Ebbsfleet United

Gillingham

Friendlies Clubs | Fri 31 Jul, 19:00

Ebbsfleet United v Gillingham Stats

Data last updated: Thu 30 Jul 2026, 04:14 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This friendly match between Ebbsfleet United and Gillingham offers an intriguing attacking contest as both sides prepare for the upcoming season. Ebbsfleet United have shown a tendency for high-scoring games, with an 80% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals recently, while Gillingham's defensive solidity contrasts with a lower over 2.5 rate of 33%. The game is likely to feature open play and attacking intent from Ebbsfleet United, testing Gillingham's disciplined defense. The fixture's friendly nature adds unpredictability, with both teams experimenting tactically and focusing on offensive transitions.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Over 2.5 Goals

Price warning: current odds imply about 65%, above the 58% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
Ebbsfleet United have an 80% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches.
Gillingham maintain a strong defensive record with only 0.33 goals conceded on average.
Recent head-to-head shows an average of 3 goals in their only meeting.
Ebbsfleet United score 1.8 goals per game, indicating attacking potency.

Price warning

Over 2.5 Goals is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 65% while the model sits nearer 58% (-6.7 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Ebbsfleet United Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 3.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model favors Over 2.5 Goals with a 57.8% chance, supported by Ebbsfleet United's high scoring frequency and openness in attack. Their 80% over 2.5 rate and 1.8 goals per game highlight a tendency for matches with multiple goals. Gillingham's solid defense lowers the chance slightly, but the head-to-head average of 3 goals and friendly match context encourage offensive play. No price warning is needed, and the data quality is sufficient to trust these signals. This combination suggests a good opportunity for Over 2.5 Goals in this fixture.

Price / value58% model chance vs 65% implied (-6.7 pts)

Negative

Ebbsfleet United Over 2.5 Rate80% recent matches

Strong positive

Gillingham Defensive Record0.33 goals conceded per game

Positive

Head-to-Head Average Goals3 goals in 1 meeting

Positive

Match TypeFriendly with attacking openness

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with Ebbsfleet United pushing forward aggressively, leveraging their recent high-scoring form. Gillingham's strong defensive record may keep the scoreline closer, but the attacking impetus from Ebbsfleet suggests Over 2.5 Goals is a sensible call based on current form and match context.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal scoring potential and match tempo

“Ebbsfleet United's offensive approach combined with Gillingham's occasional defensive lapses in friendlies creates a fertile ground for multiple goals. The fixture's nature encourages experimentation, often leading to more open play and scoring chances.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Ebbsfleet United have an 80% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches.

Gillingham maintain a strong defensive record with only 0.33 goals conceded on average.

Recent head-to-head shows an average of 3 goals in their only meeting.

Ebbsfleet United score 1.8 goals per game, indicating attacking potency.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

The single head-to-head meeting between these teams averaged 3 goals, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals trend.
Ebbsfleet United's recent matches show an 80% over 2.5 rate, while Gillingham's is lower at 33%.
This suggests that the tempo and attacking intent from Ebbsfleet could drive a higher-scoring game, especially in a friendly context where defensive rigidity is less prioritized.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Ebbsfleet United1.8

Avg goals scored

Gillingham1.33

Ebbsfleet United2

Avg goals conceded

Gillingham0.33

Ebbsfleet United80%

BTTS rate

Gillingham0%

Ebbsfleet United80%

Over 2.5 goals

Gillingham33%

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 58% vs implied 65% · edge -6.7 pts

1.55

Check odds @ 1.55

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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%

2.38

Check odds @ 2.38

Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 76%

1.18

Check odds @ 1.18

Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%

2.38

Check odds @ 2.38

Recent form shows Ebbsfleet United's matches frequently exceed 2.5 goals, with an 80% rate and 1.8 goals scored per game. Gillingham's defensive solidity lowers the BTTS likelihood, reflected in their 0% BTTS rate, suggesting they often keep clean sheets. The head-to-head average of 3 goals supports a higher scoring game, indicating Over 2.5 Goals is plausible despite BTTS uncertainty.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 58% vs implied 65% · edge -6.7 pts

