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Eibar crestEibar
v
Las Palmas crestLas Palmas

Segunda División | Sun 27 Sep, 17:30

Eibar v Las Palmas Stats

Data last updated: Sat 26 Sep 2026, 08:00 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Eibar currently sits second in the Segunda División, showcasing strong form with 15 points from recent matches, while Las Palmas is positioned tenth with 10 points. Eibar's defensive solidity is notable, conceding just 0.2 goals per game, contrasting with Las Palmas' more porous defense allowing 1.4 goals per match. The home side's tactical setup emphasizes control and efficient finishing, aiming to capitalize on their momentum and home advantage. Las Palmas will seek to disrupt this rhythm but face a challenging task against a confident and well-organized Eibar side.

BT4Y best bet

Eibar to Win

  • Eibar ranks 2nd with 15 points, Las Palmas 10th with 7 points.
  • Eibar concedes only 0.2 goals per game, indicating strong defense.
  • Las Palmas averages 1.4 goals conceded per match, showing defensive vulnerability.
  • Eibar's recent form includes a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate, suggesting attacking potency.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 74% chance for Eibar to win, reflecting their superior recent form and defensive record. Eibar's ability to limit goals conceded to just 0.2 per game contrasts sharply with Las Palmas' 1.4, underscoring a defensive edge. The price at 1.95 offers positive value with a 22.7% edge, supported by Eibar's higher points tally and home advantage. This combination of statistical control and tactical control makes Eibar a strong favorite in this matchup.

Recent FormEibar's 15 points vs Las Palmas' 7 points
Strong positive
Defensive StrengthEibar concedes 0.2 goals per game
Strong positive
Price Value66.3% model chance vs 51.3% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Home AdvantageEibar playing at home with strong momentum
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Eibar's consistent defensive performance and superior recent form make them the tactical and statistical favorite to secure victory. Their ability to control matches and limit opponent chances is a decisive factor, while Las Palmas' defensive frailties add to Eibar's advantage in this contest.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match control and defensive solidity

“Eibar's disciplined defense and efficient attack set a clear tactical blueprint that should see them control the game against Las Palmas, whose defensive lapses could be costly.”

Key Data Signals

Eibar to Win evidence

Eibar ranks 2nd with 15 points, Las Palmas 10th with 7 points.

Eibar concedes only 0.2 goals per game, indicating strong defense.

Las Palmas averages 1.4 goals conceded per match, showing defensive vulnerability.

Eibar's recent form includes a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate, suggesting attacking potency.

What To Watch In The Data

Eibar to Win notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.5, with Eibar's recent matches showing a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate.
  • This suggests a moderate tempo with potential for multiple goals, primarily driven by Eibar's attacking efficiency and Las Palmas' defensive vulnerabilities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Eibar2.2
Avg goals scored
Las Palmas1.2
Eibar0.2
Avg goals conceded
Las Palmas1.4
Eibar20%
BTTS rate
Las Palmas40%
Eibar60%
Over 2.5 goals
Las Palmas40%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 51% · edge +3.2 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 37%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The low BTTS rate for Eibar at 20% combined with their defensive strength suggests a controlled scoring environment. Las Palmas' higher BTTS rate of 40% indicates some attacking threat, but Eibar's defensive discipline likely limits both teams scoring, favoring a low-goal, single-winner scenario.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Eibar

WWWWW
Last 55W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 0D 1L
19 Sep 2026A Eldense2-1
14 Sep 2026A Celta de Vigo II4-0
06 Sep 2026H Granada CF3-0
30 Aug 2026A FC Andorra1-0
23 Aug 2026H Valladolid1-0

Las Palmas

LWDLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 2L
20 Sep 2026H Burgos1-2
12 Sep 2026A Cadiz1-0
04 Sep 2026H Leganes0-0
29 Aug 2026A Girona2-5
22 Aug 2026A AD Ceuta FC2-0
Market aligned with main pickEibar to WinBetUK guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Eibar Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Eibar's recent form is strong, accumulating 15 points with a solid defensive record of 0.2 goals conceded per game, contrasting with Las Palmas' 7 points and 1.4 goals conceded. This form disparity underlines Eibar's control and momentum heading into the match, supporting their win prospects.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickEibar to WinBetUK guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Eibar Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 66.3% for Eibar to Win sits against roughly 51.3% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Eibar have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 7 for Las Palmas.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Eibar Over 2.5
40%Las Palmas Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.5, with Eibar's recent matches showing a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate. This suggests a moderate tempo with potential for multiple goals, primarily driven by Eibar's attacking efficiency and Las Palmas' defensive vulnerabilities.

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