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Eintracht Frankfurt crestEintracht Frankfurt
v
1. FC Köln crest1. FC Köln

Bundesliga | Fri 16 Oct, 19:30

Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln Stats

Data last updated: Fri 16 Oct 2026, 13:03 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Köln meet in a Bundesliga fixture where attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities set the stage for a high-scoring encounter. Frankfurt has conceded over three goals per game on average recently, while Köln also shows a tendency for open matches with a strong goal-scoring rate. Both teams have been involved in matches with multiple goals, suggesting a tactical openness and potential defensive lapses. The match timing on a Friday evening adds an element of unpredictability as both sides seek to climb the league table with positive results.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Eintracht Frankfurt concedes 3.2 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.
  • FC Köln averages 1.6 goals scored per game with 80% of matches over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams have high BTTS rates: Frankfurt 80%, Köln 100%.
  • Recent form shows Frankfurt’s matches always exceed 2.5 goals, Köln’s 80% rate supports attacking play.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 3.5 Goals as a value bet with a 58% chance versus a 52.4% implied market probability, reflecting a small positive edge. Both teams demonstrate attacking potency and defensive weaknesses, with Frankfurt’s matches consistently high scoring and Köln’s offensive players generating numerous shots on target. The combination of high shot volumes, goal concession rates, and BTTS frequencies supports the likelihood of a goal-rich game. No data limitations or price warnings reduce , making this a solid selection for bettors seeking an exciting, open contest.

Model Chance58% model chance vs 52.4% implied (+5.6 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance58% model chance vs 52.4% implied (+5.6 pts)
Neutral
Value Edge58% model chance vs 52.4% implied (+5.6 pts)
Positive
Recent Form Goal RatesFrankfurt 100% Over 2.5, Köln 80% Over 2.5
Strong positive
Shots and SOTHigh average shots and shots on target from both teams
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a lively encounter with both Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Köln pushing forward aggressively. Frankfurt’s defensive struggles combined with Köln’s consistent attacking threat create fertile ground for multiple goals. The data-driven outlook aligns with the tactical openness seen in recent matches, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling choice for this Bundesliga clash.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and defensive weaknesses

“This fixture features two teams with attacking flair but defensive vulnerabilities, setting up a high-scoring game scenario. The statistical indicators strongly favor Over 3.5 Goals as both sides generate significant shot volumes and concede frequently.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Eintracht Frankfurt concedes 3.2 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.

FC Köln averages 1.6 goals scored per game with 80% of matches over 2.5 goals.

Both teams have high BTTS rates: Frankfurt 80%, Köln 100%.

Recent form shows Frankfurt’s matches always exceed 2.5 goals, Köln’s 80% rate supports attacking play.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.7, slightly below the Over 3.5 threshold but indicative of a generally open fixture.
  • Recent form and attacking stats suggest an upward trend in goal frequency, supporting the expectation of a high-tempo, goal-laden match.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Eintracht Frankfurt1.8
Avg goals scored
1. FC Köln1.6
Eintracht Frankfurt3.2
Avg goals conceded
1. FC Köln2
Eintracht Frankfurt80%
BTTS rate
1. FC Köln100%
Eintracht Frankfurt100%
Over 2.5 goals
1. FC Köln80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 52% · edge +5.6 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
3
Check odds @ 3
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 26%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Both teams show high BTTS rates, with Frankfurt at 80% and Köln at 100%, reflecting frequent mutual scoring. Combined with Frankfurt’s 3.2 goals conceded per game and Köln’s 1.6 goals scored, the data supports a match with multiple goals and open play, reinforcing the Over 3.5 Goals angle.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 74% · edge +4.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
1. FC Köln Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
1. FC Köln to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 26%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
The 58% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 52.4% implied by the current price (+5.6 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Eintracht Frankfurt and 80% for 1. FC Köln, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Bundesliga hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Eintracht Frankfurt

LDWLD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 2L
10 Oct 2026A RB Leipzig0-6
19 Sep 2026H SC Freiburg2-2
12 Sep 2026A FSV Mainz 053-1
06 Sep 2026H FC Augsburg1-4
29 Aug 2026A Union Berlin3-3

1. FC Köln

WLDLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 2L
11 Oct 2026H Borussia Mönchengladbach2-1
19 Sep 2026A Hamburger SV1-2
12 Sep 2026H Werder Bremen1-1
04 Sep 2026A VfB Stuttgart1-4
29 Aug 2026H 1899 Hoffenheim3-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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1. FC Köln Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
1. FC Köln to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 26%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Eintracht Frankfurt Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2
Check odds @ 2
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Eintracht Frankfurt to WinBetfred guide price · model 30%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Recent matches for Frankfurt have all gone over 2.5 goals, highlighting a pattern of open, high-scoring games. Köln’s 80% rate of Over 2.5 goals in recent fixtures complements this trend, suggesting both teams continue to engage in attacking, goal-rich encounters.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Eintracht Frankfurt Over 2.5
80%1. FC Köln Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.7, slightly below the Over 3.5 threshold but indicative of a generally open fixture. Recent form and attacking stats suggest an upward trend in goal frequency, supporting the expectation of a high-tempo, goal-laden match.

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