril Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Estoril to WinBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Season-long stats reveal Estoril's average of 11.9 attempts per game contrasts sharply with their low scoring rate, illustrating poor conversion. Casa Pia's defensive record is the worst in the league with 15 goals conceded in six matches, while their attack remains blunt, especially away from home. These profiles suggest a match where defensive lapses may occur but scoring remains limited.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Estoril Over 2.5
40%Casa Pia Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game is 2.4, indicating relatively low scoring. Both teams have low Over 2.5 Goals rates this season (20% for Estoril, 40% for Casa Pia), and recent head-to-head matches at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota have been low scoring. This trend supports a cautious tempo and limited goal-scoring opportunities in this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Estoril v Casa Pia prediction

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