1.55

Check odds @ 1.55

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Ebbsfleet United Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%

Check odds @ 3

Ebbsfleet United to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%

Check odds @ 4

Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%

Check odds @ 4

Gillingham Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%

1.38

Check odds @ 1.38

Gillingham to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced without clear data, but the model's 57.8% chance indicates a moderate edge. The pricing should be monitored for shifts that better reflect the attacking tendencies of Ebbsfleet United and the defensive caution of Gillingham. This is a watch-worthy market with potential value if drift favorably.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Ebbsfleet United

WDLWL

Last 52W 1D 2L

Last 5 record

Last 102W 2D 3L

28 Jul 2026A Cray Valley PM3-2

24 Jul 2026H Cardiff MET1-1

21 Jul 2026H West Ham United U211-2

14 Jul 2026A Aveley4-1

11 Jul 2026A Wycombe0-4

Gillingham

WLW

Last 52W 0D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 102W 0D 1L

21 Jul 2026H Millwall1-0

18 Jul 2026H Charlton0-1

14 Jul 2026A Dover3-0

Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

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Ebbsfleet United Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%

Check odds @ 3

Ebbsfleet United to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%

Check odds @ 4

DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%

Check odds @ 4

Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 72%

1.17

Check odds @ 1.17

Gillingham Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%

1.38

Check odds @ 1.38

Gillingham to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

Ebbsfleet United's recent form features a strong tendency for matches with over 2.5 goals, scoring 1.8 goals per game and conceding 2, indicating open games. Gillingham's form shows fewer goals conceded (0.33 per game) and a lower over 2.5 rate (33%), reflecting a more cautious approach. This contrast suggests a game where Ebbsfleet's attack may overcome Gillingham's defense, favoring Over 2.5 Goals.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Ebbsfleet United wins

0Draws

0Gillingham wins

22 Jul 2025Ebbsfleet United v Gillingham2-1

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 58% vs implied 65% · edge -6.7 pts

1.55

Check odds @ 1.55

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Ebbsfleet United to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%

Check odds @ 4

DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%

Check odds @ 4

Gillingham to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

The head-to-head sample is limited to one match, which ended with an average of 3 goals scored. This small sample weakly supports the Over 2.5 Goals pick, but the friendly nature and differing team forms mean current attacking and defensive trends provide stronger guidance for this fixture.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Friendlies Clubs

Ebbsfleet United8

Played

Gillingham4

Ebbsfleet United1.4

Avg goals for

Gillingham1.5

Ebbsfleet United1.8

Avg goals against

Gillingham0.5

Ebbsfleet United1

Clean sheets

Gillingham2

Best odds for this sectionEbbsfleet United Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts

Check odds @ 3

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Ebbsfleet United to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%

Check odds @ 4

Gillingham Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%

1.38

Check odds @ 1.38

Gillingham to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

Season-long statistics highlight Ebbsfleet United's offensive output with an average of 1.8 goals per match and a high over 2.5 goals occurrence. Gillingham's defensive record is notably stronger, conceding only 0.33 goals per game, which tempers the overall goal expectation. The combination suggests a match with potential for multiple goals, especially if Ebbsfleet United maintain their attacking intensity.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Ebbsfleet United Over 2.5

33%Gillingham Over 2.5

3H2H avg goals

The single head-to-head meeting between these teams averaged 3 goals, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals trend. Ebbsfleet United's recent matches show an 80% over 2.5 rate, while Gillingham's is lower at 33%. This suggests that the tempo and attacking intent from Ebbsfleet could drive a higher-scoring game, especially in a friendly context where defensive rigidity is less prioritized.

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Betting context

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Football Stats Hub

Ebbsfleet United v Gillingham Stats

Match Report

Over 2.5 Goals

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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Ebbsfleet United

Gillingham

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Football Stats Hub

Ebbsfleet United v Gillingham Stats

Match Report

Over 2.5 Goals

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Ebbsfleet United

Gillingham

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